Agosta 90-B (Hamza) being commissioned

[was]

Submarine Augusta 90-B Hamza to be commissioned on Sept 26
Updated at: 2248 PST, Monday, September 22, 2008
KARACHI: The second indigenously built submarine Augusta 90-B Hamza, is set to be commissioned by the Pakistan Navy on September 26, the Navy announced today.

The Hamza has been indigenously constructed by the Submarine construction department at the Pakistan Navy Dockyard in Karachi.

It is the third of the Augusta 90-B contract submarines ordered from supplier DCNI in France.

The Hamza has gone through rigorous testing before its commissioning. It has undergone over 13 Hundred harbour and sea trials, as well as 20,000 quality control inspections.

It is the first submarine to be equipped with the special MESMA Air Independent Propulsion system. This increases diving duration compared to conventional submarines, and gives the Pakistan navy a tactical advantage.

Currently, the navy requires between 12 and 14 submarines with the transfer of technology achieved through this project, Pakistan will now be able to meet it's future operations requirements.

With the induction of indigenously built submarine Hamza, Pakistan navy has now five operational submarines in its fleet enhancing its combat capabilities.

Submarine Augusta 90-B Hamza to be commissioned on Sept 26 - GEO.tv

 

[EagleEyes]

3 Agosta 90B.. 2 Agosta 70.. 3-5 U-214s to be ordered. Thats like 10 max which will go to seven or eight depending on how many U-214s are procured and retiring of Agosta 70s.

 

[Contrarian]

3 u-214 at max.

 

[Neo]

Your calculation is based on what Malay?

After modernisation of PN we'll take it to next step which is expansion.10-15 modern subs are required by 2020 to counter growing threat from IN.

 

[lv2zam]

The TWO Agosta 70s Hashmat and Hurmat will be long gone by 2020.
I see three Agosta 90s Khalid, Saad and Hamza, Currently Hamza is the only one with MESMA Air Independent Power... There is a possibility if the HAMZA is proven that the French (DCN) Mesma is good the Khalid and Saad will be re-fitted with that system as well.

Then you are looking at the possible 3 at the most 5 German Type 214 (also with AIP but different then the MESMA) that make 6 maybe 8 subs by 2015-2018 what other submarines do you have in mind. An Agosta follow-on like the Marlin...Maybe France will sell PN a Rubis class SSN???? by 2020 PN should be thinking nuc to keep up with India... Or will China sell a old Han Class SSN... tell me.

 

[Contrarian]

Funds primarily. Along with several other reasons. I strongly believe that there would not be more than 3 U-214. Maybe they order a couple more but that would be atleast 10 years from the first order.

 

[Jliu]

Pakistan Spending Falls With Economy

By Usman Ansari
Published: 22 September 2008

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan's defense budget is projected to fall to $3.9 billion in the 2008-09 year, as poor economic conditions place question marks on several programs.

Moreover, it is difficult to know just how much the government is spending on defense. The official budget is partially classified, divided among various pools of money, and widely suspected of being inflated.

According to the official numbers, next year's budget will fall after years of growth. In 1999, Pakistan's defense budget was $2.5 billion and its GDP $64 billion, numbers that rose to $4 billion and $134 billion in 2006. The budget in the 2007-08 budget year grew to $4.53 billion.

However, the budget in the current year has fallen thanks to a defense-spending freeze brought about when political instability caused an economic downturn that began in February.

It is uncertain how the recession will affect defense spending in the 2008-09 year, but large-scale procurement programs may be curtailed. It could also force revisions to the Armed Forces Development Programme (AFDP-2019), according to defense analyst Haris Khan of the PakDef Military Consortium military think tank.

When the AFDP was laid out in 2005, GDP was growing by 7 percent a year, and defense planners considered it feasible to narrow the huge Indo-Pak conventional imbalance by 2019, Khan said.

"The Air Force has already pushed back first delivery of its new F-16 Block 52M from the middle of '09 to end of 2010 or beginning of 2011. While still holding the production slots of optional 18 F-16 C/D, PAF [Pakistan Air Force] high command has pushed [back the decision] to exercise this option to the end of 2009," he said.

Khan said several foreign arms purchases are likely to be curtailed, including frigates, the next-generation submarine, the option for further F-16 Block-52Ms, French weapons and avionics for the JF-17, Hawkeye 2000 AEW&C-equipped P-3s, improvements to the Al-Khalid main battle tank, a navalized JF-17, new helicopter gunship and replacements for the Navy's Sea King helicopters.

The poor economy may further hurt programs delayed by the October 2005 earthquake, which forced Pakistan to reduce the number of F-16 Block-52Ms on order from 75 to 18, with a further 18 as options. It also reduced the planned number of Saab Erieye AEW&C aircraft from seven to six.


Political Stability a Plus

But with political stability returning to Pakistan, the economy may yet pick up. However, the foreign reserves held in the national coffers have crashed to $8.81 billion in early September, from $15.7 billion at the beginning of the year. With such a poor economic outlook, it may be difficult for the above programs to stay on track in the short to medium term.

Defense spending is driven by having to provide a credible deterrent to archrival India's huge defense build-up. Pakistan has a considerably smaller economy; it must therefore spend what it has more judiciously to deter India while avoiding an unwinnable arms race. In the short to medium term, it also seeks to secure weapons to combat an extremist insurrection along the Afghan-Pakistan border.

The government provides no overall breakdown of military spending. In 2006, the defense budget was described in a closed-door session to the Senate Standing Committee on Defence and Defence Production. Even such minimal oversight had been missing since 1966, thanks to a government that considered senators lacking in competence and a sense of confidentiality.

Furthermore, the defense budget is split into a number of categories, and large-scale procurements paid for separately, it is generally agreed that the official defense budget is further inflated by at least $250 million to $500 million.

There are also sources of revenue such as payments from participation in U.N. peacekeeping operations, to which Pakistan is a large contributor.

Added to this is the cost of the national deterrent and ballistic missile program, which is classified, and will remain for the foreseeable future. It is highly uncertain, therefore, that the Pakistani defense budget can be fully dissected outside the military and higher levels of government.

 

[Jliu]

Moreover, it is difficult to know just how much the government is spending on defense. The official budget is partially classified, divided among various pools of money, and widely suspected of being inflated. According to the official numbers, next year's budget will fall after years of growth. In 1999, Pakistan's defense budget was $2.5 billion and its GDP $64 billion, numbers that rose to $4 billion and $134 billion in 2006. The budget in the 2007-08 budget year grew to $4.53 billion.

Informed estimations would factor in defence gross nominal spending to be ~$US18-20 billion unadjusted for inflation. However this figure is significantly reduced by inflationary pressures, fuel, salary expenses, "black projects" and corruption so only about $5-7bn would be available for procurement/upkeep which roughly concurs with the article. Not withstanding a ~$US1.3 billion/year, roughly $845 million CPI adjusted.

"The Air Force has already pushed back first delivery of its new F-16 Block 52M from the middle of '09 to end of 2010 or beginning of 2011. While still holding the production slots of optional 18 F-16 C/D, PAF [Pakistan Air Force] high command has pushed [back the decision] to exercise this option to the end of 2009," he said.

My estimates say autumn 2010 but we are both around the same time.

Khan said several foreign arms purchases are likely to be curtailed, including frigates, the next-generation submarine, the option for further F-16 Block-52Ms, French weapons and avionics for the JF-17, Hawkeye 2000 AEW&C-equipped P-3s, improvements to the Al-Khalid main battle tank, a navalized JF-17, new helicopter gunship and replacements for the Navy's Sea King helicopters.

New build frigates and SSKs appear to be cut, F-16s delayed, JF-17 spiral mods pushed back and the rest cut.

It also reduced the planned number of Saab Erieye AEW&C aircraft from seven to six.

5+1 trainer.

Defense spending is driven by having to provide a credible deterrent to archrival India's huge defense build-up. Pakistan has a considerably smaller economy; it must therefore spend what it has more judiciously to deter India while avoiding an unwinnable arms race. In the short to medium term, it also seeks to secure weapons to combat an extremist insurrection along the Afghan-Pakistan border.

There is a structural deficiency in the way procurement and strategic aims are set out. In other words a clash between the policy makers and the army on the threat matrix and the country's future path.

 

[EagleEyes]

The source isn't really official. It is a possibility given the facts stated in the article. So far everything is going smooth.

 

[Myth_buster_1]

The source isn't really official. It is a possibility given the facts stated in the article. So far everything is going smooth.

please tell you what you are saying is 100% right
Pakistan defence desperately need that upgrade..

 

[araz]

The source isn't really official. It is a possibility given the facts stated in the article. So far everything is going smooth.

HKhan of Pakdef.info is normally a very reliable resource for military tidbits, though, as you say not official. I agree that in light of dire financial situation not helped by inept handling by the current Government, this situation is likely to remai so for sometime to come.
Araz

 

[Munir]

See it the other way. You have not much money left. You have multiple very expensive programs. Do you expect that you do not cancel them?

 

[amunhotep]

another setback for india........

with the amur 1650 SSK out of contention for the fresh tender of six more diesel ssks, it seems as if PN subs will rule the arabian sea for some time to come

 

[ejaz007]

Most of the defense purchase programs are funded separately and are approved based on the strategic situation.

JF-17 program and Frigate purchase shall not be affected no matter what the economic situation is. Funds have already been approved. As far as F-16 deal is concerned at the moment it is stuck in the US congress and if cleared would go ahead. The submarine program might be delayed for a year or so.

Remember when Pakistan signed Agosta deal its economic situation was even bad then present.

 

[Contrarian]

You also have to remember that at that time, Pakistan was not committed to other expensive programs as well. The economy is slipping, investor confidence going down, though there are cases of investment, they are few and far between and then most are Arab investments.

I dont think the deal will be signed soon for the subs anyways, if they do, they wont cross 3 at max.