Zarvan
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2011
- Messages
- 54,470
- Reaction score
- 87
- Country
- Location
An Indian army soldier at the scene of an attack by suspected militants in the town of Dina Nagar, Punjab state. The suspects fired at a bus stop and stormed into police barracks in the northern town bordering Pakistan. (PA)
EVENT
Three militants dressed in military uniforms and armed with automatic weapons and grenades attacked the Dina Nagar police station in Gurdaspur, Punjab, on 27 July.
According to the Punjab police, the militants had set improvised explosive devices (IEDs) along the nearby Pathankot-Amritsar railway track before reaching the police station, firing at a bus stop on the way. At least seven people - three civilians and four policemen - were killed during the 11-hour incident, before the attackers were shot dead. From global positioning system (GPS) devices recovered from the attackers, investigators have concluded that they had travelled from the Narowal district of Pakistan's Punjab province. From there, they are suspected to have crossed the India-Pakistan border, before reaching Gurdaspur through Highway 1A. There has been no claim of responsibility, but the tactics used are similar to those employed by Kashmir-based militants and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) in previous attacks, such as in Mumbai in 2008.
A 'fedayeen' attack like this has not been attempted since Mumbai, which lends weight to previous IHS forecasts that the departure of foreign troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014 would trigger an influx of well-trained and experienced militants to Kashmir with the capability to conduct such an attack in India. The decision to attack Punjab is likely to have been influenced by improved security measures in Kashmir and other more high-profile targets in New Delhi and Mumbai, which militants will probably continue to aspire to target.
FORECAST
The attack is the first during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership. He has pledged to be more forceful with Pakistan about its alleged sponsorship of anti-Indian militant groups, and the perception that the militants crossed the international border between the two countries, as opposed to the disputed line of control (LoC) in Kashmir, will result in a heightened state of alert among both border forces in northern Punjab. This increases the risk of skirmishes involving artillery and small-arms fire beyond Kashmir to the established border. That said, the low number of casualties in the Gurdaspur attack means that there will be comparatively little domestic pressure on the Indian government to follow through with threats of a "hot pursuit" raid into Pakistan. Another attack that causes greater damage would, however, raise this pressure and drive the risk of Indian miscalculation.
(382 words)
Attack in Indian Punjab indicates return of Afghan fighters and increasing risk of skirmishes on Pakistani border - IHS Jane's 360