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Beijing might begin reclamation in Scarborough Shoal after G20 Summit in Hangzhou

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China builds in Scarborough Shoal, it would come ‘after G20 summit’

Beijing might begin reclamation in the disputed atoll – 230km west of Manila – after leaders gather in Hangzhou next month but before the US presidential election, source says

PUBLISHED : Saturday, 13 August, 2016, SCMP

China will not carry out any reclamation work in the Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea before hosting the G20 summit next month, but it might begin construction before the US presidential election in November, a source familiar with the matter said.

Beijing would also avoid taking any provocative action in the shoal right now given the Philippines had expressed a willingness to explore new ways to resolve their dispute, he said.

Special Philippine envoy Fidel Ramos wrapped up his ice-breaking trip in Hong Kong on Friday, after meeting representatives of China. Ramos, acting on behalf of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, said Manila wanted formal discussions to avoid further tensions over the South China Sea, where several nations have competing claims.

Philippines wants formal talks to ease tensions with China, says ex-president Ramos

“Since the G20 will be held in Hangzhou next month, and regional peace will be the main topic among leaders of the great powers, China will refrain from [acting on the] reclamation plan,” said the source, who requested anonymity.

But Beijing might seize an opportunity to reclaim land at the atoll in the Spratly Islands before the Americans vote for a new president on November 8, he said.

The atoll, about 230km west of Manila, is claimed by Beijing, Manila and Taipei. Chinese coastguard ships took control of the area in 2012 after a tense stand-off with Philippine vessels.

“US President Barack Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office. That might make him busy and he might not have time to take care of regional security issues,” he said.

China has sent more than a dozen security vessels near the shoal in recent weeks, compared with the usual two or three, news site Washington Free Beacon reported, citing US defence officials.

China appears to be sending a flotilla of hundreds of fishing vessels to the shoal in an action similar to what is happening in the East China Sea, according to the Beacon.

Japanese coastguard officials said they had spotted seven Chinese government vessels and more than 200 fishing vessels operating around the waters of the Diaoyus by Wednesday. The islands are controlled by Japan, which calls them the Senkakus.

China’s seasonal moratorium on fishing ended this month, and the nation needed to send warships to the shoal to protect its fishermen, according to Beijing-based military expert Song Zhongping. The security situation in the waters was not safe for Chinese fishing boats after the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague rejected Beijing’s historical claims to the area on July 12, Song said.

“Many Philippine fishermen swarmed into the atoll after the unfair ruling, increasing security uncertainties in the waters, which is why the Chinese military has to increase patrols,” Song said.

Ramos told a press conference in Hong Kong he discussed the issue of fishing rights in the South China Sea with Fu Ying, the chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee of the National People’s Congress.

Ex-interior secretary Rafael Alunan said talks with the Chinese side included the possibility of setting up a “two-track” system that would allow them to cooperate in some areas while separately handling “contentious issues”.

2922e68e-6146-11e6-82a1-e6803dbb30ea_486x.JPG

Fishermen clean their vessel at a dock in Sanya, in China’s Hainan province in May. China this month ended its seasonal ban on fishing in the South China Sea. Photo: Xinhua

Last week, PLA Air Force spokesman Shen Jinke confirmed Beijing had sent H-6K bombers and Su-30 fighter jets to conduct patrols in the region, including the Scarborough Shoal.

The shoal is “one of Beijing’s key strategic positions in the South China Sea ... China will definitely build up maritime security forces on it if other countries, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, start construction projects in the region,” Song said.

Professor Wang Hanling, a maritime expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the Beacon’s report was aimed at sowing discord between Beijing and Manila, and blamed Washington and Tokyo.

“The US and Japan are unhappy to see Ramos’ meeting with senior Chinese diplomat Fu Ying in Hong Kong, worrying Manila is walking too close to Beijing,” Wang said.

The source said it was “ a must for China” to build an outpost in the shoal, which would extend the reach of the air force in the region by at least 1,000km and close a gap in coverage off Luzon, the gateway to the Pacific.

The source added that China should build an airstrip on the shoal and establish an early warning system on Macclesfield Bank, just east of the Paracels. Doing so would allow China “to keep an eye” on the US naval base at Guam.

The Pentagon said last month that it would replace B-52 bombers at the base with the more advanced B-1 bombers, with the deployment slated for last Saturday.

China can already land aircraft at Woody Island, and three additional airstrips are believed to have been built at Mischief, Fiery Cross and Subi reefs in the Spratlys.

Beijing claims most of the South China Sea, through which more than US$5 trillion in annual trade passes. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam all have rival claims.

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Development and progress cannot be stopped. It is now only a matter of timing before China starts a new phase of island genesis in order to ensure regional security and economic development. US opinion on this is of no greater worth than Duterte's comments on Kerry and other US officials.
 
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This is another report, this time from Sputnik news.
It looks like information warfare has started, they leak some news first before the actual reclamation.
Aha, the provocation is the farcical PCA.


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Report: China May Cross Obama’s ‘Red Line,’ Reclaim Scarborough Shoal Next Month
(updated 08:20 15.08.2016)

Tensions continue to mount in the South China Sea and with Beijing increasingly desperate to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the wake of The Hague ruling the possibility for a conflict in one of Asia's most dangerous flash points has never been greater.

The People’s Republic of China may soon look to fundamentally alter the status-quo in the South China Sea by seizing the disputed Scarborough Shoal within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines – a move that Washington considers a "red line" with President Obama warning of "serious consequences" in March if China attempted to reclaim the land.

An article in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post raises the specter of the potential incursion quoting "a source familiar with the matter" detailing that Beijing would not look to reclaim the territory before hosting the G-20 next month, but could begin construction efforts on the land mass sometime between September and when Americans go to the polls in November.

The source suggests that Beijing may look to take advantage of the domestic distractions put on President Obama during the political season. "Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office," said the source. "That might make him busy and he might not have the time to take care of regional security issues."

The potential move is seen by security analysts as a way for China to counteract the recent ruling by The Hague arbitration court and effectively nullify any possible claims to the important body of water. The ruling came after the Philippines submitted for unilateral arbitration, at the behest of the Obama administration, with the court ruling against China’s historic claim to the area citing in large part the Scarborough Shoal.

The South China Sea is home to over 40% of the world’s shipborne trade and also possesses one of the world’s largest oil and natural gas deposits meaning that the economic consequence of fettering away the territory based on the ruling, which China vehemently denounces, would have a substantial negative economic impact on Beijing for years to come.

In April, China announced plans to begin reclamation around the Scarborough Shoal, which is north of the Philippines, despite contesting claims to the territory by Philippines and Taiwan.

"Since the G20 will be held in Hangzhou next month, and regional peace will be the main topic among leaders of the great powers, China will refrain from [acting on the] reclamation plan," the source said as quoted by South China Morning Post newspaper.

The source does believe that the possibility exists that China will avoid reclaiming the Scarborough Shoal in light of the fact that the Philippines have expressed an openness to find ways to resolve the dispute peacefully.

The source also added, that Beijing could start reclaiming land in the disputed Spratly Islands before the US presidential elections in November.

Scarborough Shoal is located 143 miles (230km) from the Philippines coast with overlapping claims over the territory by Manila, Beijing, and Taipei. In 2012, Chinese coastguard ships took control of the area after a tense stand-off with Philippine vessels.
 
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This is another report, this time from Sputnik news.
It looks like information warfare has started, they leak some news first before the actual reclamation.
Aha, the provocation is the farcical PCA.

Yes, after the inconclusive yet provocative court ruling, China has the right to ensure its most vital security interests.

Scarborough development will also give the PH and VN the right message that they cannot anticipate protection from their Uncle; they need to come right up to China (like Ramos did) and talk sincerely.
 
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There is a two pronged strategy being followed here by China.

One is continuation of construction work in order to consolidate the reality on the ground. Otherwise, it will be seen as weakness by troublemakers. And China will look intimidated. This China can never allow to happen.

Second is opening of talks without preconditions with all parties.

Manila has taken a constructive step in this direction by sending their envoy. The envoy is treated with respect by the Chinese government and he will bring back the message to the new PH president. So the circle will complete itself soon.

Vietnam can/must also follow suit.

Constructive dialogue is the only way forward.
 
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There is a two pronged strategy being followed here by China.

One is continuation of construction work in order to consolidate the reality on the ground. Otherwise, it will be seen as weakness by troublemakers. And China will look intimidated. This China can never allow to happen.

Second is opening of talks without preconditions with all parties.

Manila has taken a constructive step in this direction by sending their envoy. The envoy is treated with respect by the Chinese government and he will bring back the message to the new PH president. So the circle will complete itself soon.

Vietnam can/must also follow suit.

Constructive dialogue is the only way forward.

A good sum up of the dialectic progress. On the one hand, incrementally construct- reconstruct ground reality while, on the other, push for China's peaceful regional development discourse.

I guess these two can go simultaneously after it has been made clear that small regional issues are to be resolved regionally and China won't be dictated by the US as an undesired militarist power.
 
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A good sum up of the dialectic progress. On the one hand, incrementally construct- reconstruct ground reality while, on the other, push for China's peaceful regional development discourse.

I guess these two can go simultaneously after it has been made clear that small regional issues are to be resolved regionally and China won't be dictated by the US as an undesired militarist power.

Well said, brother!

If we take a detached view, then this entire mess can be turned into a blessing for the true indpendent Asian order.

It does not matter how long it takes to create a final agreement, what matters is the factual demonstration that imperial institutes can not dictate the affairs of asian lives anymore. This is the key.

This fact alone will fundamentally change the inter-state relationship in the ASEAN landscape.

I would even go as far as saying that if we persue OBOR as framework of diplomatic relationship rather only as infrastructure/economic integeration... as new mechanism emerges.

This is the reason that the opposing forces are so against AIIB, OBOR ect. ect. A new architecture is emerging... too early to say about its success though.
 
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Reclaim it and to give to the Philippines later :partay:, Scarborough is only 150km from Philippines shore.
 
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What PH wait for ?
Let head Scarborough Shoal and keep it.

Be brave, PH would have more islands, reefs and shoals as Vietnam has
 
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