2 years? They held 4/5 of BiH by early 1995. They only started losing after the Croat-Muslim alliance and NATO started bombarding.
But I agree on the first part about the Baktar Shikan. I've heard from others too that the weapon was very good against Yugoslav armor. I have some videos download as well.
1992 was the start of the war. Early 1994 was Bosnian-Croat alliance 2.0
So thats about 2 years.
Admittedly, by winter 1993 they came very close to total victory, not militarily, but they almost took key territory that we were prepared to divide the country up. We were fighting Bosnian Croats, the Croatian Army, Bosnian Serbs, and many units from Serbia, as well as a Bosniak militia who sided with serbs. Thats 5 armies were fighting against. And gaining ground against the Croats and the Croatian Army. But now it was winter, people didn't have enough food. We were prepared for a divided country to avoid the continuing catastrophe. Meanwhile serbs were advancing on the eastern towns which were surrounded for 2 years.
At that point our president brought in a map that showed his ministers what the division of the country will look like. It was very bad, the ministers organised for him to talk to Turkish president Demirel, where he explained the situation. Demirel said he will call Clinton and they hung up. One of the ministers said that after the phone call he packed his stuff and decided to go home for the day. By the time he got home, maybe an hour later maybe 2, the Serbian offensive on the key points had stopped.
Within a week the peace and alliance negotiations with the croats and started.
Noone knows what Demirel said to Clinton, but I suspect a Turkish red line had been crossed and failing an American intervention I think Turkey was prepared to intervene. In what capacity I don't know, maybe not Cyprus type intervention but certainly peacekeepers and a flow of arms to us.
So I think it's safe to say by early 1994 the serbs figured they were finished. Certainly the soldiers and officers did. The people figured it out maybe 10 years after the war. Some still haven't figured it out.
By early 1994, Serbs had not won a battle for maybe 3 months, and even though they held 75% of Bosnia and 33% of Croatia they had lost most of their airforce, a good deal of their armour, Croatians were well armed, and they could see new uniforms and weapons that the Bosnians had obtained from Iran and elsewhere.
They knew that the Bosnians were manufacturing their own ammo and the artillery stocks were growing. They were no longer facing Bosnians who had 1 Automatic rifle and 5 people unarmed waiting for the rifle holder to die so they could take his place. By early 1994 they were facing Bosnians who each had a rifle, a grenade launcher per platoon, a moderate supply of RPG's, and modest Artillery support. The serbs, after an orgy of war crimes against civilians were certainly not ready to face what even slightly resembled a real army.
we had zero tanks in 1992 and by 1994 we had maybe 30 tanks (taken from Croats and Serbs). And crucially by early 1994 the Croatian- Bosnian alliance was formed and weapons started to flow to us from Croatia. Not heavy weapons, just small arms and ammo. Which was more than enough considering the situation we were in until then.
So yeah, they knew it was going to end really really badly for them, but they lied to their people if course, but the soldiers knew very well. Needless to say, from 1994, it was a constant series of defeats for them, and a retreat. By the end of the war we probably had 150 tanks, unlimited artillery, all taken form them. The serbs had packed up their high command and generals were on the way to Belgrade with the population of their largest city packed and ready to become refugees. Our army was on the outskirts. maybe 15 kilometres away and we were advancing about 5km per day. About as fast as infantry can march with logistics against a retreating army. So they were not routed, but definitely a retreat on major fronts.
Then US threatened to bomb our positions if we did not stop. we signed the Dayton peace agreement forcing them to stay in our country and have autonomy. Dayton saved them from total defeat. If they break the peace treaty, they can expect a very bad outcome. We now manufacture 400 million + bullets per year, make automatic rifles, SMG's, self propelled Artillery (including barrels and all), ammo for artillery, anti tank weapons (RPG's with tandem warheads, not fantastic, but enough), automatic grenade launchers, grenade rounds of all sorts, drone development with Turkey, mortars, and mortar rounds of all sorts (very useful in hilly terrain).
so they know they are beaten. but reality is hard to accept.
