The FSA is perhaps the smallest rebel faction and survives on Western largesse.
Assad is winning get over it Haters
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sharjeel_1992
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come on dear,,,it is al-saud owned newspaper and the guy writing it is general manager of it, so directly the employee of al-saud,,,,,,, what else can you expect from him,,,,nobody wants to be unemployed,,,,,
tthen why doesnt ahmed jarba returns to syria?????????
Arabian Legend
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He comes and goes frequently.
In Dara'a
Recently in Latakia where is Assad is hiding.
Yzd Khalifa
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Al-Arabyia isn't a state owned company. It belongs to MBC Group which is a private company.
Same goes with the London-based ME news.
Same goes with the London-based ME news.
sharjeel_1992
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why not permanently stay (just like president mr, bashar al assad),,,,after all he controls, according to u, half of syria,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,He comes and goes frequently.
In Dara'a
Recently in Latakia where is Assad is hiding.
but yaar, the group itself is owned by al-saud,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Yzd Khalifa
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It isn't owned by the state or anyone belonging to the Royal Family - if that's what your suggesting.
Arabian Legend
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You can ask him why yourself, He is on twitter. Al-Jarba is political figure, he flays here and there constantly and have participated in all international gatherings that are related to Syria so far. He is also occupying Syria seat in the Arab league. He is the legitimate leader now whether you like it or not.
Assad is camping on Tartus naval base that is under Russia protection, ready to evacuate anytime.
Nope, MBC group belongs to Waleed Al Ibrahim. Al-Saud have got nothing to do with it.
illusion8
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Bashar al-Assad and his leadership are there to stay. It did not really need one of his closest allies and saviours, the Lebanese Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, to say it.
It is now the working assumption of most observers and analysts, Western diplomats who have toiled to dislodge him, and even some of the more realistic elements among the Syrian opposition.
The reason is simple.
Unless some of the elements in the equation change radically - and there is no sign of that happening in the near future - there is no foreseeable set of circumstances that would exert sufficient pressure on Mr Assad to stand down, or the regime to negotiate its own demise.
Equally, military victory by the fractious and feuding rebel groups is now a distant dream. Some of their regional backers may still want it, but the Western powers which pull many of the strings behind the scenes never did anyway.
A negotiated settlement is just as remote.
The Geneva talks, which began in January and nosedived in February, are dead in the water.
Geo-political tensions
In the current configuration, the only feasible settlement would require the opposition and their backers to accept that Bashar al-Assad and his power circle remain in place with some cosmetic reforms, something the rebels cannot do without negating their own raison d'etre.
Anything else would require strong external pressures on the regime to make serious concessions, less likely now than ever because of the breakdown in entente between Washington and Moscow over Ukraine.
That crisis has given the Russian President Vladimir Putin strong motivation to assert himself against the Americans over Syria rather than go along with them.
The pressures on Mr Assad are now so light that he is preparing to have himself re-elected for another full seven-year term, rather than opting for a compromise two-year extension, an idea kicked around a few months ago when diplomacy was active.
At the weekend, he said the crisis was turning around, because of advances scored by the army as well as "national reconciliations", a reference to the local truces which have partly pacified some of the Damascus suburbs after rebel-held areas had been blockaded to choking point.
But none of this means that outright military victory is within sight for the government either.
War of attrition
The most likely prognosis, as Hassan Nasrallah said, is for a prolonged war of attrition if the rebels refuse to come to terms with the government, as is likely.
For the moment, the conflict has settled into a kind of unstable stalemate, with the balance tilted somewhat in the regime's favour thanks to its unchecked use of its air power, a generous flow of military supplies from Russia, and much help from Iran and allied Shia fighters from Lebanon and Iraq.
President Assad himself, according to a visiting Russian official, predicted that "the active phase of military action" would be finished this year, and that it would then be a question of "fighting terrorists and suicide bombers".
That may be tinged with wishful thinking. But the government has been steadily consolidating its control around Damascus and core areas in western and central Syria, despite rebel penetrations in the far north, control in the east, and much fighting in the south.
"If present trends continue - and there really is little to suggest they will not - then the regime will be in a dominant position and in effective control of a critical mass of the country by the end of 2015, if not sooner," wrote analyst Yezid Sayigh of the Carnegie Endowment.
So it may not be fanciful to imagine a future where resistance to President Assad is reduced to outlying areas such as the far-flung eastern marches where the extreme militants of ISIS - the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (also known as ISIL) - have been consolidating their presence, which straddles the Iraqi border.
It is a pattern already set by Iraq, with ISIS, Sunni disaffection and Iranian support for the central government, as common factors.
Fractured opposition
It is a startling turnaround. Many observers - including this one - who barely 16 months ago believed the collapse of the regime under rebel pressure was imminent, have had to eat their words.
Will we be doing the same again 16 months from now?
It seems unlikely, on current form.
President Assad's backers - principally Russia and Iran and its allies - proved far more solid, consistent and forthcoming than the motley crew of Western and regional powers supporting the opposition and the rebels on the ground. That will not change.
The regime itself and its armed forces remained solid and cohesive, in contrast to the endemic bickering afflicting the never very credible opposition leadership in exile and the chaotic free-for-all prevailing among a myriad of rival rebel groups on the ground, with Islamic radicals increasingly to the fore.
Theoretically that could all be turned around, but it would take a radical reversal of everything that has happened over the past three years.
The opposition political leadership would have to unite and become credibly representative of the real forces inside the country. A centralised and authoritative military structure would have to be established, unifying, commanding and supplying rebel forces on the ground.
Radical groups linked to al-Qaeda would have to be isolated and suppressed. The Western powers, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other opposition supporters would all have to be pursuing the same coherent agenda, not just their own.
At the moment, that prescription looks like pie in the sky.
Western reticence
But in the absence of those conditions, it is hard to imagine the Americans and others giving the green light for a serious infusion of the kind of quality weapons - such as MANPAD anti-aircraft missiles and much more - that the rebels need if they are to stand a chance of tilting the balance back in their favour.
For now, there is no sign of such unity of purpose. Increasingly, the Western powers seem to view the Syrian crisis through the optic of counter-terrorism, haunted by the fear that quality weapons will fall into the hands of militant jihadists, and that hundreds of trained, battle-hardened and indoctrinated Islamist radicals from their own nations will head home with evil purpose.
It is not just a question of ISIS, which has alienated other rebel groups by its extreme behaviour and is seen by many as manipulated by the regime, but also factions such as the official al-Qaeda franchise, the Nusra Front, which is much more deeply embedded in the core of rebel activity, where many Islamist groups predominate.
So the best bet is that the Americans and their allies will continue to ration cannily their support to the armed rebels, giving them enough to keep afloat and prevent a collapse, but not to turn the tide decisively against the regime.
The rebels' fate is perilously hostage to the vacillations of Western policies and the vagaries of regional politics, such as the current row between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Their position could be severely undercut in the event of, for example, a rapprochement between Iran and the Saudis, which is being explored.
Price to pay
All of this does not mean that President Assad is there to stay forever.
He may be confident that the worst of the storm has passed. But it is not yet over, and the damage it has wrought will transform the country. The clock cannot be turned back.
Once the heat is off, there may be a reckoning from elements currently loyal to the leadership who have paid a high price for its brutal blunders.
There has also been a fragmentation and devolution of power on the ground in loyalist areas, which may make it hard for Damascus to reassert itself in the old manner.
Provided the overall strategic balance remains undisturbed, the key outside allies that have sustained the regime, notably Russia and Iran, may also - as they have often said - prove not to be wedded to the person of Bashar al-Assad once the pressure is off.
"We aren't seeking to have Bashar al-Assad remain president for life," Iran's deputy Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian said recently.
"But we do not subscribe to the idea of using extremist forces and terrorism to topple Assad and the Syrian government."
But all that may lie in the future. For the moment, Mr Assad and his entourage may be excused for feeling that they can breathe easy.
BBC News - Analysis: Why Assad can have confidence in his survival
Thank you Syria for ridding the world of a large amount of scum from the face of the earth - if anything India should be thankful too and send support, armaments and funds to the Syrian regime for its sterling job. @Syrian Lion
It is now the working assumption of most observers and analysts, Western diplomats who have toiled to dislodge him, and even some of the more realistic elements among the Syrian opposition.
The reason is simple.
Unless some of the elements in the equation change radically - and there is no sign of that happening in the near future - there is no foreseeable set of circumstances that would exert sufficient pressure on Mr Assad to stand down, or the regime to negotiate its own demise.
Equally, military victory by the fractious and feuding rebel groups is now a distant dream. Some of their regional backers may still want it, but the Western powers which pull many of the strings behind the scenes never did anyway.
A negotiated settlement is just as remote.
The Geneva talks, which began in January and nosedived in February, are dead in the water.
Geo-political tensions
In the current configuration, the only feasible settlement would require the opposition and their backers to accept that Bashar al-Assad and his power circle remain in place with some cosmetic reforms, something the rebels cannot do without negating their own raison d'etre.
Anything else would require strong external pressures on the regime to make serious concessions, less likely now than ever because of the breakdown in entente between Washington and Moscow over Ukraine.
That crisis has given the Russian President Vladimir Putin strong motivation to assert himself against the Americans over Syria rather than go along with them.
The pressures on Mr Assad are now so light that he is preparing to have himself re-elected for another full seven-year term, rather than opting for a compromise two-year extension, an idea kicked around a few months ago when diplomacy was active.
At the weekend, he said the crisis was turning around, because of advances scored by the army as well as "national reconciliations", a reference to the local truces which have partly pacified some of the Damascus suburbs after rebel-held areas had been blockaded to choking point.
But none of this means that outright military victory is within sight for the government either.
War of attrition
The most likely prognosis, as Hassan Nasrallah said, is for a prolonged war of attrition if the rebels refuse to come to terms with the government, as is likely.
For the moment, the conflict has settled into a kind of unstable stalemate, with the balance tilted somewhat in the regime's favour thanks to its unchecked use of its air power, a generous flow of military supplies from Russia, and much help from Iran and allied Shia fighters from Lebanon and Iraq.
President Assad himself, according to a visiting Russian official, predicted that "the active phase of military action" would be finished this year, and that it would then be a question of "fighting terrorists and suicide bombers".
That may be tinged with wishful thinking. But the government has been steadily consolidating its control around Damascus and core areas in western and central Syria, despite rebel penetrations in the far north, control in the east, and much fighting in the south.
"If present trends continue - and there really is little to suggest they will not - then the regime will be in a dominant position and in effective control of a critical mass of the country by the end of 2015, if not sooner," wrote analyst Yezid Sayigh of the Carnegie Endowment.
So it may not be fanciful to imagine a future where resistance to President Assad is reduced to outlying areas such as the far-flung eastern marches where the extreme militants of ISIS - the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (also known as ISIL) - have been consolidating their presence, which straddles the Iraqi border.
It is a pattern already set by Iraq, with ISIS, Sunni disaffection and Iranian support for the central government, as common factors.
Fractured opposition
It is a startling turnaround. Many observers - including this one - who barely 16 months ago believed the collapse of the regime under rebel pressure was imminent, have had to eat their words.
Will we be doing the same again 16 months from now?
It seems unlikely, on current form.
President Assad's backers - principally Russia and Iran and its allies - proved far more solid, consistent and forthcoming than the motley crew of Western and regional powers supporting the opposition and the rebels on the ground. That will not change.
The regime itself and its armed forces remained solid and cohesive, in contrast to the endemic bickering afflicting the never very credible opposition leadership in exile and the chaotic free-for-all prevailing among a myriad of rival rebel groups on the ground, with Islamic radicals increasingly to the fore.
Theoretically that could all be turned around, but it would take a radical reversal of everything that has happened over the past three years.
The opposition political leadership would have to unite and become credibly representative of the real forces inside the country. A centralised and authoritative military structure would have to be established, unifying, commanding and supplying rebel forces on the ground.
Radical groups linked to al-Qaeda would have to be isolated and suppressed. The Western powers, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other opposition supporters would all have to be pursuing the same coherent agenda, not just their own.
At the moment, that prescription looks like pie in the sky.
Western reticence
But in the absence of those conditions, it is hard to imagine the Americans and others giving the green light for a serious infusion of the kind of quality weapons - such as MANPAD anti-aircraft missiles and much more - that the rebels need if they are to stand a chance of tilting the balance back in their favour.
For now, there is no sign of such unity of purpose. Increasingly, the Western powers seem to view the Syrian crisis through the optic of counter-terrorism, haunted by the fear that quality weapons will fall into the hands of militant jihadists, and that hundreds of trained, battle-hardened and indoctrinated Islamist radicals from their own nations will head home with evil purpose.
It is not just a question of ISIS, which has alienated other rebel groups by its extreme behaviour and is seen by many as manipulated by the regime, but also factions such as the official al-Qaeda franchise, the Nusra Front, which is much more deeply embedded in the core of rebel activity, where many Islamist groups predominate.
So the best bet is that the Americans and their allies will continue to ration cannily their support to the armed rebels, giving them enough to keep afloat and prevent a collapse, but not to turn the tide decisively against the regime.
The rebels' fate is perilously hostage to the vacillations of Western policies and the vagaries of regional politics, such as the current row between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Their position could be severely undercut in the event of, for example, a rapprochement between Iran and the Saudis, which is being explored.
Price to pay
All of this does not mean that President Assad is there to stay forever.
He may be confident that the worst of the storm has passed. But it is not yet over, and the damage it has wrought will transform the country. The clock cannot be turned back.
Once the heat is off, there may be a reckoning from elements currently loyal to the leadership who have paid a high price for its brutal blunders.
There has also been a fragmentation and devolution of power on the ground in loyalist areas, which may make it hard for Damascus to reassert itself in the old manner.
Provided the overall strategic balance remains undisturbed, the key outside allies that have sustained the regime, notably Russia and Iran, may also - as they have often said - prove not to be wedded to the person of Bashar al-Assad once the pressure is off.
"We aren't seeking to have Bashar al-Assad remain president for life," Iran's deputy Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian said recently.
"But we do not subscribe to the idea of using extremist forces and terrorism to topple Assad and the Syrian government."
But all that may lie in the future. For the moment, Mr Assad and his entourage may be excused for feeling that they can breathe easy.
BBC News - Analysis: Why Assad can have confidence in his survival
Thank you Syria for ridding the world of a large amount of scum from the face of the earth - if anything India should be thankful too and send support, armaments and funds to the Syrian regime for its sterling job. @Syrian Lion
Last edited:
500
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Until spring 2013 Assad was rapidly losing ground. Then he managed to stop.
There are several factors why it happened:
1) Assad does not have enough troops to control the entire country. But when his territory shrank the defence for him became much easier.
2) First Assad was somewhat reluctant to make massive war crimes. But then he realized that no one gives a damn. Assad began to use massive barrel bombings, heavy "Vulcano" rockets, starving blockade, ethnic cleansing. He even used chemical weapons once, but then world finally reacted.
3) Hezbollah and Iraqis Shias arrived to help him.
4) Russia and Iran increased help to Assad sending regular supplies.
5) ISIS attacked rebels and Kurds.
So here are Assad's achievements in 1 year:
1) He stopped losing ground in massive way.
2) With help of Hezbollah and heavy bombings managed to cleanse some encircled rebel enclaves in Homs and Qalamoun.
3) In Damascus using starvation and barrel bombs he forced several rebel areas to sign truce. But this truce is not surrender and it can also act in both ways, because rebels from other areas can get supplies now from "truce" areas.
Does it mean that Assad is winning? - Nope.
1) North-East of the country, where are located virtually all Syria's resources dont show any improvement. Rather on contrary.
2) The situation in south of the country became considerably worth for Assad.
Rebel brigades became much more mature in this year. They started production of own artillery (hell cannons and mortars). They received some ATGMs.
Whats going to happen next?
If the situation is not changing (Assad receives massive aid from Russia and Iran, Hezbollah, rebel receive ATGMs) then the situation will not change much either. Assad may finish two remaining enclaves in Homs (Homs old city and the triangle Talbise-Rastan-Houla). If rebels receive more supplies (lots of ATGM, mortars, some MANPADS) then Assad will begin losing ground again.
------------------------------------
Anyway, Assads economy is destroyed for good, he cant survive anymore without billions of annual aid from Russia and Iran. Basically only prolonging his agony.
There are several factors why it happened:
1) Assad does not have enough troops to control the entire country. But when his territory shrank the defence for him became much easier.
2) First Assad was somewhat reluctant to make massive war crimes. But then he realized that no one gives a damn. Assad began to use massive barrel bombings, heavy "Vulcano" rockets, starving blockade, ethnic cleansing. He even used chemical weapons once, but then world finally reacted.
3) Hezbollah and Iraqis Shias arrived to help him.
4) Russia and Iran increased help to Assad sending regular supplies.
5) ISIS attacked rebels and Kurds.
So here are Assad's achievements in 1 year:
1) He stopped losing ground in massive way.
2) With help of Hezbollah and heavy bombings managed to cleanse some encircled rebel enclaves in Homs and Qalamoun.
3) In Damascus using starvation and barrel bombs he forced several rebel areas to sign truce. But this truce is not surrender and it can also act in both ways, because rebels from other areas can get supplies now from "truce" areas.
Does it mean that Assad is winning? - Nope.
1) North-East of the country, where are located virtually all Syria's resources dont show any improvement. Rather on contrary.
2) The situation in south of the country became considerably worth for Assad.
Rebel brigades became much more mature in this year. They started production of own artillery (hell cannons and mortars). They received some ATGMs.
Whats going to happen next?
If the situation is not changing (Assad receives massive aid from Russia and Iran, Hezbollah, rebel receive ATGMs) then the situation will not change much either. Assad may finish two remaining enclaves in Homs (Homs old city and the triangle Talbise-Rastan-Houla). If rebels receive more supplies (lots of ATGM, mortars, some MANPADS) then Assad will begin losing ground again.
------------------------------------
Anyway, Assads economy is destroyed for good, he cant survive anymore without billions of annual aid from Russia and Iran. Basically only prolonging his agony.
OrionHunter
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The Yanks must be terribly pissed off at the turn of events! 
Kaal123
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Assad is a Zionist
Assad is supported by ZionistsThe Yanks must be terribly pissed off at the turn of events!
Pakistanisage
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Assad and His Friends Brag About Winning | Daniel R. DePetris
Posted: 04/18/2014 9:11 am EDT Updated: 04/18/2014 11:59 am EDT
Print Article
Civil WarSyria Civil WarQalamounMiddle EastInternational ConflictHezbollahObama AdministrationSyria Hassan NasrallahSyria ViolenceSyriaBashar Al AssadLevant
Reuters TV/Reuters
Three years, 150,000 deaths, and 9 million Syrian refugees later, is the civil war in Syria starting to turn a corner? Bashar al-Assad and Hassan Nasrallah, his buddy in Lebanon who holds the top leadership position in Hezbollah, certainly seem to think so. All you need to do is ask them, and both will tell you that the progression of the war is not only going their way, but that their opponents in the Syrian opposition will lose the offensive capability that it now has by the end of this year.
Of course, none of us have any independent confirmation as to precisely what Assad and Nasrallah are thinking and saying. We can only rely on comments from people who are either personally close to the two men or reports from the lucky journalist who scores an exclusive interview at just the right time (hello Charlie Rose!). Yet, depending on the circumstances, even second and third-hand accounts are more satisfying than silence -- any information about the world's worst humanitarian calamity in the 21st Century is good information for those monitoring Syria's war.
You might not know who Sergei Stepashin is (hint: He's Russian), and in many ways, it doesn't matter. All that matters is what he said to reporters after he visited Assad for talks on economic relations between Moscow and Damascus -- that is, Assad is bold and confident enough to declare victory by the end of this year.
A former Russian prime minister who recently met Bashar Al Assad said the Syrian president told him that much of the fighting in the country's civil war would be over by the end of the year, Itar-Tass news agency reported on Monday.
Russia has been Al Assad's most powerful supporter during the three-year conflict that activists say has killed more than 150,000 people, blocking Western and Arab efforts to drive him from power.
Sergei Stepashin, who served as prime minister in 1999 under then-President Boris Yeltsin and now heads a charitable organisation, met Al Assad in Damascus last week during a visit to the Middle East, according to Russian news reports.
"To my question about how military issues were going, this is what [Al] Assad said: 'This year the active phase of military action in Syria will be ended. After that we will have to shift to what we have been doing all the time -- fighting terrorists'," state-run Itar-Tass quoted Stepashin as saying.
Nasrallah, the big-wig in Hezbollah, seems to carry the same belief of his friend in Syria. In an interview to Lebanese newspaper al-Safir, Nasrallah predicted that the Syrian Government is now strong enough to withstand any full-scale assault that the armed opposition is preparing in the future. President Obama used to say that it's only a question of when, not if, Assad will fall. Nasrallah's is exactly the opposite: the only question now is when Bashar al-Assad's army will extinguish the remnants of the rebels.
Here are a few select quotes, courtesy of AFP:
"In my opinion, the phase of bringing down the regime or bringing down the state is over."
------
"I think we have passed the danger of division [of the country]."
------
"They [the rebels] cannot overthrow the regime, but they can wage a war of attrition."
------
"In my view, the pressure on the regime in the coming phase will be less than in the past three years, in terms of political pressure, media pressure and pressure on the ground."
The most realistic thing to do with these comments would be to discard them where they belong -- in the trash bin of two men who have far too much at stake in the conflict to present the slightest weakness. But taken in its appropriate context, and at a time when the Syrian army and its Hezbollah allies are consolidating their control of Damascus and its suburbsand sweeping up victories in the Qalamoun region -- a region that was once a reliable rebel smuggling point -- these comments exhibit an aura of absolute confidence around Assad and Nasrallah. Both are more than happy with the current balance of power on the battlefield, and they are both clearly pleased that they have managed to defy and outlast western expectations of their demise.
The Obama administration's entire Syria policy rests on the foundation that Assad's internal calculation needs to change. A willingness by Assad to participate in serious and meaningful negotiations is the objective of this policy. Right now, that foundation is crumbling into dust. For Assad, negotiating is a process to be laughed at, because the Syrian army is well on its way to winning the war without them .
i am looking forward to a middle east controlled by shia, jews, christians and kurds
Even if it is true, why would you be celebrating the victory of a DESPOT and a MURDEROUS THUG ?
Are you a Religious Bigot ?
As much as i hate Asssad but the problem is when you raise armed resistance against established government it cannot bode well for the country. The rebels have destroyed a functioning country. Syria will never be at peace again. Different sides will keep supporting their proxies..
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