Skies
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Hi, I did a deep observation on BD’s economy from a very different perspective. People talk about BD’s GDP and GDP growth rate and think that BD will soon become a country of Middle Income in around next 10 years. But what is the amount of GDP per capita BD needs to become a Middle Income country?? If you look at the picture 01 below (at row 14, Lower Middle income countries), the GDP per capita for Lower Middle Income countries were around 593$, 1411$, 1676$ and 1876$ in the years of 2000, 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively. Here the trend shows, the amount of GDP per capita needs to be a Lower Middle Income country increases year to year. So, BD may have 1876$ GDP per capita in 2021, but not in the class of a Lower Middle Income country even.
Another thing in my observation, I have not considered the GDP volume and GDP growth rate. Because, I think when we look at our GDP growth rate or volume, we do not see the difference of GDP per capita among the countries and it does not show us whether the gap between GDP per capita between two countries is increasing or decreasing. For example, -3.5%, and 3.0%, and 1.7% were the GDP growth rate of USA in 2009, 2010 and 2011 years, where 9.2%, 10.4% and 9.3% were the GDP growth rate of China in 2009, 2010 and 2011 years respectively (GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Table ). Clearly, the performances of China were excellent in term of GDP growth rate, when USA’s were worse due to WOT and recession. But, surprise to notice, the gap between China and USA in terms of GDP per capita (look at the picture below, corresponding row 40, and columns DWCN 2000, DWCN 2009, DWCN 2010 and DWCN 2011 and comments) had been increasing from year to year (around 34132$ in 2000, 41443$ in 2009, 42268$ in 2010 and 42996$ in 2011). So, I want to say, even BD’s GDP growth rate runs at a pace of 10% per year, we may not even reach into the class of Lower Middle Income country in 10 years or more because of inflation, and also the amount needed to be in the Lower Middle Income country class increases year to year.
Moreover, going at a good pace in GDP growth rate for BD does not mean we are doing so good always, because, according to the theory of Competitive Advantage in economic, the some portions of economy shift from country to country. Like, 100 years ago, USA people used to work at garment industry, today that economic activity has shifted to BD due to Competitive Advantage of USA. For that reason, BD’s GDP is growing, but other rich countries are not standing idle. So, even though, our GDP is growing at a good pace, in most of the times, the gap in terms of GDP per capita between BD and rich (also other countries) countries are increasing year to year. So, for BD, the GDP per capita needed to be even in a Lower Middle Income country will be not easy at all, as the GDP per capita needed to be a Middle Income country is increasing year to year comparing the living standards of the Middle Income countries today.
BD’s comparative economy scenario: (open in other tab for enlarged view)
China’s comparative economy scenario:
Observation result:
For BD, only in 13 times, the gap between BD and other countries in terms of GDP per capita had reduced (only 13 times upward red arrows were seen). And these red arrows were found only in the cases of recession in EU, LMI and HIPC, and there are always a increasing gap between BD and rich North American countries and Lower/Middle Income countries in term of GDP per capita. I do not know how BD will be in the class of Middle Income countries with this poor performance (seems rhetorical) where other countries are not standing idle and GDP per capita needed to be a Middle Income country is increasing year to year comparing the living standards of the Middle Income countries today. I think there is much hype about BD’s economy!
For China, 59 times the gap between China and other countries in terms of GDP per capita had reduced (59 times upward red arrows). Good performance by China.
P.S:
1. GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars.
2. Data orgin: http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls
Eorl: BD’s economy; apparent, noticed and unnoticed.
Another thing in my observation, I have not considered the GDP volume and GDP growth rate. Because, I think when we look at our GDP growth rate or volume, we do not see the difference of GDP per capita among the countries and it does not show us whether the gap between GDP per capita between two countries is increasing or decreasing. For example, -3.5%, and 3.0%, and 1.7% were the GDP growth rate of USA in 2009, 2010 and 2011 years, where 9.2%, 10.4% and 9.3% were the GDP growth rate of China in 2009, 2010 and 2011 years respectively (GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Table ). Clearly, the performances of China were excellent in term of GDP growth rate, when USA’s were worse due to WOT and recession. But, surprise to notice, the gap between China and USA in terms of GDP per capita (look at the picture below, corresponding row 40, and columns DWCN 2000, DWCN 2009, DWCN 2010 and DWCN 2011 and comments) had been increasing from year to year (around 34132$ in 2000, 41443$ in 2009, 42268$ in 2010 and 42996$ in 2011). So, I want to say, even BD’s GDP growth rate runs at a pace of 10% per year, we may not even reach into the class of Lower Middle Income country in 10 years or more because of inflation, and also the amount needed to be in the Lower Middle Income country class increases year to year.
Moreover, going at a good pace in GDP growth rate for BD does not mean we are doing so good always, because, according to the theory of Competitive Advantage in economic, the some portions of economy shift from country to country. Like, 100 years ago, USA people used to work at garment industry, today that economic activity has shifted to BD due to Competitive Advantage of USA. For that reason, BD’s GDP is growing, but other rich countries are not standing idle. So, even though, our GDP is growing at a good pace, in most of the times, the gap in terms of GDP per capita between BD and rich (also other countries) countries are increasing year to year. So, for BD, the GDP per capita needed to be even in a Lower Middle Income country will be not easy at all, as the GDP per capita needed to be a Middle Income country is increasing year to year comparing the living standards of the Middle Income countries today.
BD’s comparative economy scenario: (open in other tab for enlarged view)
China’s comparative economy scenario:
Observation result:
For BD, only in 13 times, the gap between BD and other countries in terms of GDP per capita had reduced (only 13 times upward red arrows were seen). And these red arrows were found only in the cases of recession in EU, LMI and HIPC, and there are always a increasing gap between BD and rich North American countries and Lower/Middle Income countries in term of GDP per capita. I do not know how BD will be in the class of Middle Income countries with this poor performance (seems rhetorical) where other countries are not standing idle and GDP per capita needed to be a Middle Income country is increasing year to year comparing the living standards of the Middle Income countries today. I think there is much hype about BD’s economy!
For China, 59 times the gap between China and other countries in terms of GDP per capita had reduced (59 times upward red arrows). Good performance by China.
P.S:
1. GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars.
2. Data orgin: http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD_Indicator_MetaData_en_EXCEL.xls
Eorl: BD’s economy; apparent, noticed and unnoticed.
