Govt appeasing India by granting transit
Faisal Rahim
The Government's move to grant India transit and corridor facility will bring the country's 'economy and security' under serious threat for no tangible benefits to the nation, except repaying the debt to Delhi by the Awami League-led grand coalition government for bringing it to power.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is planning to visit Delhi shortly, but notably after about one year since takeover of power -- and analysts here say that one of the reasons of delaying the visit is that the Indian government wants to see a substantive progress in the transit issue before welcoming her to the Indian capital.
So Hasina went on a visit to Saudi Arabia after taking over of power, most conspicuously avoiding such a visit to her next-door strategic ally. Bangladesh foreign minister Dr Dipu Moni similarly paid more than a dozen visits to European capitals and the USA before preparing a schedule for a visit to Delhi only in September last.
Sheikh Hasina also went on a visit to Sweden and Qatar last week, in addition to a visit to the USA in September, to attend the UN General Assembly session. But her day for the long anticipated visit to Delhi is yet to come.
Except a few statements by key ministers and policy makers on the 'great benefit' of becoming a transit nation, the Government is tight-lipped on what type of agreement it is working out on the transit issue, in the name of its consent to the Asian Highway routes.
Insiders say, both sides are now working on several agreements, which may come up for signing during the Bangladesh Prime Minister's visit to Delhi. And Sheikh Hasina appears adamant to ignore any domestic opposition that may come on the way to offering transit through Bangladesh to India's northeast.
The nation is now clearly divided on the issue to ultimately bring the battle to the ground.
Analysts apprehend, Bangladesh may be heading towards a terrible time, when India-sponsored saboteurs may come out to blast the issue.
Moreover, Sheikh Hasina is working on yet another agreement with Delhi, a newspaper report said, covering common security issues in line with that of Nepal has in place with Delhi to subvert the domestic opposition to the Indian interest.
In line with this strategy Sheikh Hasina government is now working on different fronts to set the country's institutions and infrastructure supportive of Indian business and strategic interest in Bangladesh.
Some commentators here say, she wants to project her now as a catalyst of change, not only to reshape domestic politics destroying the opposition, but also in the regional context to prove her mettle by building a new South Asia as her father had created Bangladesh. Her visit to Stockholm may be part of such an international image building drive, as she has so many honorary doctorate degrees, which now total more than a dozen, they say.
Padma bridge in India's interest
Only last week, functionaries of a civil society organisation raised question on justification of adding a railway track to the proposed Padma bridge. At a press conference in the city on the PRSP issues, they said the loan that the Government would take for the bridge inclusive of the railway track would ultimately increase the nation's per capita debt to 205 dollars from 149 dollars at present.
Some experts say a direct railway track from Jessore to Dhaka crossing the Padma bridge will give India a shortcut transport corridor for movement of goods and passengers to its northeastern region and Delhi wants so. They say India is not interested in using the existing railway on the Jamuna Bridge as it takes a long time for moving onward to Sylhet and Akhaura through Dhaka.
So the Government is hastily adding a railway track to the Padma bridge, while donor agencies like ADB and World Bank are also putting pressure, though informally, on the Government to support the Indian strategy, if it wants to get loans and also quick delivery of the loans to finish the project before next election. A rail-line on the Padma bridge was never talked about any time before.
Since it is an election pledge, Awami League is serious about its early implementation and ready to take any step in this regard. Speaking about the security aspects of transit, experts say military installations and cantonments at different places on the highways may expose the army secrets leaving the force vulnerable to Indian watch and strategic intervention. The secret behind the BDR carnage at Peelkhana gives a stark reminder that such an incident may occur any time anywhere in this country with vulnerability of defence installations elsewhere.
Local sources at Sylhet told this scribe recently that the Government was already planning to build a new highway from Sylhet eastern bypass to the northeast through crop land to link it with Tamabil highway, about 10 km away from Bateswar, leaving behind the Jalalabad cantonment on the highway. But the question is: who will pay the bill and why should Bangladesh Government spend taxpayers' money or take foreign loans to create the facility for movement of Indian goods and passengers through its heartland?
Cantonments, highways
Not only Jalalabad cantonment in Sylhet, but also cantonments at Jessore, Comilla, Savar and many such army and BDR installations may become vulnerable with their security at stake forcing the Government to build new highways, relocate cantonments or agree to compromise the country security.
The Government is working yet on another front. According to press reports, the government is taking steps to carry out dredging of major rivers to increase their navigability. Only last week the authorities have signed an agreement to buy three dredgers to start intensive dredging of the rivers.
The Government is claiming that the project is aimed at enhancing the depth of rivers to stop erosion of their banks as river erosion leaves thousands of people homeless. But analysts say the real focus of the project lies elsewhere. They say as the Government has already agreed to offer Ashuganj as a port of call to the Indians as part of a transit plan to help move their goods and passengers to Agartola through Akhaura using the railway and road transport system, dredging of rivers has assumed a new significance. The government has, therefore, taken a master plan for dredging the rivers. It points to the river-bank erosion only to justify the plan, which amounts to deceiving the people.
Experts say the Government is not only strengthening the river training and dredging system, it will also use Indian expertise and equipment to keep the water routes navigable at its own cost.
No study on transit's benefit
An ADB study on the regional connectivity said all such loans and public expenditure, required to develop the infrastructures in Bangladesh, would be the Government's liability, be it World Bank or ADB loans or funds from domestic sources.
Moreover, experts say the country's soil structure is not strong enough to support any vehicle carrying a load of more than 10 tonnes and as this region has low-lying areas. Construction cost of roads and bridges is also higher here compared to the global standard and the Bangladesh Government has to bear all such expenses from its own coffer.
There has not been a single study on the benefit of transit so far by the World Bank (WB) or Asian Development Bank or any such other donor, let alone Bangladesh government, to figure out what financial benefits the country would get from allowing the transit.
India is not ready to enter into any such joint study either, and the Awami League government is only putting misleading figures without having any expert report in place. What is the cost-benefit of the transit project? What is the rate of economic returns? All these are yet to be answered at a time, when Sheikh Hasina is eager to sign the deal.
There is another concern that the fish population in major rivers may slowly disappear due to water pollution because of disposal of fuel waste from ships or such other disturbances. But unfortunately there is no such ecological study.
India's tariff barriers
Bangladesh may also be losing its market in India's northeast, experts say, at a time when Delhi is using tariff and non-tariff barriers on Bangladesh to slow down access of Bangladeshi goods to its vast western market. The northeast Indian market, mainly fed by informal trade, will slowly disappear for Bangladeshi exporters, as India will supply low-cost products with opening of the transit route from the mainland.
Since waterways are becoming the most viable transit route for supplying low-cost products, the Government is turning to dredging of the major rivers. But to keep the waterways navigable round the year, the rivers should have adequate and uninterrupted flow of water.
But India is denying such uninterrupted flow. It is not only blocking Bangladesh's due share of water from the river Tista, but also planning to build a dam now at Tipaimukh threatening insufficient flow of water in the Meghna river, which may hinder Indian cargo ships' movement to Ashuganj port and beyond to Karimganj in the Indian state of Assam.
Then how Bangladesh will maintain the major waterways is now a big question, particularly when the water level will fall and even hit the bottom of the rivers. A situation may arise in the process, when, an analyst says, Bangladesh may find it rather easier and less costly to hand over everything, from river training to dredging, to the Indians to maintain the waterways and run their ships.
It may happen that Bangladesh may come under increasing pressure to fulfill its contractual obligation, when the country would be unable with its limited resources and political support to maintain proper navigability of the waterways.
Many political observers here now tend to believe that Sheikh Hasina is wooing Delhi like a protective umbrella on her power base in Dhaka. It becomes clear when she says every time that Delhi has assured that it will do nothing that can cause embarrassment to Hasina's government here.
However, utmost caution should be maintained in steering the statecraft forward.
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