BANGLADESH: Military must not dominate civil administration

[BanglaBhoot]

EC not above dispute, Khaleda maintains

Bogra, Dec 17 (bdnews24.com) – The Election Commission was not "above dispute", claimed BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia at an election rally in Bogra town on Wednesday.

Urging the EC to work impartially, she said: "There are reservations against their activities. Nevertheless, we are taking part in the polls under this commission in the interests of the country and people."

On alleged "attempts to break up BNP", she said: "BNP could not be disbanded as its grass roots leaders love the party dearly."

She reiterated that Bangladesh had regressed 20 years under the interim government tenure. "During this time, many people were unemployed, could not to business and so progress has been stalled in the country."

She promised to reduce prices of diesel, insecticides and fertilisers to boost agricultural output in the country if BNP came to power.

The BNP chairperson on Wednesday took her election campaign north for two days. She left Dhaka around 10am, with a punishing schedule of 28 public rallies in 13 districts during the trip, to secure votes for candidates of the BNP-led four-party alliance.

At Sherpur in Bogra, in the first rally of the day, the former prime minister had claimed that the Jan 22, 2007 election was cancelled in a "conspiracy".

"BNP would have been re-elected if the election had been held. That's why it was cancelled through a conspiracy," she said.

"During the BNP government there were a lot of developments in Bogra in a number of sectors. The development was possible as we wanted progress of the whole country," the former prime minister said.

"Progress was stalled in the country in the last two years. The politicians and businessmen were sent to jail."

"No development is possible without democracy in the country and election is crucial for that," she said.

"If we go to power, we will boost production and the prices of commodities will come within people's reach," Khaleda said.

Between rallies, Khaleda went to Bogra Ziaur Rahman Medical College Hospital to visit three crewmen of private channel Ekushey Television, injured in a crash earlier in the day as they were following her motorcade on the election tour.

EC not above dispute, Khaleda maintains :: :: bdnews24.com ::

 

[BanglaBhoot]

'BLACKMAILING': A DANGERROUS TREND IN POLITICS

An unstable government likely after polls

M. Shahidul Islam

Bangladesh is famous for drama, disaster and danger. As the clock ticks toward the countdown hours of emergency's end and the people prepare to vote to elect a new government, a whole new dangerous ingredient- blackmailing- has been added to that diverse mix.

The shameless pre-election theatrics of one particular political party - JP (Ershad) - has been spinning the foretaste of what may follow after the election when intense jockeying to form the next government kicks off.

And, after the poll, the politics of blackmail that we have witnessed in previous weeks is likely to intensify to further poison the already volatile ambiance of the present.

As well, like all theatrics, much of what has been going on being fiction, a fiction-based political culture - coupled with outrageous blackmailing - can lead the nation toward a serious political disaster.

The fault of this moral lapse and derailment having rested with leaders who allowed such dangerous practices to foster in order to gain political power through unethical and unacceptable means, it is they who alone shall pay the price too. After all, the price of sin is death, so says the Bible.

Ongoing occurrences also prove our political leaders have learnt little from the lessons of 1/11. Last week, observers at home and abroad were awe-struck when they found no one having the guts to challenge a disgusting melodrama that climaxed with the JP deciding to rejoin the 14 party alliance after the party's presidium member and former prime minister, Kazi Zafar Ahmed, having publicly declared that the "JP will not re-join the 14 party alliance even if the AL decides to give it 101 seats."

Worst still, Kazi Zafar's assurance was reinforced by JP chair person HM Ershad himself, who confidently told the nation that his party had quitted the grand alliance while another JP top notch, Barrister Anisul Islam Mahmud, signalled something more ominous. Mahmud is reported to have said, "JP may not contest the polls at all."

JP's abstention from polls may be of little consequence, but the threat created pains in peoples' stomach. Hours later, expectedly, all those utterances proved to be mere hyperbole, baloney and 'bullshit' as the AL bought back JP's loyalty by sparing for the latter only less than half of (49 seats) what Kazi Zafar euphemistically expected.

In the process, however, the entire 14 party alliance has earned a bad name for being too greedy to grab power at any cost and the blackmailing tactic of a particular party was allowed to yield its dividend.

The consequences this particular episode will unleash are worth noting. On one hand, the despised melodrama reinforced afresh our embedded perception about the JP-like parties and its leaders. On the other, the deceit and the digression vindicated the common apprehension of the people that H.M. Ershad's only aim is to grab power, either alone, or by hitching a ride on someone else.

Above all, the bad precedents so created are pushing political waters to roll toward a pre-designed direction while the ultimate result of this brazen blackmailing is likely to be betrayal and back-stabbing from both sides.

For, make no mistake, If Ershad can become the next President of the country, he will play a very heinous game with other political parties by using his constitutional prerogatives in the most Machiavellian manner. In the meanwhile, he will also demonstrate more theatrics before the voters head for the hustling on December 29 and much more prior to the formation of the next government.

That being a given, and, provided all stakeholders stay on the race, we can say few more things about the ensuing poll and its final outcome with some dithering confidence.

Despite political science having the weakest stitch between the study of science and human behaviour - and the discipline itself being constantly greased by greed and unpredictable gravitation of self seeking demagogues - the outcome of this particular election has become quite predictable due to following reasons.

Firstly, as things now stand, the much touted 14-party grand alliance has lost its credibility by banking too much on 'morally and materially corrupt' Ershad and the skeleton political structure that the JP today is.

Secondly, the alliance has been enfeebled by Col. Wali's LDP being sidetracked by the AL leadership to allow it to spoil BNP votes by contesting separately, and, Dr. B. Choudhury and Dr. Kamal Hossain having cobbled a new Jukto Front (JF) along with Major General (ret'd) Syed Ibrahim, Quader Siddiqui, et al.

Thirdly, with nearly 60 seats compromised for alliance partners, the AL is unlikely to get the 40.11 per cent of the popular votes it had bagged during the 2001 election.

Consequently, the certainty of an AL-led government of the so called secular parties has been shattered to a great extent and the prospect of the Nationalist-Islamist forces' bouncing back into the spotlight from the technical blows they were inflicted since the declaration of emergency rules on January 11, 2007 has brightened.

Hence, in all likelihood, the nation seems headed for what is known in the parliamentary democratic parlance a 'minority government' led by a single party that wins the highest number of seats. That magic number does not necessarily have to be a simple majority of 151, provided smaller parties and the independents join either of the major parties (BNP or AL) and the Speaker of the Parliament is convinced that either of them has the required majority (at least 151 seats) to its side to form a government.

Grapevine whispers indicate the independents will act as the jokers in a post-election melodrama characterized by intense horse-trading, which too could be as unethical and devoid of any ideological aroma as have been the AL-Ershad deals so far.

Based on such ground realities, our commonsensical prediction (shown below in the chart) reveals the BNP might form the next government, the prospect for which has brightened with the weakening of the 14 party alliance and the JP alone snatching away from the AL 49 seats; not even one third of which is likely to be won.

Some observers are fearful of another prospect emerging from the latest moves by JP and its cunning chairman. They think there are malevolent things cooking up behind the scene to make the holding of a free, fair and credible poll impossible, although, as of now, we see no sign of that on the surface.

That is why, and hoping for the best and holding no qualms about whoever can master a simple parliamentary majority to form the next government, we also foresee the likelihood of the AL cobbling a coalition by convincing the smaller parties and majority of the independents, notwithstanding a number of other scenarios blurring the clarity of our vision to see beyond what seems obvious.

Thus, under best of circumstances, the scenario depicted above is indicative of the coming to power of an unstable government, the future of which will depend on the mercy of the loosely-held coalition partners and the prevailing national and international ambiance of the time. The economy aside, the degree of enmity between the secularists and the nationalist-Islamists, and the foreign policy agenda of the new government are the major issues that will pounce upon the vulnerability of the new regime and may cut short its longevity too.

It also seems clear that the nation lacks any specific ideological direction and craves for stable and credible leadership to carry it forward with pragmatic but uncompromising stances on issues of vital national interests. Any coherent and focused move to that direction is likely to be hamstrung by further polarization of forces within and the likely connivance of a particular political camp with the Indo-US strategic vision that has begun to impact national and regional political climate in a more profound manner.

As the ongoing Indo-Pak tension is exacerbating that situation further, the spectre of external influence may awaken voters into a dawn of new realities and give rise to a whole new possibility. With better grasp of the regional and global phenomena, voters might proffer to overcome their prevailing 'perceptual deadlock' by tilting toward a single party that they consider as truly nationalistic and sincerely committed to pursuing independent and sovereign domestic and foreign policies.

HOLIDAY > FRONT PAGE

 

[BanglaBhoot]

GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS IN SOUTH ASIA

External meddling in poll, politics likely?

Sadeq Khan

On December 15, a proclamation revoking the state of emergency and an ordinance repealing the Emergency Powers Ordinance and the Emergency Powers Rules, 2007 were issued. Investigations, trials and appeals pending under EPR 2007 would however continue as if the Rules have not been repealed, but their disposal would take place under normal laws of the land. The National Co-ordination Committee on Corruption and Serious Crimes has also been dissolved, except for its administrative backlog which shall be wrapped up by January 1, 2009.

The army chief said his men were "happy to return to barracks" after completing their assignments. The order for withdrawal of army units called in aid of civil administration was in fact passed on November 3, when the withdrawal process began. But called by the Election Commission, the soldiers are already beginning to come back and take their posts for election duty.

The nomination of poll candidates having been finalised (including a few exceptions who sought and obtained High Court intervention), the hustings have started in full swing. Major parties (and some alliances) have declared their election manifestos and are on the campaign trail.

Sheikh Hasina, leader of the AL-led grand alliance is relaxed in campaigning along with her sister returned from U.K. Her party had better chance to prepare grounds during the prolonged state of emergency. Begum Khaleda Zia, leader of the BNP-led four-party alliance, on the other hand, is out on a feverish drive of cross-country election race. Her party was badly mauled during the state of emergency and remains disrupted in polls-preparedness. Nevertheless, Begum Zia is reported to be drawing large crowds in her campaign trail at all stops and at all times of night and day.

The Economist reports

On the 11th of December, a day after the caretaker government gave the date for withdrawal of the state of emergency on pain of a polls boycott threat by the four-party alliance if the emergency was not lifted, The Economist of London published an assessment of election prospects in Bangladesh.

It said: "Nearly two years after the army stepped in to end the predatory rule of civilian politicians in Bangladesh, the most visible evidence of that corrupt era is strewn along the streets and dirt roads: unused electricity poles lying about in their thousands. The government of the former prime minister, Khaleda Zia, had bought the poles from a syndicate controlled by Mrs Zia's elder son, Tarique Rahman. Yet the electricity generated during her rule from 2001-06 grew by not a single megawatt, even though the economy's size increased by a quarter. Bangladeshis are, like the poles, still waiting for their electricity... The army has failed in its effort to topple the dynastic leaders of the two main parties, Mrs Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina Wajed, another former prime minister. .... Western donors tacitly gave the soldiers two years to fix the mess in Bangladesh's politics and bring the country back to the polls. In return for the interim government not pursuing charges, the parties have agreed to contest the election.

"Sheikh Hasina's control of the League remains absolute, and she appears confident of victory. .... The League's share of the popular vote was around 40% in 2001, when the BNP won in a landslide, with 193 out of 300 seats to the League's 62. This time, 37per cent of voters are considering voting for a different party than in 2001, according to an opinion poll carried out by ACNielsen. The BNP claimed last time to have attracted the vast majority of first-time voters, but little is known about the preferences of 26m new voters this time. In all, nearly a quarter of all voters are undecided. Despite this, the BNP, harder hit by the army's anti-corruption drive, appears not to fancy its chances. ....

"Neither the League, nor probably the army, would accept the result if the BNP won. The generals must fear retribution from Mrs Zia, whom they disobeyed when it became clear that her party was out to rig the January 2007 poll. Supporters of Mr Rahman, he of the unused electricity poles, who left the country for medical treatment following his release from prison with a broken back, want revenge."

That assessment looks outdated, and were probably influenced (like several other points made in that report that are not reproduced here) more by gossip in the international correspondents' hub in New Delhi than by acquaintance with ground realities. But the last-quoted part of that assessment suggesting that the Awami League, and probably the army leadership too, will not submit to a BNP-led alliance's victory in the general election, has raised eye-brows in Bangladesh.

The army chief was categorical, in a BTV interview on 16 December listing army achievements during the emergency, that "Bangladesh Army would neither follow our neighbours nor our predecessors. We won't declare Martial Law."

How else then will the army generals discard the verdict of the general election? Begum Khaleda Zia, sensing possible return to power through polls, has sternly warned that any attempt to sabotage the general election will have grave consequences.

Mumbai terrorism

Meanwhile the fallout of Mumbai terrorist attack in geopolitical terms has taken a bizarre turn. In a BBC interview, President Asif Zardari of Pakistan has flatly denied existence of any tangible evidence linking Pakistan with the Mumbai attack in the knowledge of Pakistan authorities. Even the lone surviving attacker, wounded and in the hands of the Indian police, could or could not be a Pakistani. The press reports were contradictory with regard to his identity, his parentage and his domicile. Pakistan government is investigating those reports, he said.

Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee had said that investigations into the terror attack on Mumbai was ongoing, and relevant evidences would be handed over to Pakistan only after completion of the investigations. President Zardari of Pakistan told his interviewer that no one should jump to conclusions before the completion of Indian investigations (and submission of concrete evidences to Pakistan).

Was he kidnapped?

A newspaper report meanwhile claimed that Ajmal Amir Kasab, the sole surviving member of the terror group that besieged Mumbai, was indeed a Pakistani, but he was kidnapped by Indian RAW agents from Nepal before 2006. A lawyer had filed a habeas corpus case in the Supreme Court of Nepal to get him back, and the Supreme Court had sent notices to the Government of India to find out his whereabouts. The case is still pending in Nepal Supreme Court.

A row also broke out in the Indian parliament over the death of the Anti-Terrorist Squad chief in Mumbai in the line of fire of the attackers. One law-maker claimed that any possible linkage between the police chief's death and the terrorist group's targets should be investigated. The ATS chief was investigating the Hindu fundamentalist bombing case of Malegaon in which a serving Indian army officer has been implicated. Many enlightened Indians feel that the ATS chief was a target of assassination by Hindutwa extremists. Hollywood spy movies have also spread the idea that terrorists have no religion and their moles penetrate the police as well as opponent groups for their own end. The suggestion, however, was shouted down with strong condemnation by the opposition BJP which upholds Hindutwa doctrine.

Another report in the media suggests that US FBI interrogators were allowed to question Kasab (who was not produced in court by the Indian authorities, and a magistrate came to the high security prison to enclose his remand). The US FBI, after thorough questioning concluded that Kasab was indeed a Pakistani, but the terror group that he was involved with had nothing to do with Pakistan Government or the ISI of Pakistan. The banned Laskar-e-Taiba, from its secret hideouts, has been strenuously denying any involvement with the Mumbai attack.

Obsolete reports

The banning of Jamiat-ud-Dawa, said to be a cover organisation for Laskar-e-Taiba (the same person was the founder-head of the two organisations) followed the UNSC anti-terrorist committee's blacklisting of four top persons of that charity, including an Indian financier. Pakistan authorities pointed out, nonetheless, that one of those four men died in 2002 and therefore the reports based on which the UNSC committee acted were obsolete. However, Pakistan did comply and take cognizance of those reports.

A crisis of confidence is thus creeping all around in South Asia in inter-state relations. Here in Bangladesh, the chances of holding the general election without undue external interference and in a free and fair manner may also be affected by that crisis of confidence.

HOLIDAY > FRONT PAGE

 

[BanglaBhoot]

Khaleda alleges media bias

Dhaka, Dec 19 (bdnews24.com) - BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia has alleged the media are not covering the four-party alliance's election campaign fully and fairly.

At a rally in Keraniganj on the outskirts of the capital on Friday, she also repeated claims that "a conspiracy" surrounded the coming general election.

"I've witnessed the mass upsurge during the rallies of BNP and Jamaat," said the former prime minster.

"Seeing the huge crowds, a conspiracy is on to foil the election. And as part of that conspiracy, the media are not covering our rallies across the country," Khaleda claimed.

"A group of journalists are with me, working effortlessly without food and sleep to cover our rallies, but they are not seeing the results of their hard work, as television channels are not broadcasting them properly," Khaleda claimed.

"The state of emergency has been withdrawn, but these [television channels] are still being censored."

The BNP chairperson warned the Election Commission not to engineer or hatch any plots regarding the election results.

"The Election Commission could not prove itself accountable; people are still doubtful about their activities."

If there is any engineering of election results, "no good will come of it", Khaleda said.

The former prime minister urged the government to remain vigilant so that the election is free and fair.

At the rally, Khaleda introduced BNP's Dhaka-3 candidate Gayeshwar Chandra Roy.

Khaleda also promised to make Keraniganj a modern town if the four-party alliance is voted to power.

Gayeshwar, Jamaat-e-Islami assistant secretary general Qader Mollah and other local and central BNP leaders addressed the rally.

Khaleda was scheduled to address at least five election rallies to areas surrounding the capital on Friday evening, having returned from her northern tour, chief of her information cell Maruf Kamal Khan told bdnews24.com.

Khaleda will go electioneering on Saturday in Gazipur, Tangail and Mymensingh districts.

Khaleda returned to Dhaka around midday after completing a hectic two-day election tour of the northern districts. She addressed public meetings through the night on Thursday without retiring. Her last meeting was held at Natore at 6:40am.

After a few hours break at Natore Circuit House, her motorcade left for Dhaka where she rested up before taking her campaign around the outskirts of Dhaka.

She returned again to capital at around 11 in the evening.

Khaleda alleges media bias :: Election 2008 :: bdnews24.com ::

 

[BanglaBhoot]

Military should not overstep its boundaries: ANFREL

Staff Correspondent

The Asian Network for Free Elections, a Bangkok-based international election observer group now in Bangladesh to observe the December 29 polls, on Saturday, said the military should not overstep its boundaries and influence the elections.

‘There is no relationship between the military and democracy. It is the civil administration including the police to take care of the law and order during the election period. The military can only intervene when the situation goes beyond the control of the police,’ said the executive director of the observer group, Somsri Hananuntasuk while replying to newsmen’s queries at a press conference at the BRAC Centre Inn in the capital.

‘Deployment of the troops from Saturday, however, will bolster the security measures to protect all the election stakeholders ranging from the voters to the election officials. But we hope the military will not overstep its boundaries and influence the election process in any way,’ she said.

Divulging its study findings, the executive director said, ‘The preliminary findings showed that there was a lack of awareness among the voters about the voting process.’

Of a total of 500 respondents, only 37 percent of the rural voters and about 39 of the urban voters had observed that there was sufficient voter education, she said and urged the authorities concerned and the political parties to take steps to educate the voters about the voting process by using dummy ballot papers.

Somsri Hananuntasuk said, ‘We hope democracy will be restored in Bangladesh through December 29 elections with the state of emergency ousted meanwhile.’

In response to a question, the mission director of the organisation, Ichal Supriadi said, ‘The organisation gets funds from the British High Commission and other international groups but operates independently.’

On an invitation from the Bangladesh Election Commission, a total of 20 international observers of the network have been deployed across the country, who will also monitor the post-election scenario. Besides, another 50-member delegation, headed by Damaso Magbual, the ANFREL head in Bangladesh mission, will arrive today. They will monitor the immediate pre-election environment, cooling-off period, and the voting and counting processes.

The organisation will present an initial post-election report on December 31 and a detailed report in March 2009.

http://www.newagebd.com/2008/dec/21/nat.html