Brain storm: what are the pitfalls of operation peace spring

[Taskforce]

Everybody knows the benefits of this peace spring:
- create a wedge between US and YPG
- security: neutralizing enemy positions, logistics and tunnels
- create a buffer zone for refugees (will the buffer zone be big enough though?)
- have bargaining chip at the negotiation table

It is good to sum up the benefits of this new operation to convince the Turkish public and our allies (and so called allies).

But what are the (possible!!!) pitfalls:
- Turkey could end up like the US in 2003 with war against Saddam (lots of money spend and at the end of the game no benefits for the US). US wasted a lot of money. Turkey could too. For nothing.
- who says that the Syrians we put in the safe zone will stay there?
- how long can Turkey stay in Syria? Not forever. One day we will leave Assad could make life a hell for the anti Assad civilians and the people who returned to Syria will flee again rending all our efforts useless.
- Assad won’t grand KRG to Syrian Kurds. Kurds lost the leverage. But what Assad could do is put YPG forces in his army and use the Kurdish card against Turkey again.
- Russia surrounded us and believe Russians don’t have friends. They only have interests. In future geopolitical disasters they have a lot of chips against us.
- Iran spend a lot of money. Didn’t get nothing out of it. Turkey spend a lot of money arming militia and further flaming the civil war (if we didn’t there probably wouldn’t even be a civil war) and at the end what did we get? Assad is there to stay. Something tells me this arab spring was just an invention by the Americans and the Jews so we would waste our money on war instead of building ourselves up.

If I missed any pitfalls you can tell me. Let’s do a brain storm here.

Turkey got into this Syria mess because we were too optimistic and didn’t calculate what could happen. If we didn’t have corrupt and incapable leaders we wouldn’t even have this Syria war, refugees and enemy forces from all over the world on our border. What worries me is that the people who put us into this mess think they can fix the mess.

Erdogan’s advisors are utter clowns. He must get new advisors. The funny thing Kemalists told Erdoğan this would happen on day one and they called us traitors. Now they finally understand it and act like they are saving the day Probably leading us into a new disasters. We must make up with Assad ASAP if we don’t want a geopolitical hell hole. We have been saying this for ages.

 

[Glass]

- Turkey could end up like the US in 2003 with war against Saddam (lots of money spend and at the end of the game no benefits for the US). US wasted a lot of money. Turkey could too. For nothing.

Thats unlikely. We already achieved one of our primary objetcs.

- who says that the Syrians we put in the safe zone will stay there?

They will especially if they are forced out of Turkey. (either going to europe or Syria their choice.)

- how long can Turkey stay in Syria? Not forever. One day we will leave Assad could make life a hell for the anti Assad civilians and the people who returned to Syria will flee again rending all our efforts useless.

They wont be allowed to flee towards Turkey. That is (whether its inhumane or not) but justified to not letting refugees any longer in.

- Assad won’t grand KRG to Syrian Kurds. Kurds lost the leverage. But what Assad could do is put YPG forces in his army and use the Kurdish card against Turkey again.

Assad will probably eliminate the higher ranking kurds who threaten his power and the sheeps are irrelevant (other then PKK cadres and terorits of turkish origin, they should be handed over to us or eliminated by them)

- Russia surrounded us and believe Russians don’t have friends. They only have interests. In future geopolitical disasters they have a lot of chips against us.

They interests for now is having us on their Side and that for the long term.

- Iran spend a lot of money. Didn’t get nothing out of it. Turkey spend a lot of money arming militia and further flaming the civil war (if we didn’t there probably wouldn’t even be a civil war) and at the end what did we get? Assad is there to stay. Something tells me this arab spring was just an invention by the Americans and the Jews so we would waste our money on war instead of building ourselves up.

Dumb move by erdogan and davutoglu which costed Turkey lots of lives and money.

Turkey got into this Syria mess because we were too optimistic and didn’t calculate what could happen. If we didn’t have corrupt and incapable leaders we wouldn’t even have this Syria war, refugees and enemy forces from all over the world on our border. What worries me is that the people who put us into this mess think they can fix the mess.

The mess right now is being fixed altough at a high PR lose for Turkey. At the end however dynamics in the world are changing and what the west thinks is irrelevant.

Erdogan’s advisors are utter clowns. He must get new advisors. The funny thing Kemalists told Erdoğan this would happen on day one and they called us traitors. Now they finally understand it and act like they are saving the day Probably leading us into a new disasters. We must make up with Assad ASAP if we don’t want a geopolitical hell hole. We have been saying this for ages.

We will see how Sochi will turn out.


Another pitfall is


Erdogan could try to copy the KRG model in northern Syria. That would be disastrous for Turkey and surrounding Nations in the mid to long term but the americans are more symphatethic to that.

 

[Taskforce]

Erdogan made his tv channel read a briefing from Ocalan. I don’t think he learnt anything. He keeps making the same mistakes. The only thing he cares about is staying in power.

If YPG didn’t backstab Erdogan during the AKP PKK peace process we would have KRG in Syria too. Only reason we don’t have a KRG in Syria is because they didn’t want to become Erdogan’s milk cow.

These Muslim brotherhood don’t care about anything. Not about geopolitics. Not about security or anything long term. Only thing they care about is staying in power and milking the government to make their crownies rich.

I’m so happy that the Muslim brotherhood project failed. If Erdogan was successful it would have been game over for us Kemalists. I’m looking with great joy how Muslim brotherhood scum are being hung and killed everywhere. May our Muslim brotherhood tugs face the same sooner than later.

 

[Realtalk108]

Turkey got into this Syria mess because we were too optimistic and didn’t calculate what could happen. If we didn’t have corrupt and incapable leaders we wouldn’t even have this Syria war, refugees and enemy forces from all over the world on our border. What worries me is that the people who put us into this mess think they can fix the mess.

Erdogan’s advisors are utter clowns. He must get new advisors. The funny thing Kemalists told Erdoğan this would happen on day one and they called us traitors. Now they finally understand it and act like they are saving the day Probably leading us into a new disasters. We must make up with Assad ASAP if we don’t want a geopolitical hell hole. We have been saying this for ages.

Agreed.

Of all the countries involved in the Syrian civil war, Turkey lost the bet most badly, except, of course, Syria itself.

America is half a planet away. Western Europe and Russia are half a continent away. Iran and GCC are behind buffers (Iraq/Jordan). Turkey is right next door.

Erdogan made a massive gambit opposing Assad and then disastrously lost it. The whole plan went completely awry. And now Turkey has to bear the burden of millions of refugees.

Assad isn't a friend. Russia/Iran may still be manageable. But relations with US is down in the gutter.

Finally, there is no exit strategy. How long before Idlib falls?

 

[Saithan]

I think the US, and EU are going to legitimize SDF through blatantly ignoring facts and truths of their background and terrorists elements. This'll lead to great frustrations and diplomatic notes and such, but I think Turkey needs a card in it's hand for when they proceed with legitimizing, something pretty fucked up. That could either be a supporting assad's return to power, and assad in return stating openly he's cooperating with Turkey, Russia and Iran to stabilize the country, or something completely else.

 

[Taskforce]

I think the US, and EU are going to legitimize SDF through blatantly ignoring facts and truths of their background and terrorists elements. This'll lead to great frustrations and diplomatic notes and such, but I think Turkey needs a card in it's hand for when they proceed with legitimizing, something pretty fucked up. That could either be a supporting assad's return to power, and assad in return stating openly he's cooperating with Turkey, Russia and Iran to stabilize the country, or something completely else.

For that to change Turkey needs a different leader. I don’t think the current leader is capable of making such a sacrifice for his own country.

 

[Saithan]

Well, another option could be a more direct cooperation with Iran on Syria, as long as Assad is fine with it, and supports it, the cooperation of stabilizing Syria with Iran would irk Israel and US alike. We don't really need to talk directly with Assad as long as the ones supporting him are more willing to take an active part in stabilizing the country.

Also the plus side would be that Iran would get very close to Israel through such cooperation.

 

[Bismarck]

For that to change Turkey needs a different leader. I don’t think the current leader is capable of making such a sacrifice for his own country.

Which leader could that be.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Everybody knows the benefits of this peace spring:
- create a wedge between US and YPG
- security: neutralizing enemy positions, logistics and tunnels
- create a buffer zone for refugees (will the buffer zone be big enough though?)
- have bargaining chip at the negotiation table

It is good to sum up the benefits of this new operation to convince the Turkish public and our allies (and so called allies).

But what are the (possible!!!) pitfalls:
- Turkey could end up like the US in 2003 with war against Saddam (lots of money spend and at the end of the game no benefits for the US). US wasted a lot of money. Turkey could too. For nothing.
- who says that the Syrians we put in the safe zone will stay there?
- how long can Turkey stay in Syria? Not forever. One day we will leave Assad could make life a hell for the anti Assad civilians and the people who returned to Syria will flee again rending all our efforts useless.
- Assad won’t grand KRG to Syrian Kurds. Kurds lost the leverage. But what Assad could do is put YPG forces in his army and use the Kurdish card against Turkey again.
- Russia surrounded us and believe Russians don’t have friends. They only have interests. In future geopolitical disasters they have a lot of chips against us.
- Iran spend a lot of money. Didn’t get nothing out of it. Turkey spend a lot of money arming militia and further flaming the civil war (if we didn’t there probably wouldn’t even be a civil war) and at the end what did we get? Assad is there to stay. Something tells me this arab spring was just an invention by the Americans and the Jews so we would waste our money on war instead of building ourselves up.

If I missed any pitfalls you can tell me. Let’s do a brain storm here.

Turkey got into this Syria mess because we were too optimistic and didn’t calculate what could happen. If we didn’t have corrupt and incapable leaders we wouldn’t even have this Syria war, refugees and enemy forces from all over the world on our border. What worries me is that the people who put us into this mess think they can fix the mess.

Erdogan’s advisors are utter clowns. He must get new advisors. The funny thing Kemalists told Erdoğan this would happen on day one and they called us traitors. Now they finally understand it and act like they are saving the day Probably leading us into a new disasters. We must make up with Assad ASAP if we don’t want a geopolitical hell hole. We have been saying this for ages.

Its the preamble of next many actions with Europe and beyond. Britain is already sitting at one side, while watching the show in Europe. Rest of show is totally depends on Germany and France. NATO will as effective as SAARC in South Asia. USA out, and with USA out, Turkey must be out too(no more love affairs).
Europe will attack Syria herself(and may be Turkey too) within few years(may be in next 8 years, as I see it).

Europe kept her patience till now, but seems like big boys wants to eat everything without sharing, so Europe must stand up right now, or else.

 

[Saithan]

There is no sacrifice as I see it, just a reallignment of interests. As it is the west is pretty much ignoring facts about YPG/SDF/PKK and are moving on with legitimizing them, which in return pretty much means that unless we do something drastic the west is going to muscle their agenda through.

Denmarks fear of receiving their own isis citizens have made the parlement pass a bill that allows the administration to kick people out of citizenship, without involving the court.