Batam: Singapore’s shipping rival less than 30km away

[Mista]

Just look at what the US did to Noriega when he try to block the US from using the panama canal.

Or egypt when their government try to nationalize the suez.

The host country can do jack shit, but this is under the assumption that a canal has already been built.

That's my point, China can only resort to war. Is that necessary? The Suez and the Panama skips a continent. The Kra skips what? The Malay peninsula? To save 2-3 days, if there's any savings in the first place? Other major powers like the US has no influence over Thailand? The Thais will definitely bend towards the Chinese? The US won't back Thailand if China invades?

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

That's my point, China can only resort to war. Is that necessary? The Suez and the Panama skips a continent. The Kra skips what? The Malay peninsula? To save 2-3 days, if there's any savings in the first place? Other major powers like the US has no influence over Thailand? The Thais will definitely bend towards the Chinese? The US won't back Thailand if China invades?

If you look at China 9-line & the string of pearl theory a thai canal in connecting the two seas makes perfect strategic sense to have.

Also probably the canal & the area around it will be leased to china for 99 years if hambatota(cmiiw) can be used as an indication. So if thai decided to reneg on their agreement then china will have clear justification for doing so.

 

[Mista]

If you look at China 9-line & the string of pearl theory a thai canal in connecting the two seas makes perfect strategic sense to have.

It's simplistic to look just at geography without looking at the details. In reality the ships, commercial or military, will require water locks which match its size and queue for them. You don't simply sail across, refer to my posts above.

And then there are competing military powers asserting their influence on and pressuring Thailand. Like I said, can China be sure the Thais will side them?

Also probably the canal & the area around it will be leased to china for 99 years if hambatota(cmiiw) can be used as an indication. So if thai decided to reneg on their agreement then china will have clear justification for doing so.

In the first place why would the Thais build the canal if it's as you claim it makes no economic sense? For China's military interests? So that they can cut their land into two and lease their sovereignty for 99 years?

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

It's simplistic to look just at geography without looking at the details. In reality the ships, commercial or military, will require water locks which match its size and queue for them. You don't simply sail across, refer to my posts above.

And then there are competing military powers asserting their influence on and pressuring Thailand. Like I said, can China be sure the Thais will side them?



In the first place why would the Thais build the canal if it's as you claim it makes no economic sense? For China's military interests? So that they can cut their land into two and lease their sovereignty for 99 years?

Nobody ever said its going to be build. If the failed nicaraguan canal can be used as an indication on the difficulty of building a trans-ocean canal.

we are just working under the assumption that china have already built the canal.

 

[Indos]

What's there to feel sorry? It's business, and our neighbors have been eyeing the shipping pie ever since our independence.

It's not new. You aren't from the region so you might not be familiar, but every few years or so you will read reports of enthusiastic officials talking about building a new hub or port to replace Singapore because they share the same strategic location, land and labor is cheaper and plentiful etc.

This is especially true for our dear neighbor from the North, which already have multiple transshipment ports along the Malacca straits, including one just straight across Singapore.

Yet their combined cargo handled in still lesser than Singapore, and Singapore remains as the busiest transshipment port in the world. Last year I heard they are planning again to build another port in Malacca to 'replace' Singapore. Existing ports aren't enough to 'replace' Singapore I guess.



https://www.seanews.com.tr/singapore-remains-worlds-top-transshipment-port/181356/

You know there are cargoes from India coming to Singapore before heading to the Middle East, despite geographically making no sense?
Location is important but it's not everything. Other important factors include economies of scale, efficiency, maritime law, arbitrage, transparency and lack of corruption. You don't want your containers to suddenly go 'missing' or unaccounted for.



https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nat...s-give-statements-in-rada#cQ3tWIHmwSsBOSdB.99

Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas are quite a successful port I believe. It is number 12 and 18 busiest port in the world while Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta only seat in number 22.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/one-hundred-container-ports-2019

 

[vi-va]

On the original point, if it makes no economic sense then it poses little economic threat to Singapore.

If you're talking about politically, well... Ultimately, the sovereignty belongs to Thailand no matter whose money is used to build it. Can China be sure that the Thais will side China and allow military ships to pass through in times of conflict? Can they be sure the Thais don't side with the US?
It will be a source of leverage for the Thais and China will have to continue giving goodies to them, with no guarantee that the Thais will side them.
If the Thais disallow military ships to pass through during conflict, what can China do to them?

On the other hand, the Straits of Malacca is a free and international passageway. Stopping of any ships is considered an act of war.

China won't dig the canal. Instead spend the money on bomber like B2 and aircraft carrier. Traffic during peace time is ensured. Traffic during war can only be protected by military force no matter it's Malacca or Thai canal.

Only US and India can make trouble in Indian Ocean against China in foreseeable future. Singapore or Indonesia are not on that list. Thai canal has not much military advantage, it's very expensive, Imo not worth it. With that money, China better spent somewhere else.

For long term, if China surpass US economically and militarily. Singapore has no choice but side with China. It's not about Chinese ethic, it's about Singapore national interest. If China replace US as super power, China won't tolerate neighbors side with US. Singapore is in the strategic choke-point, there is no way Singapore can stay neutral if China become super power.

It's simplistic to look just at geography without looking at the details. In reality the ships, commercial or military, will require water locks which match its size and queue for them. You don't simply sail across, refer to my posts above.

And then there are competing military powers asserting their influence on and pressuring Thailand. Like I said, can China be sure the Thais will side them?



In the first place why would the Thais build the canal if it's as you claim it makes no economic sense? For China's military interests? So that they can cut their land into two and lease their sovereignty for 99 years?

Thai canal makes no sense militarily if we consider Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India.

China will try to protect sea route, and only bomber like B2, or DF26, or Navy can do the job. Dig a canal make no sense economically and militarily.

 

[Indos]

This is Tanjung Sauh in BATAM island which is relatively empty and will be used for industrial zone

 

[Indos]

The construction has been started (3 December 2020 )

 

[vi-va]

The construction has been started (3 December 2020 )

What's the reason Batam has not been developed for so many decades? While Singapore is the most developed city country in this region.

Just curious. It doesn't make sense to me, since Singapore got tons of money from the sea port, while Batam has exactly the same location as Singapore.

 

[Indos]

What's the reason Batam has not been developed for so many decades? While Singapore is the most developed city country in this region.

Just curious. It doesn't make sense to me, since Singapore got tons of money from the sea port, while Batam has exactly the same location as Singapore.

Batam is quite developed, but of course is not as developed as Singapore. Main Industry in Indonesia is located in Java.

Batam island.

While Bintan is much bigger but relatively empty, this is why the bridge is important to develop Bintan island

 

[KhanBaba2]

Chinese expertise can help Thailand deal with that issue.

Reeducation camps in Thailand.

 

[Mista]

The construction has been started (3 December 2020 )

Hope to see Singapore and Batam connected by an underground tunnel one day.

 

[Nan Yang]

LOL. I took a trip to Batam over 30 years ago. Went there with my girlfriend just out of curiosity. I was living in Singapore then and there were regular high speed ferries from Singapore. Took just about 45min. I rented cheaply a brand new car to drive around too.

Batam is just a mini Singapore run by Singaporeans for Singaporeans. I had converted some Indonesia currency but everywhere I went they quoted me in Singapore dollars first. Ha ha ha. Singaporean goes there just like they go to Johor Bharu. To unwind, eat cheap seafood.

I saw detach houses build for Singaporeans, reservoirs to bring fresh water for Singapore. Batam is just an extension of Singapore. Even Indonesian needs a permit to live there.

That was over 30 years ago. So maybe things have changed. @Mista maybe you should go spend a weekend there to play Mahjong to unwind. Ha ha ha.

 

[Mista]

It doesn't make sense to me, since Singapore got tons of money from the sea port, while Batam has exactly the same location as Singapore.

That's because it's a myth that Singapore's prosperity today still depends on her sea port, and that Johor/Batam can become equally prosperous just by being a transshipment hub.

Indeed, Singapore started her roots as a trading port 200 years ago, just like many other cities like HK, NYC, and Shanghai. But like other cities as well, Singapore's economy is no longer that reliant on shipping/transshipment.

Actually, no modern economy is solely reliant on shipping/transshipment. Otherwise Egypt with the Suez Canal and with 100mil people should have a much larger economy than Singapore, or SG under the British should've been much better-off if shipping/transshipment is the secret sauce to prosperity.

The transport and storage industry makes up just 7% of our GDP today, and that includes all forms of transport and storage. Eg; Airport, buses, trains, taxis, delivery, logistics, warehousing etc.

The single most important industry in SG is actually manufacturing, making up >20% of our GDP, largest of which is electronics. Our manufacturing value-add do benefit from oil refining though.

We also serve as a regional HQ for many MNCs.

And then there's also the financial industry. Singapore's economy is quite diversified.

 

[Mista]

LOL. I took a trip to Batam over 30 years ago. Went there with my girlfriend just out of curiosity. I was living in Singapore then and there were regular high speed ferries from Singapore. Took just about 45min. I rented cheaply a brand new car to drive around too.

Batam is just a mini Singapore run by Singaporeans for Singaporeans. I had converted some Indonesia currency but everywhere I went they quoted me in Singapore dollars first. Ha ha ha. Singaporean goes there just like they go to Johor Bharu. To unwind, eat cheap seafood.

I saw detach houses build for Singaporeans, reservoirs to bring fresh water for Singapore. Batam is just an extension of Singapore. Even Indonesian needs a permit to live there.

That was over 30 years ago. So maybe things have changed. @Mista maybe you should go spend a weekend there to play Mahjong to unwind. Ha ha ha.

30 years ago I wasn't even born lol.

I went there for a weekend with my family last year. Tbh, Johor is more worth it if you want a cheap getaway for your weekend. Batam malls charges almost the same price as in Singapore, and I find the street food in Johor more palatable. Electronics is also much more expensive and less diverse than in Johor. I remember the screen protectors cost 3x as much as in JB, what a ripoff lol.

Then there's also language barrier. I can't speak the language there, whereas in Malaysia I can easily get by with English/Mandarin.