Asian nations to ink big Chinese-backed trade deal on Nov. 15, covering around a third of the world's population

[vi-va]

This is why inviting India into BRICS, SCO were a mistake too.

The region would have so much growth if the RCEP wasn’t delayed by India.

I think inviting BRICS is ok. BRICS is nothing anyway.
Inviting India into SCO is not China's idea at all. Of course Russia's. I am not sure Russia regret or not. But it's doomed. Inviting India into SCO weakened the organization. If that's Russia want, so be it.
China can live with or without SCO.

If you take a closer look, China cooperate with Central Asia countries individually instead.
SCO should evolve into economic cooperation platform, while Russia rejected, developed Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) instead. It's exclusive to other members.
Russia also has Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). It's exclusive to other members.

SCO is dead horse anyway. SCO has almost finished the mission it can carry during past 20 years.

 

[shi12jun]

I think they want to join RCEP, BRICS, SCO, etc to sabotage it.

You are really right, India is the game destroyer

 

[8888888888888]

This is why inviting India into BRICS, SCO were a mistake too.

The region would have so much growth if the RCEP wasn’t delayed by India.

Getting India into SCO is more Russian influence.

 

[vi-va]

You are really right, India is the game destroyer

China is no fool. China play with them, at least before 2020 China–India skirmishes.

China has plan B. China built AIIB, about also Silk Road Fund.
China built BRICS, but BRICS is nothing but a smoke screen to cover up (悄然崛起，四块砖一块金)
SCO is dead horse, long time ago. Russia and China are the biggest 2 players in Central Asia. India in SCO, or not, doesn't matter.

 

[bshifter]

The big news is we finally finalized the deal. Biden however will be having a very tough time ahead domestically. Trump will do more damage internally in the next 2 months after he realized he has no hope to get a 2nd term.

 

[vi-va]

The big news is we finally finalized the deal. Biden however will be having a very tough time ahead domestically. Trump will do more damage internally in the next 2 months after he realized he has no hope to get a 2nd term.

Biden dare not to sign TPP right away. TPP will face tremendous sabotage within US. Any president will have to revise TPP a lot to get a pass. But it will take at least 1-2 years, at least.

 

[TaiShang]

Good timing since the US is busy inside and Pomepo is on a ideological crusade with no real content in his messages from the pulpit.

RCEP shows Asia Pacific can move on without the US. Even Japan does not need them. Instead, Japan thinks they can do with little India as a balance inside the RCEP. Even this failed due to bad faith behavior of India.

India put a major faith in its (then) new sacred cow (should I say, duck?), Trump, but, Trump did not deliver much. Now India, with even Russia getting cooler, has to stick with Dementia Joe.

Good riddance. They are a match made in heaven.

 

[Vapour]

Why isn't Pakistan amongst the invitees?

 

[ILC]

So the end tensions with Australia? If China-Australia are included in free trade deal how Australia is going to block Huawei and China other imports which had blocked in retaliation?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Biden dare not to sign TPP right away. TPP will face tremendous sabotage within US. Any president will have to revise TPP a lot to get a pass. But it will take at least 1-2 years, at least.

TPP is dead for Biden. TPP was already signed without the US, removing all the restrictions against IP, legal and privacy regulations. This is not good for US corporate giants. There's no point to signing it now that the exact parts the US wanted are gone. They have to go through the arduous process of applying to join, being accepted, then trying to change the treaty from within.

There's no hope for that, they can never change it before signing but if they can't change it they can't sign it. The congress will not ratify it since Republicans are almost certain to retain control of the Senate. Forget foreign treaties, just think about the amount of domestic crises that need to be solved.

 

[vi-va]

TPP is dead for Biden. TPP was already signed without the US, removing all the restrictions against IP, legal and privacy regulations. This is not good for US corporate giants. There's no point to signing it now that the exact parts the US wanted are gone. They have to go through the arduous process of applying to join, being accepted, then trying to change the treaty from within.

There's no hope for that, they can never change it before signing but if they can't change it they can't sign it. The congress will not ratify it since Republicans are almost certain to retain control of the Senate. Forget foreign treaties, just think about the amount of domestic crises that need to be solved.

A meaningful treaty must have at least a big market, huge populations. EU is a large market, so are US and China.

The thing is all other TPP members want US market. TPP without US is like puppies party. Japan is not a big market at all. Also Japan is manufacture hub, Japan need others' market.

Biden will try to join TPP, add back those pro US clause. But US domestic protest will scare Democrats a lot, while other TPP members will bargain as well, since they are RCEP members now, they can play hedging game with Yankees.

I think it will cost Biden political capital an arm and leg to get the TPP he want.

While Japan is way smarter than India, played well. Japan is beneficiary of both TPP and RCEP. India is out of both TPP and RCEP, biggest loser in this game.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

A meaningful treaty must have at least a big market, huge populations. EU is a large market, so are US and China.

The thing is all other TPP members want US market. TPP without US is like puppies party. Japan is not a big market at all. Also Japan is manufacture hub, Japan need others' market.

Biden will try to join TPP, add back those pro US clause. But US domestic protest will scare Democrats a lot, while other TPP members will bargain as well, since they are RCEP members now, they can play hedging game with Yankees.

I think it will cost Biden political capital an arm and leg to get the TPP he want.

While Japan is way smarter than India, played well. Japan is beneficiary of both TPP and RCEP. India is out of both TPP and RCEP, biggest loser in this game.

current TPP members will never agree to the onerous conditions since the treaty is already signed. if Biden does sign, it will be to the existing treaty which has limited benefit. current TPP is already bigger than ASEAN so it is still meaningful. Biden doesn't have the political capital to change it too much, and then you have to think about domestic US considerations.

by the time it is signed as a watered down treaty, it is already too late for containment.

 

[mike2000 is back]

Exactly. India is not interested in development. Should never have included them in the first place. India delayed the deal and then pulled out. Wasted everyone’s time. Utterly useless country.

Ahahaha......funny. but you have a point about India being very reluctant in free trade deals. In fact in most ways India seems to be more communist than China itself.

Why isn't Pakistan amongst the invitees?

Lol South Asian countries seem to be cut off from the world's vibrant economic/trade block./supply chains. Reason they are so poor and growth seems to be less than their real potential. South Asian countries don't trade much with even themselves(much less the world) given the trade barriers and outdated protectionists policies they have implemented and a policy of using conflict/dispute to limit trade and investment. Just look at the Silly meaningless trade figures between Pakistan and India, compare it to the trade figures and economic links between China and Japan for example (same population ratio and same geo political disputes). You can see the difference clear as day. Sane with the massive trade going on between China and Taiwan (2 long bitter disputes). Etc.
By contrast South Asian countries adopted opposite policy of semi isolation/protectionism and emotional policies to limit trade from countries they have disputes with. This has led to their current predicament. Only a revolution of mindset can set the region free. East Asia is generations ahead by contrast, even South East Asia is way ahead of you guys . . Only subsharanAfrica is left to overtake you guys with their trade and economic connectivity. Lol

 

[vi-va]

current TPP members will never agree to the onerous conditions since the treaty is already signed. if Biden does sign, it will be to the existing treaty which has limited benefit. current TPP is already bigger than ASEAN so it is still meaningful. Biden doesn't have the political capital to change it too much, and then you have to think about domestic US considerations.

by the time it is signed as a watered down treaty, it is already too late for containment.

The TPP nowadays is CTTPP, Ratifiers (dark green) other Signatories (light green)

1. Developed countries, Canada, Japan, Australia, Singapore. Those are market.
2. Developed countries population 180 millions. GDP 8 trillions. While US alone, 20 trillions, 320 millions. China, 15 trillions, 14 billions.
3. Japan is a manufacture hub, exporter and investor. Target market China and US.
4. Australia is agriculture, milk, meat, natural gas, iron ore, exporter. Target market China.
5. Canada is oil, lumber, wheat, meat exporter. Target market US
6. Singapore is too small.
7. Other members in TPP are labor intensive manufacturers, not big market at all.

The whole point of TPP is designed for US market. Otherwise the goods and services can not flow and create enough values. CTTPP is meaningful, but much less meaningful than original design.

Oh, btw, TPP is a counter balance China trade treaty. Thanks tRump.

Ahahaha......funny. but you have a point about India being very reluctant in free trade deals. In fact in most ways India seems to be more communist than China itself.

Lol South Asian countries seem to be cut off from the world's vibrant economic/trade block./supply chains. Reason they are so poor and growth seems to be less than their real potential. South Asian countries don't trade much with even themselves(much less the world) given the trade barriers and outdated protectionists policies they have implemented and a policy of using conflict/dispute to limit trade and investment. Just look at the Silly meaningless trade figures between Pakistan and India, compare it to the trade figures and economic links between China and Japan for example (same population ratio and same geo political disputes). You can see the difference clear as day. Sane with the massive trade going on between China and Taiwan (2 long bitter disputes). Etc.
By contrast South Asian countries adopted opposite policy of semi isolation/protectionism and emotional policies to limit trade from countries they have disputes with. This has led to their current predicament. Only a revolution of mindset can set the region free. East Asia is generations ahead by contrast, even South East Asia is way ahead of you guys . . Only subsharanAfrica is left to overtake you guys with their trade and economic connectivity. Lol

Political dispute is political dispute. Trade is trade.

1. East Asia developed because their wisdom. They put dispute aside, and focus on development and prosperity.
2. While ME and South Asia, especially India, mixed political dispute and trade together.
3. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is a dead horse.
4. India doesn't trade much with neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh.
5. India protectionism isolate India itself.

Jai Hind slogan only fool those Indians. Modi is no different from other leaders.

Modi leave RCEP is one of the biggest mistakes he made, but that's India, a lame duck.

 

[Beidou2020]

India is now out of RCEP and TPP