America Is Headed to a Showdown Over Taiwan, and China Might Win

[shanlung]

The title of this thread is very wrong.

It should read
and China might WILL win

 

[FuturePAF]

absorbing missile strikes won't be enough. they'll be facing an air and naval onslaught 100x worse than Iraq did during Desert Storm. US paralyzed Iraq with just 350 Tomahawks; there's 2000+ missiles aimed at Taiwan.

The other part is that Taiwanese defense strategy relies on holding the beach with their army. That won't work: either they concentrate forces at the beach where there is little cover and are easily destroyed by armed swarm drones, or they give up the beach and allow PLA heavy armor to land.

Hence why half of Taiwan doesn’t want to fight.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Taiwanese gov. and military are preparing their territory to absorb missile strikes and work on means to destroy an invasion force (called the “Overall Defense concept”, devised by one of their admirals if i remember correctly.

Taiwan’s Overall Defense Concept, Explained

By: Admiral (ret.) Lee Hsi-min and Eric Lee | THE DIPLOMAT | At a time of growing assertiveness in Beijing’s foreign policy and growing risk of cross-strait […]

project2049.net

Should China secure a beachhead, especially close to Taipei, they may capitulate. In a recent poll 49% of Taiwanese don’t want to fight to defend Taiwan.

Nearly half of Taiwanese unwilling to fight to defend nation | Taiwan News | 2020-07-20 20:57:00

75.2% of those surveyed agree Taiwan should expand military conscription | 2020-07-20 20:57:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

Taiwan is planning on cutting conscription from 1 year to just 4 months.

Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell

The end of conscription has left the army critically undermanned.

foreignpolicy.com

At the same time the US marines are working on the means to get long range missiles to take out Chinese forces. There’s a great article called “the case for change” by Marine Corp General Berger explaining the reorganization rationale to make way for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI).

Ultimately, Taiwan is a pivotal place. If China can’t take Taiwan its bottled up in the first island chain. But if China can take it, it can more easily move into the wider pacific, especially with submarines (easy access to deep water right off Taiwan) and carrier battle groups.

Its a Thucydides trap indeed, and the encirclement is underway, with the Indians looking to get in on the build up

Among those projects are hypersonic missiles that Army leaders say are needed for deterrence and if the U.S. were to go to war with China.

“Long-range precision fires will give us the capability to penetrate anti-access area-denial environments, to suppress air defenses from strategic range and set up our own anti-access area-denial capabilities,” McConville said. “We will field hypersonic, mid-range, and precision- strike missiles some time in the fiscal year 2023.”

https://www.defenseone.com/business...chief-warns-budget-forcing-him-choose/172709/

China better hurry before the US Army begins lining the First Island chain with precision strike networks.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Among those projects are hypersonic missiles that Army leaders say are needed for deterrence and if the U.S. were to go to war with China.

“Long-range precision fires will give us the capability to penetrate anti-access area-denial environments, to suppress air defenses from strategic range and set up our own anti-access area-denial capabilities,” McConville said. “We will field hypersonic, mid-range, and precision- strike missiles some time in the fiscal year 2023.”

https://www.defenseone.com/business...chief-warns-budget-forcing-him-choose/172709/

China better hurry before the US Army begins lining the First Island chain with precision strike networks.

Hypersonic missiles is not the end game. While useful, it is not game changer. The day the US targets a Chinese artificial island in South China Sea is the day Guam and Hawaii cease to exist as we know it.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Hypersonic missiles is not the end game. While useful, it is not game changer. The day the US targets a Chinese artificial island in South China Sea is the day Guam and Hawaii cease to exist as we know it.

Hypersonics are definitely a gamechanger as the US military builds out its triad.

Hypersonics coupled with new advanced cruise/ballistic missiles and new strike platforms such as the B-21 bomber allows the US military to strike any Chinese target at will.

It’s not a single weapon, but the combined effects that will provide the US military overmatch.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Hypersonics are definitely a gamechanger as the US military builds out its triad.

Hypersonics coupled with new advanced cruise/ballistic missiles and new strike platforms such as the B-21 bomber allows the US military to strike any Chinese target at will.

It’s not a single weapon, but the combined effects that will provide the US military overmatch.

If the US really wanted to take China out the US could have forced China to surrender without a fight in 1949 when the US had nukes. That ship has sailed. Now China has hypersonic missiles too.

The National Interest: Blog

nationalinterest.org

 

[FuturePAF]

If the US really wanted to take China out the US could have forced China to surrender without a fight in 1949 when the US had nukes. That ship has sailed. Now China has hypersonic missiles too.

The National Interest: Blog

nationalinterest.org

It won’t just be hypersonics vs. hypersonics. The US and its ALLIES have the lead in networks and datalinks. Cyber war will be where a lot of the fighting will take place. Hence the thousands of Space X satellites for ensure communication channels and the volume for all the network traffic.

How good is China’s defense networks at defense against cyber attack? Stuxnet was one example of what they US can do (targeted destruction of key infrastructure). they probably have thousands of zero days and back doors lined up for the operating systems used in China.

A lot of what the US can do is not visible. It’s the C4ISR that they will take out before official hostilities have commenced. Imagine the 100 day air campaign of the gulf war but in cyber space and compressed to 100 hours at most. Then followed by 10 hour missile barrage or submarine hunt in the Taiwan strait with autonomous drone ships.

There is a reason Xi doesn’t want a war right now, and wants to reach parity with the US and it’s Allies first; 2035-2049. He is smart to know that he needs to build up his strength until it is overwhelming to the Taiwanese, and they see the writing on the wall and capitulate. Xi knows once hostilities start, technology cutoffs will be severe and FDI may slow down, so he needs to finish building up the self-reliance in all high tech fields (vision 2025).

Taiwan is not going any where. China has to make Taiwan economically irrelevant to really defeat from a value stand point, similar to how Hong Kong was made irrelevant in economic terms through the banking sector of China. Hence, China has to have better chip manufacturing then Taiwan. That is the real battle to watch, along with China’s advancements in secure networks and datalinks.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

It won’t just be hypersonics vs. hypersonics. The US and its ALLIES have the lead in networks and datalinks. Cyber war will be where a lot of the fighting will take place. Hence the thousands of Space X satellites for ensure communication channels and the volume for all the network traffic.

How good is China’s defense networks at defense against cyber attack? Stuxnet was one example of what they US can do (targeted destruction of key infrastructure). they probably have thousands of zero days and back doors lined up for the operating systems used in China.

A lot of what the US can do is not visible. It’s the C4ISR that they will take out before official hostilities have commenced. Imagine the 100 day air campaign of the gulf war but in cyber space and compressed to 100 hours at most. Then followed by 10 hour missile barrage or submarine hunt in the Taiwan strait with autonomous drone ships.

There is a reason Xi doesn’t want a war right now, and wants to reach parity with the US and it’s Allies first; 2035-2049. He is smart to know that he needs to build up his strength until it is overwhelming to the Taiwanese, and they see the writing on the wall and capitulate. Xi knows once hostilities start, technology cutoffs will be severe and FDI may slow down, so he needs to finish building up the self-reliance in all high tech fields (vision 2025).

Taiwan is not going any where. China has to make Taiwan economically irrelevant to really defeat from a value stand point, similar to how Hong Kong was made irrelevant in economic terms through the banking sector of China. Hence, China has to have better chip manufacturing then Taiwan. That is the real battle to watch, along with China’s advancements in secure networks and datalinks.

US demographics is on the decline. It's only a matter of time before US can't defend Taiwan anymore. Say 2050 or so. By then China will be fielding 20 carrier strike groups, H-20 strategic bombers, and lord knows maybe even 6th gen combat jets. By then US will be like today's Mexico or Brazil.

Taiwan is not going any where. China has to make Taiwan economically irrelevant to really defeat from a value stand point, similar to how Hong Kong was made irrelevant in economic terms through the banking sector of China.

Economy is irrelevant. North Korea will never join South Korea despite being poor. Cuba will never join the US despite being poor.

 

[FuturePAF]

US demographics is on the decline. It's only a matter of time before US can't defend Taiwan anymore. Say 2050 or so. By then China will be fielding 20 carrier strike groups, H-20 strategic bombers, and lord knows maybe even 6th gen combat jets. By then US will be like today's Mexico or Brazil.


Economy is irrelevant. North Korea will never join South Korea despite being poor. Cuba will never join the US despite being poor.

You’ve got it the other way around. It’s China’s demographics on the decline. It’s just the size of the Chinese population (and rising wealth of the average Chinese) that will offset the aging of society. The US population is steadily growing and so will have an average age less then China for the foreseeable future.

By Declining demographics, you really mean a declining white population. Don’t worry about that, a lot skilled engineers of color are in US institutions.

Also, don’t get to cocky on the numbers Of carrier battle groups and H-20 bombers. It’s the small AI emanated swarming systems in large numbers and connected by robust networks and datalinks that will win the day.
China’s natural advantage of being close to Taiwan will make it almost certain that if they reach parity in technology and can cross the strait with large numbers, they will win the day.

Xi is smart, he is planning for the world after victory, to ensure victory.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The US population is steadily growing and so will have an average age less then China for the foreseeable future.

It is irrelevant. None of the Latin majority countries is strong, despite young age and high birthrate. As soon as Whites are minority in America it's all over for America. While China's population may decline to about half a billion by the 2050, it will be lean and mean, and the world's top economic and military and scientific powerhouse.

 

[FuturePAF]

It is irrelevant. None of the Latin majority countries is strong, despite young age and high birthrate. As soon as Whites are minority in America it's all over for America. While China's population may decline to about half a billion by the 2050, it will be lean and mean, and the world's top economic and military and scientific powerhouse.

America Americanizes its Immigrants, just like China Sino-phys its minorities. When you take the best and brightest out of these countries and give them access to American R&D facilities, they can achieve great things.

They will try to attract developed talent from these countries, especially if in crisis, a brain drain. Also, there are ways they will try to find diamonds in the rough, through college programs.

Don’t let Racism make you underestimate the US. Lao Tzu said “there is no greater danger then underestimating your opponent.”

 

[Jobless Jack]

The west is Lusting for war with Russia and china

Sleepy Joe will be the one who will triggers it

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

America Americanizes its Immigrants, just like China Sino-phys its minorities. When you take the best and brightest out of these countries and give them access to American R&D facilities, they can achieve great things.

Why do you think the best and brightest don't go to places like Mexico or Brazil. The US loses is ability to attract talent as it becomes demographically weaker. On the other hand they will go to places like China.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The west is Lusting for war with Russia and china

Sleepy Joe will be the one who will triggers it

They better be careful what they wish for. If China takes over all Russian land east of Ural and Mongolia, China will be world's biggest country by area and China will be far bigger threat to the US than China is today.

 

[FuturePAF]

Why do you think the best and brightest don't go to places like Mexico or Brazil. The US loses is ability to attract talent as it becomes demographically weaker. On the other hand they will go to places like China.

We will see. As far as why Latin American countries decline, I have found an interesting documentary that lays out why Argentina declined. Some reasons pointed out are internal political instability, foreign control of money supply, relatively low literacy rate, unable to climb the value added chain by developing domestic technologies, failure to reinvest profits back into the industries, high food prices for locals, defaulting on foreign loans, exchange rate manipulation etc.

If China can offer a better deal to the best and brightest from these countries, they they may take it, but will they and their families be able to move to China and live long term in Chinese society, with the level of ease as they do in America. The amenities the US offers is also part of the appeal of America, especially the property rights, which is not offered by to China to foreigners.

Miami is attracting a lot of people from the rest of America as well as historically being one of the places where the upper class immigrating from Latin America move to.

In the new competition, it’s going to be about Data. The US with all its diversity is tapping into a large share of the data coming out of Latin America, Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. China will have to make in roads in these markets, through their governments or populations (in and/or outside the country) to be able to compete with the US.