Action at home before that at border ?
The choice on War or No War---unless imposed on us unavoidably---with Myanmar at this moment depends on understanding the mechanics of interests of US-India-Israel axis in this subcontinent by way of analyzing development(s) at the west and east theaters of India.
Even to impose the war on us, requires an alibi of excuse. That angle too requires to be analyzed : Whether that is also being provided / enhanced by the axis of interest mentioned as above or it is truly a bi-partisan genuine issue evolved in a natural way between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
This exercise of understanding will be under full light if following facts are taken in to consideration:
1. India has been given a big task to strip Pakistan of any power, and to become the Captain of this region
2. In repay to this grand position, India has to take a role in Afghanistan, and face China squarely, as and if required
3. India, to carry out above task, requires a dominated back-yard out of Bangladesh, and a quick-transport network to NE 7 states
4. Further, Bangladesh has to be made engaged to any perpetual problem that will take Bangladesh peoples attention away from Indias design in Bangladesh to make and keep it dominated for as long as required.
Myanmar border tension and contested Oil & Gas right in the bay etc. are crops of
#4, and SH and her Bangladesh Govt. is the crop of
#3.
As regards to
#2, in Afghanistan, the Indians completed an electric transmission line from Phul-e-Khumri to Kabul, one of several projects worth $1.6 billion, making India the fifth largest donor to Afghanistan. In addition to the electric transmission line, India has also helped construct the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, which was inaugurated in January, 09. They have also funded a hundred small development projects in rural Afghanistan, designed to provide quick respite to rural populations, and five medical missions that dispense medicines to over 1,000 people a day. (See :
http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakistans-war/36740-taliban-vs-india-whats-taliban-its-not-raw.html)
As regards to
#1, Pak Army has been cornered (by threat of stripping Nuke ability), coaxed (politically & financially) & arranged (thru the large body of Shiite officers in PA) to be engaged heavily (few divisions with full artillery & armor and warplanes) with own Muslim brothers in South Waziristan at the west so that PA may not entangle themselves effectively to appear again at eastern border when it will be deemed necessary afterwards (almost similarly what happened in 1971 in Bangladesh---a classic Poetic Justice case). To make it imperatively happen, TTP has been paid its asking price by the axis for carrying out :
Attack on GHQ, Pak Army
Attack on Police buildings at Lahore [the dynamite found has the same chemical composition as is used by India---its own product---in Afghan Road Project].
Attack on Pakistan Nuclear Site (See URGENT: India Pays Baitullah Mehsud To Attack Pakistan's Nuclear Sites, Plan Deployed | Haqeeqat.Org )
Above instruct us to decide for WAR with Myanmar in our own interest---not for others interest.
We should be at war if and when we are attacked---but should urgently take all preparations and pre-cautions, nevertheless, as if it is inevitable next dawn.
But, concurrently GoB should talk to China urgently :
To ensure Chinas favorable role in case Myanmar attacks
To obtain Chinas support to persuade Myanmar not to contest Bangladeshs due right in the Bay to explore Oil & Gas
We must keep in mind:
This part of Asia containing Nepal, Indias NE 7 sister states, Bangladesh & Myanmar is a sensitive zone to Chinas interest. A weak Pakistan is also against interest of China that may pull China into a war with China when the next phase of actions will unfold in Pakistan---once this Taliban vs Pak Army phase is over .
The long border of India with China is not an appropriate terrain to execute a decisive war---China has bigger & stronger army with infrastructure stretched to the border, though. Here, any fight of might between China and India will be decided by aerial warfare---in which China surpasses India by several fold.
Myanmar will follow the footsteps of China if a war ensues between India and China
The most irritating question in the decision-making process on our retaliatory action to Myanmar is whether current GoB under SH is in position and has the required credentials to perform a series of sincere talks with China as necessary ?
If not, War or No War, in both cases we are at serious handicap & deficiency at home.
We must focus on this front immediately.
Learning layered base conspiracies from ISROs, Indians became such audacious that they even started to apply it against uncle. Indian's motive is clear now and they want BD to be subservient for ever.
Unless sanity prevails in our side, war like scenario might be escalated to a real one. In that case members of handicapped BD-MIL would find out how worse of a nut-job it was led into,
which could pave way the path of Indian to come as a savior.
