Bangladesh Budget and its fakery

[Protest_again]

Estimation vs actual. Isn't it always like that? Estimation can be over or under. Can OP post about India or any other country for a comparison?

You can look up yourself. No country including Pakistan over estimates its budget like Bangladesh do. Pakistan does it to some extent but it does it to satisfy IMF.

India actually spends more than its budgeted amount every year. Most proper economies wants their budget estimates to be as close to actuals as possible. Its 101 of budgeting. Bangladesh is trying to fake it till they make it.

It's a bit like their cricket. Over 40 years on the field yet they can't make it.

 

[Falcon26]

No one can beat the Indians when it comes to fake economic data. Their numbers are so absurd, economists have started using their own benchmarks to assess the true ground reality in India. These cheap shots against Bangladesh are a desperate bid to safe face after the per capita income in Bangladesh soared past India.

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Economists and investors are increasingly showing that they have little or no confidence in India’s official economic data – presenting whoever is elected as the next prime minister with an immediate problem.

India's incredulous data: Economists create own benchmarks

Economists and investors are increasingly showing that they have little or no confidence in India's official economic data – presenting whoever is elected as the next prime minister with an immediate problem.

www.reuters.com

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

Estimation vs actual. Isn't it always like that? Estimation can be over or under. Can OP post about India or any other country for a comparison?

Actually many countries including India over spend their budget.
The only estimation comes from the tax collections based on which budget is planned. If the tax collections becomes less, then India borrows to make up for that deficit. A reason why fiscal deficit is quite high in the last 2 years for India.
If this news is true, then BD does not borrow to make up for the shortfall. If the govt don't spend, then the growth rate won't be as high as projected. Growth rates are also determined based on what govt invests in that particular year. Unless the final growth rate calculation is based on actual spending, then it's alright. If not, what learned members like Nilgiris was telling is true. These guys here simply did not have an answer to his questions.

 

[Vapnope]

Actually many countries including India over spend their budget.
The only estimation comes from the tax collections based on which budget is planned. If the tax collections becomes less, then India borrows to make up for that deficit. A reason why fiscal deficit is quite high in the last 2 years for India.
If this news is true, then BD does not borrow to make up for the shortfall. If the govt don't spend, then the growth rate won't be as high as projected. Growth rates are also determined based on what govt invests in that particular year. Unless the final growth rate calculation is based on actual spending, then it's alright. If not, what learned members like Nilgiris was telling is true. These guys here simply did not have an answer to his questions.

The difference between estimation and actual budget can be due to three potential reasons,
1 - Wrong estimation techniques
2 - Tax collection from volatile or uncertain sectors
3 - Deliberate wrong estimations

I think unless we have something concrete, this difference can be because of any three reasons of combination of two or all of three factors. The article doesn't prove which one is that. Also can you share what Nilgiri said? And say my hello to him if you are in contact with him.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

The difference between estimation and actual budget can be due to three potential reasons,
1 - Wrong estimation techniques
2 - Tax collection from volatile or uncertain sectors
3 - Deliberate wrong estimations

I think unless we have something concrete, this difference can be because of any three reasons of combination of two or all of three factors. The article doesn't prove which one is that. Also can you share what Nilgiri said? And say my hello to him if you are in contact with him.

Indian budget vs actual for last 10 years.

 

[Michael Corleone]

These jealous buffoons always doubt Chinese GDP figures back in the 2010s. Now they’ve graduated to Bangladesh. Consider this a major milestone in your nation’s development.

Indeed
Hey as long as China and bd are together in economic development who cares about them

 

[Baby Leone]

i also have some doubts over Bangladesh figures just like Indian figures it seems Hasina had recently took special crash courses from Indians on how to do data fudging.

when economy grows fast it appears on ground, when Pakistan grows fast and was richest in South Asia for decades till 90s and again in 2005s consumption was and still is all time high.

with more per capital income on books as compared to Pakistan still Pakistanis buy more cars in a month then Bangladeshis buys in whole year.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Actually many countries including India over spend their budget.
The only estimation comes from the tax collections based on which budget is planned. If the tax collections becomes less, then India borrows to make up for that deficit. A reason why fiscal deficit is quite high in the last 2 years for India.
If this news is true, then BD does not borrow to make up for the shortfall. If the govt don't spend, then the growth rate won't be as high as projected. Growth rates are also determined based on what govt invests in that particular year. Unless the final growth rate calculation is based on actual spending, then it's alright. If not, what learned members like Nilgiris was telling is true. These guys here simply did not have an answer to his questions.

Here is Pakistan for comparison. It does look like BD just didn't borrow much at all unlike Pakistan and India last year. I'm not really sure how BD budget works. In Pakistan budget apart from development, rest like pensions, salaries, defence etc is fixed cost.

Last year budget

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

Here is Pakistan for comparison. It does look like BD just didn't borrow much at all unlike Pakistan and India last year. I'm not really sure how BD budget works. In Pakistan budget apart from development, rest like pensions, salaries, defence etc is fixed cost.

View attachment 755479

Last year budget

View attachment 755480

Not borrowing isn't an issue. But when a govt projects an growth rate estimate for an year, it's also based on what the govt spends that year. And also when govt shows improvement in healthcare or education, it has to be invested by the govt to show any results. That's the question being asked. If BD has developed (it surely has done impressively) as much projected why consumption hasn't matched the growth rate. If the govt doesn't borrow and as the data shows there is huge shortfall of tax collections, how did the govt invest in hospitals or roads or education.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Not borrowing isn't an issue. But when a govt projects an growth rate estimate for an year, it's also based on what the govt spends that year. And also when govt shows improvement in healthcare or education, it has to be invested by the govt to show any results. That's the question being asked. If BD has developed (it surely has done impressively) as much projected why consumption hasn't matched the growth rate. If the govt doesn't borrow and as the data shows there is huge shortfall of tax collections, how did the govt invest in hospitals or roads or education.

It looks like they overshot tax target by quite a bit. Even for 2020-21 their target was 325k crore taka, but they will end up with around 250k crore taka. Which is $30 billion. So their GDP to tax ratio is like 8% which is lowest in the region.

 

[DalalErMaNodi]

with more per capital income on books as compared to Pakistan still Pakistanis buy more cars in a month then Bangladeshis buys in whole year.

Flawed logic to be honest, Bangladesh is very small and densely populated, having a car is simply not as important to people here..


And the government, by way of taxes, makes it really really had to import cars into Bangladesh...

Maybe @Bilal9 Bhai would know more.



Bangladesh is exporting goods worth 45 Billion USD... Are those numbers cooked too ? Forex Reserves ? You think IMF, WB, ADB and rating firms like Moody's are dumb enough to fall for cooked numbers ?

 

[Bilal9]

Flawed logic to be honest, Bangladesh is very small and densely populated, having a car is simply not as important to people here..


And the get government by way of taxes makes it really really had to import cars into Bangladesh...

Maybe @Bilal9 Bhai would know more.



Bangladesh is exporting goods worth 45 Billion USD... Are those numbers cooked too ? Forex Reserves ? You think IMF, WB, ADB and rating firms like Moody's are dumb enough to fall for cooked numbers ?

Yeah Bangladesh as far as vehicles per capita, is unique in the subcontinent at this time.

A) VAT on private passenger car purchases if new, can range from 300% to 800% (the latter reserved for BMW 7 series, AMGs, Rolls Royces etc.). In spite of this, the number of luxury cars in Bangladesh are sufficiently high. Just visiting Dhaka, one can easily see this.

B) If someone decides to buy a used vehicle (re-conditioned quality 3 year old Japanese market vehicle, typically, which is still better than new cars made in India) then tariff will still be close to 200%. I posted a video of used car dealers here (BARVIDA) complaining that a Toyota Corolla or Allion sold in Dhaka Market will cost Tk. 6 lakh to import and and people have to pay Tk. 11 Lakh for VAT to govt. Car prices have gone out of reach for Middle class people.

So - no one in Pakistan or India pays this amount of VAT and hence their per capita car ownership is a lot higher.

Indians would soil their pants if they had to pay this much in VAT for their car purchases, even for their 800cc micro vehicles.

At-least they have kept the debt situation under control. I haven't seen their budgetary documents, so I don't want to comment. But there are some doubts, like e.g; the auto sales, there is such a lower number of motor vehicles sold. Maybe their one sector(auto) is in a slump but seriously, if people aren't buying cars with their money than what are they buying?

Please see my reply above. You have to visit Dhaka to see why cars are so expensive and why car purchase and ownership is so low. The answer is VAT imposition of 300-800% on new care purchases.

 

[Bilal9]

No one can beat the Indians when it comes to fake economic data. Their numbers are so absurd, economists have started using their own benchmarks to assess the true ground reality in India. These cheap shots against Bangladesh are a desperate bid to safe face after the per capita income in Bangladesh soared past India.

India's incredulous data: Economists create own benchmarks

Economists and investors are increasingly showing that they have little or no confidence in India's official economic data – presenting whoever is elected as the next prime minister with an immediate problem.

www.reuters.com

Thank You. My point exactly.

The fact that there is some level of scrutiny in Bangladesh economic expert circles too.

But if you do that in today's Modi/BJP/RSS India, they will find a way to retaliate and make you pay, either professionally (taking away privileges) or by harassing you with legal encumbrances (fake lawsuits, police harassment, show-cause notices by govt. regulatory departments).

How dare someone question their fake data!!

This was amply demonstrated when they cooked up development and construction numbers and someone asked where is the cement that made this happen? Cement production and consumption numbers did not agree vis-à-vis the glorified development stats.

This is the primary reason that India's numbers are questioned by outsiders often and Indian govt. people have nothing concrete to respond with.

Modi's Bharat must always be Mahaan, even if it take lies to push the idea!

Actually many countries including India over spend their budget.
The only estimation comes from the tax collections based on which budget is planned. If the tax collections becomes less, then India borrows to make up for that deficit. A reason why fiscal deficit is quite high in the last 2 years for India.
If this news is true, then BD does not borrow to make up for the shortfall. If the govt don't spend, then the growth rate won't be as high as projected. Growth rates are also determined based on what govt invests in that particular year. Unless the final growth rate calculation is based on actual spending, then it's alright. If not, what learned members like Nilgiris was telling is true. These guys here simply did not have an answer to his questions.

I will give you an example.

Remember the export incentive India used to provide for assembling and exporting cars?

When this was discontinued some years ago, car assembly activity fell through the roof and hasn't recovered since.

Like this - in India most things and industries are propped up by subsidies and incentive schemes.

We don't have comparable things in Bangladesh. So processes and economic activity in Bangladesh are more sustainable.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

Thank You. My point exactly.

The fact that there is some level of scrutiny in Bangladesh economic expert circles too.

But if you do that in today's Modi/BJP/RSS India, they will find a way to retaliate and make you pay, either professionally (taking away privileges) or by harassing you with legal encumbrances (fake lawsuits, police harassment, show-cause notices by govt. regulatory departments).

How dare someone question their fake data!!

This was amply demonstrated when they cooked up development and construction numbers and someone asked where is the cement that made this happen? Cement production and consumption numbers did not agree vis-à-vis the glorified development stats.

This is the primary reason that India's numbers are questioned by outsiders often and Indian govt. people have nothing concrete to respond with.

Modi's Bharat must always be Mahaan, even if it take lies to push the idea!


I will give you an example.

Remember the export incentive India used to provide for assembling and exporting cars?

When this was discontinued some years ago, car assembly activity fell through the roof and hasn't recovered since.

Like this - in India most things and industries are propped up by subsidies and incentive schemes.

We don't have comparable things in Bangladesh. So processes and economic activity in Bangladesh are more sustainable.

Lol your whole economy is propped up by not giving up under developed status for the fear of losing favourable market access to rich countries. A reason why BD overtook India in textile exports in first half of 2010s is India lost preferential access. BD is begging more time to give up that access to later half of 20's when it should have come out by 2010s later half.

 

[bluesky]

i also have some doubts over Bangladesh figures just like Indian figures it seems Hasina had recently took special crash courses from Indians on how to do data fudging.

when economy grows fast it appears on ground, when Pakistan grows fast and was richest in South Asia for decades till 90s and again in 2005s consumption was and still is all time high.

with more per capital income on books as compared to Pakistan still Pakistanis buy more cars in a month then Bangladeshis buys in whole year.

Bold part: Below is what the internet says about the number of imports of vehicles in Pakistan. Seems not very good. BD imports about 30,000 vehicles although the two figures do not really demonstrate the strength of the economy.

My personal opinion is Pakistan has far better infrastructure than BD.

"The total number of old and used cars imported in Pakistan has drastically decreased to 10,432 during 2019-20 as compared to 46,000 during 2015-16, reflecting a decrease of 77.32% or 35,568 vehicles during the last four fiscal years".