(Andrew Small) Trump beware: Pakistan’s luck playing China card is turning

[PDFChamp]

Interesting take by Andrew Small, the guy who wrote the book: "China-Pakistan Axis". After reading his article, it's safe to say that if the US is sincere in sticking around long enough and commits enough to bring peace to Af., Pakistan will help. But, the onus is on the US after so many fits and starts of its Af policy. US can no longer expect Pakistan to jump all in after every policy shift.

By Andrew Small
27 Aug 2017

At the lowest ebb of the last annus horribilis for US-Pakistan ties in 2011, soon after the special forces raid that killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan brandished the China card: if relations with Washington were going into a tailspin, Islamabad would turn to Beijing instead. They were rebuffed. China discreetly made it clear to both the United States and Pakistan that the “all-weather friendship” was already as deep as they wanted it to be and that Islamabad needed to focus on fixing its relations with Washington.

With President Donald Trump’s announcement that the new US South Asia strategy will involve tightening the screws on Pakistan if it doesn’t address militant safe havens within its borders, the early indications are that the China card will be played again. This time, however, Pakistan may have more luck. The relationship with Beijing is in a very different place now and while China will take its usual care not to get caught in the middle, it is likely to provide a stronger backdrop of support than it did the last time US-Pakistan tensions escalated.

If Pakistan comes under real pressure, China will probably be willing to extend forms of economic support and political protection it would previously have balked at. A version of this already played out in 2015, when Pakistan was being pushed by the Saudis and the UAE to play a significant role in the military campaign in Yemen. Chinese economic reassurances helped Pakistan to resist the entreaties and financial threats. China has also given stronger political cover to Pakistan in international forums.

While CPEC might help to shift Pakistan’s security calculus in a benign direction over the longer term, in the short term, it is likely to give Pakistan additional breathing space if it decides to face the US down.

Best for US & Pakistan: Manage their relationships without getting a divorce. Renewing of the relationships can only be accomplished by focusing on areas which India cannot spoil easily: "Geography is Destiny" and India is geographically isolated like an island when it comes to Central Asia. India is forcing the US to choose between it and Pakistan. But, the US' interest requires it to avoid this false choice and to work with both nuclear powers.

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopo...are-pakistans-luck-playing-china-card-turning

 

[shahbaz baig]

world has moved and U.S still stuck on OBL.
my question to U.S is OBL greatest then Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Iran & U.S Nations ?

Pakistan reservation is very serious. U.S provided space to India in Afghanistan & India mislead to U.S and started to brainwash afghan army not only against Pakistan but also against U.S too. India scarifies are zero but wants to get fruits and opportunity by using afghan soils. India will never send her troops in Afghanistan to fight against terrorists but Mr. trump is expecting alot from India. it would be better for U.S to work with other regional countries who shares border with Afghanistan. and for this India agency raw should not have any role in Afghanistan.

what India is doing in Afghanistan except creating more hates and except creating proxies against Pakistan? India is free to do business with Afghanistan but what Indian agencies is doing in Afghanistan ?

 

[PDFChamp]

India in Afghanistan misled U.S and started to brainwash Afghan army not only against Pakistan but also against U.S too. India scarifies are zero but wants to get fruits and opportunity by using afghan soils.

You are right. But, despite this, why is India good at convincing the US of making it the South Asian hegemon? It's because it has convinced the US professional army, the career officers, that it will buy billions in US weapons and contain China on their behalf. These career officers have lucrative jobs waiting for them after they leave the army if they can sell billions of arms. (Based on comments of a 31 year office (Col) Larry Wilkerson, US Army, retired; chief of staff to Gen. Collin Powell)

But, by calling India out (and throwing Pakistan under the bus on India's request), Trump is having India prove its promises to fight and die on behalf of the US. Let's see if India delivers on its commitments.

 

[shahbaz baig]

You are right. But, despite this, why is India good at convincing the US of making it the South Asian hegemon? It's because it has convinced the US professional army, the career officers, that it will buy billions in US weapons and contain China on their behalf. These career officers have lucrative jobs waiting for them after they leave the army if they can sell billions of arms. (Based on comments of a 31 year office (Col) Larry Wilkerson, US Army, retired; chief of staff to Gen. Collin Powell)

But, by calling India out (and throwing Pakistan under the bus on India's request), Trump is having India prove its promises to fight and die on behalf of the US. Let's see if India delivers on its commitments.

all the fictions which India created in front of U.S will soon backfire. Indian fictions has nothing to do with reality. India took OBL incident and started to provoke U.S & U.S unable to understand that OBL is not greatest then Afghan, Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and US nations.

i am not saying that India should be out but Indian agency Raw should be out. because Indian agency is provoking afghan army. any country should be free to do business anywhere but should not be allowed to brainwash against others especially against neighbor.

 

[Sharpshooter12]

I will distribute sweets om pdf whenever indian troops steps on afghan soil and engage taliban directly. When taliban blow themselves in front of indian army. Man they will wet their pants. Then that fight will come in india. Muslim vs hindu fight will errupt in india becoz of this. total lost for india

I don't think India is that stupid. They will never send their own troops to Afghanistan.

1. They will become a new target for Jihadis from all around the world. With millions of Indian expats working across the world, they will be easy targets for such groups. And India is no US and has a huge Muslim population so there will be a wave terrorist attacks across India.

2. Indian army has no experience and lacks expertise for a foreign adventure like this. Looking at how Sri Lankan affair ended up for them, they would like to stay out of the quagmire we call Afghanistan. After all the mountain range in Afghanistan is called " Hindu Kush "

3. Even if they somehow manage to put up a decent force in Afghanistan and it starts taking action against Taliban, that will require things like night raids and bombings etc. This will completely destroy the good will India has been able to generate with Afghan people through its development projects and propaganda. They do have a lot of good will with Afghan people BTW.

 

[Mrc]

Indians don't seems to have a proper strike aircraft as well at the moment... su 30 is a fighter... bomber version is su 34... which India does not have... they 40 or so mirajes but they are under going upgrades


Mug 29.... Syrians also had migs

 

[TMA]

I don't think India is that stupid. They will never send their own troops to Afghanistan.

1. They will become a new target for Jihadis from all around the world. With millions of Indian expats working across the world, they will be easy targets for such groups. And India is no US and has a huge Muslim population so there will be a wave terrorist attacks across India.

2. Indian army has no experience and lacks expertise for a foreign adventure like this. Looking at how Sri Lankan affair ended up for them, they would like to stay out of the quagmire we call Afghanistan. After all the mountain range in Afghanistan is called " Hindu Kush "

3. Even if they somehow manage to put up a decent force in Afghanistan and it starts taking action against Taliban, that will require things like night raids and bombings etc. This will completely destroy the good will India has been able to generate with Afghan people through its development projects and propaganda. They do have a lot of good will with Afghan people BTW.

I know they are not that stupid but perhaps they are arrogant enough to fall for Trump's exhortation.

 

[Sharpshooter12]

I know they are not that stupid but perhaps they are arrogant enough to fall for Trump's exhortation.

The only thing that can make them jump into this mess will be Hindutva inferiority complex, being able to deploy a Hindu army in Afghanistan of all places must mean something for those guys. But even though these goons have more than usual say in India in these days, I don't think their establishment is that stupid.

 

[Bouncer]

Let's give our Eastern neighbor some due credit. They have played a very smart game. Here are the facts;

1. Pakistan lost 70k lives and 100B dollars
2. Pakistan continues to host 3M+ Afghans inside our cities and towns
3. US has spent close to a Trillion dollars in Afghanistan and lost a couple thousand troops
4. Total Indian investment (aid and loans included) is peanuts compared to above
5. Afghanistan is still *ucked as ever and nowhere near peace

And somehow India is considered a friend by Afghans. India deserves to be given a role in Afghanistan. And Pakistan is the evil state *ucking things up. That is just brilliant.

Who cares that Afghans are the real victims here. And that the corrupt government installed on them by US and dictated by India is their real enemy.