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Ankara weighs options in Syria stalemate
In the wake of last week’s failed bid by the Arab League to halt violence in Syria, Turkey now more than ever may be pressured into creating a humanitarian “buffer zone” in Syria, a form of intervention which regional experts say, carries unknown consequences.
“Some form of intervention in Syria will be considered seriously if events worsen and international action is absent. Middle East expert Oytun Orhan told Sunday’s Zaman on Friday. Orhan, a fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), says that such a development would prove to be a “last choice” for Turkey in an eight-month conflict that has seen Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad crack down against an anti-regime protest movement.
Ankara has sent increasingly clear signals that it would consider such a “last choice” in recent weeks, with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu telling the Financial Times in a Tuesday interview that “we hope that there will be no need for [a buffer zone or a no-fly zone] but of course humanitarian issues are important ... protecting citizens is the responsibility of every state.”
The increasing willingness to discuss a limited form of intervention in Syria comes amid widely held expectations that Wednesday’s Arab League cease-fire deal with Syria would fail to stop bloodshed, expectations which seemed to be confirmed when over 20 were reported killed by security forces in the 24 hours following the deal’s announcement.
The continuing violence, says Orhan, puts Ankara into a difficult position as it waits for the Arab League to condemn Assad after the failed deal, and to subsequently translate into Russian and Chinese support for sanctions at the United Nations. “Turkey wants to solve the crisis diplomatically. However, they must wait for more support in the UN, and until then developments continue in Syria.”
While Orhan believes that the development of a “buffer zone” to protect civilians within Syria is not unimaginable considering Turkey’s current protection of over 7,000 civilians in its own borders, the results of such a project remain untested. Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and director of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, cautions that involvement could provoke Turkey into direct conflict with Syria, commenting that “Turkey doesn’t need such an adventure.”
Orhan, who imagines that the buffer zone would be a limited space, perhaps 30 kilometers wide into Syrian territory from the Turkish border, says that the limited character of such an intervention would make hostilities between Turkey and Syria unlikely. “Neither the Syrian regime nor Turkey would seek an armed confrontation or an escalation of hostilities,” he stated.
Yet the inherent uncertainties of the conflict could complicate any clear vision of intervention. Orhan also imagines scenarios in which Turkey protects rebel held cities such as war-ravaged Homs, or supplies arms to the Syrian Free Army, a group of military deserters who have vowed to overthrow the regime. Orhan qualifies such comments by saying that these steps would only be possible given the continuation of a strong opposition movement and the belief that such steps could change the balance of the conflict.
According to Syria expert Landis, however, such potential escalations are exactly why Ankara must review intervention in Syria against the possibility of further engagement. “Once you go down that road, you’re going to war against Syria, and you’ve got to be prepared to finish the job,” he told Today’s Zaman in an interview on Thursday.
Talk of intervention also raises the question of how long Turkey might be willing to sustain a humanitarian intervention in Syria, and Landis believes that any mission would be up against a regime well prepared for extended conflict. “It is becoming increasingly clear to the West that Assad remains strong on the ground, his military has remained faithful, and he retains an important degree of support from a not inconsiderable segment of the Syrian people,” Landis told Sunday’s Zaman.
The multitude of unknowns surrounding intervention cause both Landis and Orhan to stress caution. “The Syrian problem involves lots of risks for Turkey. We have cultural and economic links in this country that cannot be understated. It is Turkey that will suffer politically and socially from any instability,” Orhan stated.
While Ankara begins to discuss the possibility of intervention, both experts say that the key to putting more diplomatic pressure on Syria rests with the Arab League. According to Landis, the Arab League will need to “follow the example of Turkey,” condemning the regime after failing to leverage its privileged relations with the regime into reforms.
Landis states that a change in stance from the Arab League will provide the best scenario for gaining a UN condemnation and sanctions, long awaited by Turkey and the West. Once the league condemns Syria, “then all eyes will be focused on China and Russia. Only by strong condemnation from the Arab League will China and Russia be forced into condemning Syria at the UN.”
Such official pressure would be a welcome development for Ankara. “Turkey is hoping for a solution in the UN,” Orhan stated. “Turkey has from the start wanted to solve this crisis diplomatically.”
Ankara weighs options in Syria stalemate
In the wake of last week’s failed bid by the Arab League to halt violence in Syria, Turkey now more than ever may be pressured into creating a humanitarian “buffer zone” in Syria, a form of intervention which regional experts say, carries unknown consequences.
“Some form of intervention in Syria will be considered seriously if events worsen and international action is absent. Middle East expert Oytun Orhan told Sunday’s Zaman on Friday. Orhan, a fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), says that such a development would prove to be a “last choice” for Turkey in an eight-month conflict that has seen Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad crack down against an anti-regime protest movement.
Ankara has sent increasingly clear signals that it would consider such a “last choice” in recent weeks, with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu telling the Financial Times in a Tuesday interview that “we hope that there will be no need for [a buffer zone or a no-fly zone] but of course humanitarian issues are important ... protecting citizens is the responsibility of every state.”
The increasing willingness to discuss a limited form of intervention in Syria comes amid widely held expectations that Wednesday’s Arab League cease-fire deal with Syria would fail to stop bloodshed, expectations which seemed to be confirmed when over 20 were reported killed by security forces in the 24 hours following the deal’s announcement.
The continuing violence, says Orhan, puts Ankara into a difficult position as it waits for the Arab League to condemn Assad after the failed deal, and to subsequently translate into Russian and Chinese support for sanctions at the United Nations. “Turkey wants to solve the crisis diplomatically. However, they must wait for more support in the UN, and until then developments continue in Syria.”
While Orhan believes that the development of a “buffer zone” to protect civilians within Syria is not unimaginable considering Turkey’s current protection of over 7,000 civilians in its own borders, the results of such a project remain untested. Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and director of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, cautions that involvement could provoke Turkey into direct conflict with Syria, commenting that “Turkey doesn’t need such an adventure.”
Orhan, who imagines that the buffer zone would be a limited space, perhaps 30 kilometers wide into Syrian territory from the Turkish border, says that the limited character of such an intervention would make hostilities between Turkey and Syria unlikely. “Neither the Syrian regime nor Turkey would seek an armed confrontation or an escalation of hostilities,” he stated.
Yet the inherent uncertainties of the conflict could complicate any clear vision of intervention. Orhan also imagines scenarios in which Turkey protects rebel held cities such as war-ravaged Homs, or supplies arms to the Syrian Free Army, a group of military deserters who have vowed to overthrow the regime. Orhan qualifies such comments by saying that these steps would only be possible given the continuation of a strong opposition movement and the belief that such steps could change the balance of the conflict.
According to Syria expert Landis, however, such potential escalations are exactly why Ankara must review intervention in Syria against the possibility of further engagement. “Once you go down that road, you’re going to war against Syria, and you’ve got to be prepared to finish the job,” he told Today’s Zaman in an interview on Thursday.
Talk of intervention also raises the question of how long Turkey might be willing to sustain a humanitarian intervention in Syria, and Landis believes that any mission would be up against a regime well prepared for extended conflict. “It is becoming increasingly clear to the West that Assad remains strong on the ground, his military has remained faithful, and he retains an important degree of support from a not inconsiderable segment of the Syrian people,” Landis told Sunday’s Zaman.
The multitude of unknowns surrounding intervention cause both Landis and Orhan to stress caution. “The Syrian problem involves lots of risks for Turkey. We have cultural and economic links in this country that cannot be understated. It is Turkey that will suffer politically and socially from any instability,” Orhan stated.
While Ankara begins to discuss the possibility of intervention, both experts say that the key to putting more diplomatic pressure on Syria rests with the Arab League. According to Landis, the Arab League will need to “follow the example of Turkey,” condemning the regime after failing to leverage its privileged relations with the regime into reforms.
Landis states that a change in stance from the Arab League will provide the best scenario for gaining a UN condemnation and sanctions, long awaited by Turkey and the West. Once the league condemns Syria, “then all eyes will be focused on China and Russia. Only by strong condemnation from the Arab League will China and Russia be forced into condemning Syria at the UN.”
Such official pressure would be a welcome development for Ankara. “Turkey is hoping for a solution in the UN,” Orhan stated. “Turkey has from the start wanted to solve this crisis diplomatically.”
Ankara weighs options in Syria stalemate
