An analysis of case and death counts in India, along with results of large-scale antibody tests, helps arrive at several possible estimates for the true scale of devastation in the country
Experts around the world agree that India’s official figure of just over 300,000 coronavirus deaths is a severe undercount of the true tally. Using statistics from blood tests that survey how many Indians have been infected with the virus, The New York Times has estimated that the true death toll ranges from roughly double the official figures to potentially catastrophic levels of unacknowledged deaths of well over 1 million or even higher.
Even getting a clear picture of the total number of infections in India is hard because of poor record-keeping and a lack of widespread testing. Estimating the true number of deaths requires a second layer of extrapolation, depending on the share of those infected who end up dying. Last week, India recorded the largest daily death toll for any country during the pandemic — a figure that is most likely still an undercount.
Experts around the world agree that India’s official figure of just over 300,000 coronavirus deaths is a severe undercount of the true tally. Using statistics from blood tests that survey how many Indians have been infected with the virus, The New York Times has estimated that the true death toll ranges from roughly double the official figures to potentially catastrophic levels of unacknowledged deaths of well over 1 million or even higher.
Even getting a clear picture of the total number of infections in India is hard because of poor record-keeping and a lack of widespread testing. Estimating the true number of deaths requires a second layer of extrapolation, depending on the share of those infected who end up dying. Last week, India recorded the largest daily death toll for any country during the pandemic — a figure that is most likely still an undercount.
