Mehmet
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2011
- Messages
- 249
- Reaction score
- 0
A Quick Analysis to The Fallout of the Israeli-Turkish Relations
By Mehmet
A quick analysis to both countries before the Mavi Marmara incident shows an interesting possibility to why Israel which the Palmer report all but confirms that aid activists were executed used such excessive force. With the airing of their intention on the get go to bring aid to Gaza Israel the IDF who had a significant time to plan and execute their interception could have willingly gone looking to cause an incident as this would weaken Erdogan's government IF the military from the start firmly stated that they the secular army do not support the position of breaking ties & seeking justice against Israel, this would have the following effects on Turkey and in the following chronological order:
1. PM Erdogan without the backing of the military would be unable to voice strong opposition to Israels actions.
2. Discontent would echo with Erdogan from the lower rankings of civilian society all the way to Erdogan & president Gul.
3. Sensing the public discontent with Erdogan the military could have executed a coup against the government and replace it with a more pro Israeli government.
The above scenario gains support from the fact that military ties did not immediately break as well as the fact that both countries have trained and operated together on many occasions forming the possibility of complex ties between the TAF & IDF.
In essence analysis reveals that the IDF could have deliberately caused an incident in an attempt to strengthen the position of the TAF against the AKP. It should be noted that the government of Turkey warned the flotilla members not to sail to Gaza as it would most likely provoke the IDF.
What did however happen had the opposite to what Israel desired if the above scenario is to be taken as truth since not only did PM Erdogan pursue justice and seek action through diplomatic channels but it also further aligned the TAF with the civilian government culminating in the resignation this year of the armed forces top brass.
What the IDF and foreign observers and entities fail to realize given the above analysis if we take it as truth is that the TAF until recently does not answer to the government & even with laws passed on by the government in Ankara if the TAF deems it necessary it would stage a coup ignoring all laws in place and replacing them with laws that suit it's position as was the case in the coup of the 80's. The TAF however unlike many other nation's armed forces answers to the people & people alone, it is in effect the will of the people of Turkey who in 1974 after decades long inter communal conflict in Cyprus finally demanded that the government take action and the result was the intervention in Cyprus. In the current situation the actions of the IDF not only caused an uproar in Turkey which strengthened Erdogan's position but it also had the effect of unifying both secular and the mildly religious elements that make up the support base of the AKP.
For Israel the loss of Turkey has come at the worst possible time as not long after the Mavi Marmara incident and almost as if it was overnight the Arab Spring revolutions took place & pro-Israeli government such as that of Egypt's Mubarak were ousted & even allies such as Saudi Arabia sensing the growing influence of Turkey in the region and reacting to the desires of it's people has warned the US that if it does not vote for a Palestinian state recognition in the upcoming UN vote then it would have no option but to distance itself and make decisions that support the continued harmony of Saudi Arabia.
The current reality is that Israel is not only facing an increasingly confident and assertive Turkey from the north but it also faces Egypt from the south who is a power in it's own right with total 800 aircraft and 220 naval ships (source:globalfirepower.com) it is not to be taken lightly. Israel has recently has also insulted Jordan however the military strength of Jordan is negligible but it does further help the Turkish-Arab camp in further isolating and boxing in Israel.
Posting somewhere from the world wide cobweb:
Mehmet.
