Bol Narratives Interview (April 2017) with ACM Sohail Aman

[Ahmet Pasha]

I was just wondering why paf doesnt consider replacing mirages with f18s???

 

[syed_yusuf]

I was just wondering why paf doesnt consider replacing mirages with f18s???

Seriously ?

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

I was just thinking could the f18 be used to replace mirages.

Why or why not i wanted to hear other peoples opinions!

 

[CriticalThought]

I was just thinking could the f18 be used to replace mirages.

Why or why not i wanted to hear other peoples opinions!

While a theoretical answer may be interesting, the practical reality is that US is completely unreliable. If someone can descend to the low of holding back payment for services rendered, how can we think about trading with them.

I tell you. If anyone tries to do such a thing to India, there would be an uproar. But in Pakistan we as a nation don't seem to have a sense of self-respect.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

I was just thinking could the f18 be used to replace mirages.

Why or why not i wanted to hear other peoples opinions!

Why do you think the F/A-18 would be a good idea?

 

[Avicenna]

It will ultimately boil down to the J-10, Su-30SME and Typhoon T3.

Although the Su-35 is a great platform, I fear its integrated nature (while good) may make it difficult for the PAF to feasibly customize. It would be done, but in the end the PAF won't have that many units (relative to the fighter's expected availability rate). Moreover, because it is a Russian platform, it is unlikely that the PAF will be able to mesh the Su-35s with the F-16s for certain offensive operations, such as deep-strike.

Thus, Eastern options will have to operate on their own and that will necessitate greater numbers. In that respect, cheaper platforms - like the J-10 and Su-30SME - could be sought in numbers instead. In fact, the Su-30SME can be bought from Russia and then routed to China for customization before being sent to the PAF.

On the other hand, while the PAF would not be able to buy more than 2 Typhoon T3 squadrons, it can at least mesh the Typhoon with the F-16s. They can probably operate from the same bases and obviously communicate with one another and the Erieye via Link-16. Some munitions can also be shared, such as the AMRAAM, JDAM and Sniper ATP, while Turkey can serve as a source for SOW (e.g. SOM ALCM, Atmaca AShM, HGK, etc) and AAMs (e.g. Merlin MRAAM and Peregrine HOBS AAM).

There is also the Gripen E/F, probably the cheapest option available, though very close in parameters to the JF-17 Block-III. That said, $130 m for the fighter plus the support package is a good price, it (above the JF-17) gets you 10 hardpoints and supercruise. Is it worth it (over the JF-17 and F-16)? Probably not.

Whatever the choice, I hope its looked at from a political angle as well. For instance, how about some sort of commonality with the Turks. As well as diversification from the Chinese. The Russian option seems overly burdensome in terms of logistics and compatibility. And the American options is not available at this time and may not be the best idea considering that:

The long game is gonna be between the US and China.

Regardless of the political realities, the fact is the PAF needs to make a choice.

Its such a damn shame though, SO MANY F-16's are gonna be potentially available.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Whatever the choice, I hope its looked at from a political angle as well. For instance, how about some sort of commonality with the Turks. As well as diversification from the Chinese. The Russian option seems overly burdensome in terms of logistics and compatibility. And the American options is not available at this time and may not be the best idea considering that:

The long game is gonna be between the US and China.

Funds permitting it'd be ideal to split it between the TFX (medium) and China-Pak Project (light). Any interim fighter should probably reflect the future in some way, e.g. J-10B/C from China or Typhoon T3 from Britain. In the case of the J-10 you expand ties with Chengdu, and with the Typhoon, you begin them with BAE Systems (i.e. which will be designing the TFX).

 

[Avicenna]

I'm not a professional of course in these matters. But common sense tells me to hedge my bets and diversify my sources. To go ALL CHINESE seems to be fooliish. This may be one reason to bite the bullet and buy the Typhoon.

Of course cost.....

Such a dilemma...

Some sort of force structure with additional JF-17, hopefully surplus late model F-16s, and a stop gap J-10C or Typhoon buy?

And concurrently work on the FC-31 and TFX for the 5th gen. Maybe those eventually replace the F-16s?

 

[CriticalThought]

I'm not a professional of course in these matters. But common sense tells me to hedge my bets and diversify my sources. To go ALL CHINESE seems to be fooliish. This may be one reason to bite the bullet and buy the Typhoon.

Of course cost.....

Such a dilemma...

Some sort of force structure with additional JF-17, hopefully surplus late model F-16s, and a stop gap J-10C or Typhoon buy?

And concurrently work on the FC-31 and TFX for the 5th gen. Maybe those eventually replace the F-16s?

Well, Americans use All American, Russians use All Russian, and Chinese use... All Chinese with a bit of Russian. Nothing wrong with it.

Here is how defence procurement is dond right. Identify present and future threats. Determine what tactics you will use to neutralize them effectively. Determine constraints you face. Identify potential solutions and their pros and cons. Pick a solution and start practicing your tactics. Repeat.

Here on PDF we like to jump into a discussion of what to buy, without discussing what we are buying for.

 

[Avicenna]

Well, Americans use All American, Russians use All Russian, and Chinese use... All Chinese with a bit of Russian. Nothing wrong with it.

Here is how defence procurement is dond right. Identify present and future threats. Determine what tactics you will use to neutralize them effectively. Determine constraints you face. Identify potential solutions and their pros and cons. Pick a solution and start practicing your tactics. Repeat.

Here on PDF we like to jump into a discussion of what to buy, without discussing what we are buying for.

Americans use all American because theres no risk of embargo. Same goes for the Russians.
And the Chinese are working hard to get to that level.

If Pakistan can develop high performance fighters and engines all on its own. Well then. Thats the ultimate solution.

To that effect, Kamra Aviation City is in my opinion, THE MOST IMPORTANT component of all of this.

Of course, the fruits of that labor will take alot of time.

In my opinion, PAF is at a critical juncture.

Politically, I see the US starting to be more overtly pro-Indian and even more so overtly anti-Pakistani.

For this reason, Pakistan has to plan for this.

I am beginning to think I give Pakistani leadership more credit than they generally deserve in terms of doing whats best for the PAF.

But I will say this, I really like what I have seen from the ACM Aman.

 

[CriticalThought]

Americans use all American because theres no risk of embargo. Same goes for the Russians.
And the Chinese are working hard to get to that level.

If Pakistan can develop high performance fighters and engines all on its own. Well then. Thats the ultimate solution.

To that effect, Kamra Aviation City is in my opinion, THE MOST IMPORTANT component of all of this.

Of course, the fruits of that labor will take alot of time.

In my opinion, PAF is at a critical juncture.

Politically, I see the US starting to be more overtly pro-Indian and even more so overtly anti-Pakistani.

For this reason, Pakistan has to plan for this.

I am beginning to think I give Pakistani leadership more credit than they generally deserve in terms of doing whats best for the PAF.

But I will say this, I really like what I have seen from the ACM Aman.

If history is a good indicator, then we can safely say American sanctions will automatically mean European/British sanctions as well. These countries act in unison. It's what happened to Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan in the aftermath of nuclear tests. Due to our all-weather friend, the Russian/Chinese block is a safer option. But things are a bit nuanced.

For airframe and engine, ongoing spares need to be procured from the manufacturer (I am assuming we won't be setting up MRO for a stop gap fighter) and are very much sanction prone. I would go with Russian/Chinese options here.

Weapons are a once off purchase, and you should buy the best available to you from anywhere.

Integration of said weapons with radar/EW suit will then need to be solved, and places a constraint on the airframe/engine and weapons choices.

The result of balancing all these conflicting priorities is JF-17 Thunder. It's really is the best we can achieve, and it's the reason why I am saying we should go for more.

 

[MastanKhan]

Americans use all American because theres no risk of embargo. Same goes for the Russians.
And the Chinese are working hard to get to that level.

If Pakistan can develop high performance fighters and engines all on its own. Well then. Thats the ultimate solution.

To that effect, Kamra Aviation City is in my opinion, THE MOST IMPORTANT component of all of this.

Of course, the fruits of that labor will take alot of time.

In my opinion, PAF is at a critical juncture.

Politically, I see the US starting to be more overtly pro-Indian and even more so overtly anti-Pakistani.

For this reason, Pakistan has to plan for this.

I am beginning to think I give Pakistani leadership more credit than they generally deserve in terms of doing whats best for the PAF.

But I will say this, I really like what I have seen from the ACM Aman.

Hi,

Fighters and engines is not the issue---the real issue is a tier 1 EW suite---a total package---.

 

[Avicenna]

Hi,

Fighters and engines is not the issue---the real issue is a tier 1 EW suite---a total package---.

All of the above really.

 

[cabatli_53]

Conceptual design phase of TF-X, twin engine variant called FX-1 is considered to have a max take off weight between 27 to 30 ton. It is the reason TF-X engines will be powerfull enough to fulfill MTOW requirements of TurAF.

F-22: 37t MTOW
F-16 MTOW : 22t
Eurofighter MTOW: 23.5t

 

[Raider 21]

If history is a good indicator, then we can safely say American sanctions will automatically mean European/British sanctions as well. These countries act in unison. It's what happened to Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan in the aftermath of nuclear tests. Due to our all-weather friend, the Russian/Chinese block is a safer option. But things are a bit nuanced.

Happened with the Israelis as well, Americans had halted the second batch of F-16s from being delivered. The French did the same, the Mirage V deal was put on sanctions which led to the Israelis working on the IAI Nesher followed by the IAI Kfir.