Attack in Indian Punjab indicates return of Afghan fighters and increasing risk of skirmishes on Pak

[Zarvan]

An Indian army soldier at the scene of an attack by suspected militants in the town of Dina Nagar, Punjab state. The suspects fired at a bus stop and stormed into police barracks in the northern town bordering Pakistan. (PA)
EVENT
Three militants dressed in military uniforms and armed with automatic weapons and grenades attacked the Dina Nagar police station in Gurdaspur, Punjab, on 27 July.

According to the Punjab police, the militants had set improvised explosive devices (IEDs) along the nearby Pathankot-Amritsar railway track before reaching the police station, firing at a bus stop on the way. At least seven people - three civilians and four policemen - were killed during the 11-hour incident, before the attackers were shot dead. From global positioning system (GPS) devices recovered from the attackers, investigators have concluded that they had travelled from the Narowal district of Pakistan's Punjab province. From there, they are suspected to have crossed the India-Pakistan border, before reaching Gurdaspur through Highway 1A. There has been no claim of responsibility, but the tactics used are similar to those employed by Kashmir-based militants and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) in previous attacks, such as in Mumbai in 2008.

A 'fedayeen' attack like this has not been attempted since Mumbai, which lends weight to previous IHS forecasts that the departure of foreign troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014 would trigger an influx of well-trained and experienced militants to Kashmir with the capability to conduct such an attack in India. The decision to attack Punjab is likely to have been influenced by improved security measures in Kashmir and other more high-profile targets in New Delhi and Mumbai, which militants will probably continue to aspire to target.

FORECAST
The attack is the first during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership. He has pledged to be more forceful with Pakistan about its alleged sponsorship of anti-Indian militant groups, and the perception that the militants crossed the international border between the two countries, as opposed to the disputed line of control (LoC) in Kashmir, will result in a heightened state of alert among both border forces in northern Punjab. This increases the risk of skirmishes involving artillery and small-arms fire beyond Kashmir to the established border. That said, the low number of casualties in the Gurdaspur attack means that there will be comparatively little domestic pressure on the Indian government to follow through with threats of a "hot pursuit" raid into Pakistan. Another attack that causes greater damage would, however, raise this pressure and drive the risk of Indian miscalculation.




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Attack in Indian Punjab indicates return of Afghan fighters and increasing risk of skirmishes on Pakistani border - IHS Jane's 360

 

[That Guy]

It's still not even clear who's carried out the attack, and the Indian government is still investigating if the militants are even foreign. This is nonsense, I expected better from Janes. Spreading needless rumors and fear mongering, and connecting invisible dots, this is disappointing.

 

[[Bregs]]

The more janes will raise the temperature by such news the more weapons US n west will be able to sell us. what else could be the motive when official investigation is not complete as yet

 

[anyrandom]

The more janes will raise the temperature by such news the more weapons US n west will be able to sell us. what else could be the motive when official investigation is not complete as yet

Now don't try to please the forum overlords by trying to be so "objective". Countless examples in the past have made it clear who was "behind" this attack. None other than our friendly neighbor. One has to be daft to not see it.

 

[The_Sidewinder]

It's still not even clear who's carried out the attack, and the Indian government is still investigating if the militants are even foreign. This is nonsense, I expected better from Janes. Spreading needless rumors and fear mongering, and connecting invisible dots, this is disappointing.

Janes seems published the news based on the report that GPS carried out by those terrorist show they came from Shakargarh, Pakistan. Its too early to predict anything though.

 

[Thorough Pro]

Probably the Taliban terrorists that indian government didn't pay after the job was done in Pakistan.

 

[Indika]

Janes seems published the news based on the report that GPS carried out by those terrorist show they came from Shakargarh, Pakistan. Its too early to predict anything though.

You are wrong, hard evidence does not count in politics. They dropped out from jannat and went back to jannat . Simple and straight forward you got it, any other interpretation using evidence is wrong.

 

[The_Sidewinder]

You are wrong, hard evidence does not count in politics. They dropped out from jannat and went back to jannat . Simple and straight forward you got it, any other interpretation using evidence is wrong.

Fair enough.

Probably the Taliban terrorists that indian government didn't pay after the job was done in Pakistan.

Maybe they were seeking a pay hike.

 

[saadee]

CCTV camera is showing three men running where? Nobody knows. The face of the camera is towards Indian border because if that camera is facing towards Pakistani border then those men should be going towards Pakistani border. Lets assume that if those men entered Indian border and CCTV cameras made their video then what BSF was doing? Then they planted 10 bombs on the railway track and then they attacked on the Police station? How did they get enough time to do all of it after they were shot by the CCTV camera? You can't see no faces, not even the border and specifically the footages of their arrival.

CCTV camera is showing three men running where? Nobody knows. The face of the camera is towards Indian border because if that camera is facing towards Pakistani border then those men should be going towards Pakistani border. Lets assume that if those men entered Indian border and CCTV cameras made their video then what BSF was doing? Then they planted 10 bombs on the railway track and then they attacked on the Police station? How did they get enough time to do all of it after they were spotted on the CCTV camera? You can't see no faces, not even the border and specifically the footages of their arrival.

 

[Indika]

It's still not even clear who's carried out the attack, and the Indian government is still investigating if the militants are even foreign. This is nonsense, I expected better from Janes. Spreading needless rumors and fear mongering, and connecting invisible dots, this is disappointing.

Janaab, its not only india but whole world who think terrorists must be from pakistan or pakistani origin. You might get turned of and diss at others but thats a fact. Afghanistan,india,iran even your own higher than mountains alias china do the same. America inquires in a polite secret manner but lesser nuclear or non nuclear powers give verbal diatribe.
In short your reputation precedes you. (no ranting and raving about others ok, pakistan is the usual suspect. )

 

[A.M.]

A pretty terrible false flag operation by the Indians.

They can do a lot better than this.

 

[Hellfire]

@Zarvan : Thanks for a well researched document. It is my individual assessment too. Leaving aside the usual Indian and Pakistani jingoism, the probability of this type of attack occurring as an aftermath of the two PMs to try and re-start the stalled peace process was a foregone conclusion. The Indian position will be the same, to try and bear pressure on a lame duck civil Pakistani government to try and control those elements who may/may not have given an official assistance to this trio. That they originated from Shakargarh region has been established by the GPS way points as fed collated with SIGINT forensic analysis. But the muted response from India so far is due to the understanding that this may be to further derail and weaken the initiatives and baby steps towards peace. I totally agree with the IHS Jane's analysis and this is what Indian security forces also expect is likely to happen. We, that is many sane members on this forum, have often analysed this as a potential problem in forums wherein we had been discussing the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.

It's still not even clear who's carried out the attack, and the Indian government is still investigating if the militants are even foreign. This is nonsense, I expected better from Janes. Spreading needless rumors and fear mongering, and connecting invisible dots, this is disappointing.

It is an analysis which I along with other bipartisan forum members have oft projected in forums as a side effect of drawdown of NATO and US forces from Afghanistan long back. The aim of the attack may be just to ensure that the NSA level meet Is cancelled and further attempts at peace with a GoI which is in position to negotiate a peaceful settlement with Pakistan which no one in India will oppose as sell out (due to their hardline Hindu image) is scuttled.

 

[noksss]

@Zarvan is your afghani jihad friends very poorly trained ? Bcoz the whole operation is done by Punjab police which even lack the basic bullet proof jacket and helmet

 

[MilSpec]

It's still not even clear who's carried out the attack, and the Indian government is still investigating if the militants are even foreign. This is nonsense, I expected better from Janes. Spreading needless rumors and fear mongering, and connecting invisible dots, this is disappointing.

I wonder if you would give such benefit of doubt to India, if such an article was published by Jane's incriminating India in any acts in Pakistan.

 

[[Bregs]]

Now don't try to please the forum overlords by trying to be so "objective". Countless examples in the past have made it clear who was "behind" this attack. None other than our friendly neighbor. One has to be daft to not see it.

i am just saying let the formal official statement be issued by MEA, specifically my reply was for jane's article as they have been found to be leaking news on defense items buy from India too to favor some lobbies of western powers pinning down Russia by creating confusion and in future do not try to advise me or judge me what i need to post here and what not to ?