After Saudi-Iran, China wants to displace America. But won’t be ‘policeman of the world’

[beijingwalker]

'The US reign of the Middle East is ending, now it’s China’s turn'​

 

[Zsari]

It was not like today.

It was colonial commerce, one master and one slave.

The world of sovereign states and free world commerce is post WWII and thanks to USA.

You need to look beyond the colonial era as that is an aberration in human history, not the norm. And US is a participant in this colonial commerce under the dominance of Britian. There is no fundamental difference between Pax Americana and Pax Britannica.

 

[beijingwalker]

China has shattered the assumption of US dominance in the Middle East​

Nic Robertson, CNN
Published 12:21 AM EDT, Wed March 15, 2023

Dignitaries including Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (center) at the China-Arab States Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in December 2022.
Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images

CNN —
With a grandiose diplomatic flourish China brokered a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, in the process upending US calculus in the Gulf and beyond.

While the United States has angered its Gulf allies by apparently dithering over morality, curbing arms supplies and chilling relations, Saudi Arabia’s King-in-waiting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, has found a kindred spirit in China’s leader Xi Jinping.

Both are bold, assertive, willing to take risks and seemingly share unsated ambition.

Friday’s announcement that Riyadh and Tehran had renewed diplomatic ties was unexpected, but it shouldn’t have been. It is the logical accumulation of America’s diplomatic limitations and China’s growing quest to shape the world in its orbit.

Beijing’s claim that “China pursues no selfish interest whatsoever in the Middle East,” rings hollow. It buys more oil from Saudi Arabia than any other country in the world.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pictured in October 2021.
Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Reuters

Xi needs energy to grow China’s economy, ensure stability at home and fuel its rise as a global power.


His other main supplier, Russia, is at war, its supplies therefore in question. By de-escalating tensions between Saudi and Iran, Xi is not only shoring up his energy alternatives but, in a climate of growing tension with the US, also heading off potential curbs on his access to Gulf oil.

Xi’s motivation appears fueled by wider interests, but even so the US State Department welcomed the surprise move, spokesman Ned Price saying, “we support anything that would serve to deescalate tensions in the region, and potentially help to prevent conflict.”

Iran has buy-in because China has economic leverage. In 2021 the pair signed a trade deal reportedly worth up to $400 billion of Chinese investment over 25 years, in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil.

Tehran is isolated by international sanctions and Beijing is providing a glimmer of financial relief.

And, in the words of Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last year, there’s also the hope of more to come as he sees geopolitical power shifting east.

“Asia will become the center of knowledge, the center of economics, as well as the center of political power, and the center of military power,” Khamenei said.

Saudi has buy-in because war with Iran would wreck its economy and ruin MBS’s play for regional dominance. His bold visions for the country’s post fossil-fuel future and domestic stability depend on inwardly investing robust oil and gas revenues.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price pictured in July 2022.
Stefani Reynolds/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

US influence on the wane​

It may sound simple, but the fact the US couldn’t pull it off speaks to the complexities and nuance of everything that’s been brewing over the past two decades.

America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have burned through a good part of its diplomatic capital in the Middle East.

Many in the Gulf see the development of the war in Ukraine as an unnecessary and dangerous American adventure, and some of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s territorial claims over Ukraine not without merit.

Chinese and Saudi flags in Riyadh in December 2022.
Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images

What the global West sees as a fight for democratic values lacks resonance among the Gulf autocracies, and the conflict doesn’t consume them in the same way as it does leaders in European capitals.

Saudi Arabia, and MBS in particular, have become particularly frustrated with America’s flip-flop diplomacy: dialling back relations over the Crown Prince’s role in the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi (which MBS denies); then calling on him to cut oil production swiftly followed by requests to increase it.

These inconsistencies have led the Saudis to hew policy to their national interests and less to America’s needs.

During his visit to Saudi last July, US President Joe Biden said: “We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran.” It seems now that the others are walking away from him.

China steps up​

On Beijing’s part, China’s Gulf intervention signals its own needs, and the opportunity to act arrived in a single serving.
Xi helped himself because he can. The Chinese leader is a risk taker.

His abrupt ending of austere Covid-19 pandemic restrictions at home is just one example, but this is a more complex roll of the dice.

Mediation in the Middle East can be a poisoned chalice, but as big as the potential gains are for China, the wider implications for the regional, and even global order, are quantifiably bigger and will resonate for years.

US President Joe Biden (center-left) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (center) in Jeddah in July 2022.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Yet harbingers of this shake-up and the scale of its impact have been in plain sight for months. Xi’s high-profile, red-carpet reception in Riyadh last December for his first overseas visit after abandoning his domestic “zero-Covid” policy stirred the waters.

During that trip Saudi and Chinese officials signed scores of deals worth tens of billions of dollars.

China’s Foreign Ministry trumpeted Xi’s visit, paying particular attention to one particular infrastructure project: “China will deepen industrial and infrastructure cooperation with Saudi Arabia (and) advance the development of the China-Saudi Arabia (Jizan) Industrial Park.”

The Jizan project, part of China’s belt and road initiative, heralds huge investment around the ancient Red Sea port, currently Saudi’s third largest.


Opinion: What to make of China's role in the handshake heard round the world

Jizan lies close to the border with Yemen, the scene of a bloody civil war and proxy battle between Riyadh and Tehran since 2014, sparking what the United Nations has described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

Significantly since Xi’s visit, episodic attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Jizan have abated.

There are other effects too: the plans to upscale Jizan’s container handling puts Saudi in greater competition with the UAE’s container ports and potentially strains another regional rivalry, as MBS drives to become the dominant regional power, usurping UAE’s role as regional hub for global businesses.

Xi will have an interest seeing both Saudi Arabia and the UAE prosper, but Saudi is by far the bigger partner with higher potential global economic heft and, importantly, massive religious clout in the Islamic world.

Rivals share common ground on Iran policy​

Where the UAE and Saudi align strongly is eschewing direct conflict with Tehran.
A deadly drone attack in Abu Dhabi late last year was claimed by the Houthis, before the rebels quickly rescinded it. But no one publicly blamed the Houthis’ sponsors in Tehran.


'There is only so much patience one can have': Biden appears to back off vow to punish Saudi Arabia

A once shaky ceasefire in Yemen now also seems to be moving toward peace talks, perhaps yet another indication of the potential of China’s influence in the region.

Beijing is acutely aware of what a continued war over the Persian Gulf could cost its commercial interests – another reason why a Saudi/Iran rapprochement makes sense to Xi.
Iran blames Saudi for stoking the massive street protests through its towns and cities since September.

Saudi denies that accusation, but when Iran moved drones and long-range missiles close to its Gulf coast and Saudi, Riyadh called on its friends to ask Tehran to de-escalate. Russia and China did, the threat dissipated.

Questions remain over nuclear weapons​

Tehran, despite US diplomatic efforts, is also closing in on nuclear weapons capability and Saudi’s MBS is on record saying he’ll ensure parity, “if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”

Late last week US officials said Saudi was seeking US security guarantees and help developing a civilian nuclear program as part of a deal to normalize relations with Israel, an avowed enemy of Iran’s Ayatollahs.

Indeed, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel late January, concerned over a rising Palestinian death toll in a violent year in the region, potential settlement expansions and controversial changes to Israel’s judiciary Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to Blinken about “expanding the circle of peace,” and improving relations with Arab neighbours, including Saudi Arabia.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2021.
Haim Zach/Government Press Office/Getty Images

But as Saudi seems to shift closer to Tehran, Netanyahu’s mission just got harder. While both Saudi and Israel strongly oppose a nuclear-armed Iran, only Netanyahu seems ready to confront Tehran.

“My policy is to do everything within Israel’s power to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,” the Israeli leader told Blinken.

Riyadh favors diplomacy. As recently as last week the Saudi foreign minister said: “It’s absolutely critical … that we find and an alternative pathway to ensuring an (Iranian) civilian nuclear program.”

By improving ties with Tehran, he said, “we can make it quite clear to the Iranians that this is not just a concerns of distant countries but it’s also a concern of its neighbors.”
For years this is what America did, such as brokering the Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA, in 2015.

Xi backed that deal, the Saudis didn’t want it, Iran never trusted it, Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump’s withdrawal confirmed Iran’s fears and sealed its fate, despite the ongoing proximity talks to get American diplomats seated at the table again.



5 key takeaways from Xi's trip to Saudi Arabia

Iran has raced ahead in the meantime, massively over-running the bounds of the JCPOA limits on uranium enrichment and producing almost weapons-grade material.
What’s worse for Washington is that Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal legacy tainted international perceptions of US commitment, continuity and diplomacy. All these circumstances perhaps signaled to Xi that his time to seize the lead on global diplomacy was coming.

Yet the Chinese leader seems to accept what Netanyahu won’t and what US diplomacy is unable to prevent: that sooner, rather than later, Iran will have a nuclear weapon. As such, Xi may be fostering Saudi-Iran rapprochement as a hedge against that day.

So Netanyahu looks increasingly isolated and the Israeli leader, already under huge domestic pressure from spiking tensions with Palestinians and huge Israeli protests over his proposed judicial reforms, now faces a massive re-think on regional security.

Pieces of regional puzzle shifting​

The working assumption of American diplomatic regional primacy is broken, and Netanyahu’s biggest ally is now not as hegemonic as he needs. But by how much is still far from clear.

It’s not a knockout, but a gut blow, to Washington. How Xi calculates the situation isn’t clear either. The US is not finished, far from it, but it is diminished, and both powers are coexisting in a different way now.

Earlier this month, the Chinese leader made unusually direct comments accusing the US of leading a campaign against China and causing serious domestic woes.


Iran and Saudi Arabia signal the start of a new era, with China front and center

“Western countries led by the United States have contained and suppressed us in an all-round way, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our development,” Xi told a group of government advisers representing private businesses on the sidelines of an annual legislative meeting in Beijing.

Meanwhile, Biden has defined the future US-China relationship as “competition not confrontation,” and he has built his foreign policy around the tenets of standing up for democracy.
It is striking that neither Xi, nor Khamenei, nor MBS are troubled by the moral dilemmas that circumscribe Biden. This is the big challenge the US president warned about, and now it’s here. An alternative world order, irrespective of what happens in Ukraine.

China has shattered the assumption of US dominance in the Middle East | CNN

With a grandiose diplomatic flourish China brokered a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, in the process upending US calculus in the Gulf and beyond.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Baburfromsarmarkand]

I think India wants to be policeman of the world, if it becomes a super power. Chinese have always been focused on their own affairs, hence the longevity of the civilization. But having two superpowers next to each other would be very dangerous.

 

[nahtanbob]

???

tell us how many Pakistanis emigrate to North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti, Panama, Syria, Iraq, Libya

Complete Non-Interference with other nations...

Tell us whether you want a friend who tells that you are on the wrong path or one who pretends everything is fine

 

[Libexer]

Tell us whether you want a friend who tells that you are on the wrong path or one who pretends everything is fine

Imagine the arrogance it takes to be convinced one is "right" all the time. Especially someone who made money in the slave trader and was convicted of genocide but is "reformed" now because he claims to have found "jesus".

Who would want a "friend" like that ?

People seek friends who are down to earth and will help you no matter what.

 

[BHAN85]

You need to look beyond the colonial era as that is an aberration in human history, not the norm. And US is a participant in this colonial commerce under the dominance of Britian. There is no fundamental difference between Pax Americana and Pax Britannica.

You're denying a obvious thing.

Last decades of world commerce, specially since 1945, and more specially since 1970s, it a new thing in mankind history and it was USA who develop the framework of that.

China is taking advantage of USA framework of global commerce like nobody else currently.

 

[nahtanbob]

Imagine the arrogance it takes to be convinced one is "right" all the time. Especially someone who made money in the slave trader and was convicted of genocide but is "reformed" now because he claims to have found "jesus".

Who would want a "friend" like that ?

People seek friends who are down to earth and will help you no matter what.

try getting a penny from the Chinese for free

 

[Libexer]

try getting a penny from the Chinese for free

There is no such thing as a free lunch in the US.

That only exist in India.

You're denying a obvious thing.

Last decades of world commerce, specially since 1945, and more specially since 1970s, it a new thing in mankind history and it was USA who develop the framework of that.

China is taking advantage of USA framework of global commerce like nobody else currently.

LOL at your understanding of history.

It was the existence of world commerce which let to the "discovery" of the North and South America and Australia.

All US did was impose the USD as a global currency by insisting all purchase of Oil took place in that. Those who didn't like Iran, Venezuela and Russia was declared "rogue" nations a.k.a "axis of evil".

China did take advantage of US greed and global ambition by playing along till it got strong enough to show the finger to the US. But it took TWO to play that game.

 

[nahtanbob]

There is no such thing as a free lunch in the US..

a lot of school kids get a free lunch

 

[Libexer]

a lot of school kids get a free lunch

28 Billion $ for free lunch.

1.6 Trillion $ as Student education debt.

 

[Zsari]

You're denying a obvious thing.

Last decades of world commerce, specially since 1945, and more specially since 1970s, it a new thing in mankind history and it was USA who develop the framework of that.

China is taking advantage of USA framework of global commerce like nobody else currently.

What framework? Global commerce will be there regardless of whether US is or will be. It's just a matter of development and consumerism, just as peace after WWII is due to MAD, not because of, but rather inspite of the endless unrest, conflicts and wars orchestrated by the US all over the world.

 

[BHAN85]

What framework? Global commerce will be there regardless of whether US is or will be. It's just a matter of development and consumerism, just as peace after WWII is due to MAD, not because of, but rather inspite of the endless unrest, conflicts and wars orchestrated by the US all over the world.

You need a policeman, a order, to sustain world commerce.

In the same way that you need a state inside a country to allow people commerce between each other, without robberies neither violence.

USA is a state of states (in the sense of states of the world).

And that actor is needed to allow world commerce.

if someday USA disappears, another superpower must occupy that power void, or e.g. pirates will fk up Chinese cargo ships .

And you need a reliable currency to allow world commerce, that currency is USD, if USD disappear another currency with same stability must replace it or commerce will fk up.

We know what happens in countries with weak currency, when people get tired and doesnt do commerce because they feel robbed when inflation destroy their savings.

 

[Zsari]

You need a policeman, a order, to sustain world commerce.

In the same way that you need a state inside a country to allow people commerce between each other, without robberies neither violence.

USA is a state of states (in the sense of states of the world).

And that actor is needed to allow world commerce.

if someday USA disappears, another superpower must occupy that power void, or e.g. pirates will fk up Chinese cargo ships .

And you need a reliable currency to allow world commerce, that currency is USD, if USD disappear another currency with same stability must replace it or commerce will fk up.

We know what happens in countries with weak currency, when people get tired and doesnt do commerce because they feel robbed when inflation destroy their savings.

As I've said already, humans have been trading with each other since the dawn of civilization before there was police, before there was law, and before there was even currency. So no, you don't need any of that to conduct trade as trade is in the mutual interest of both sides.

China and most nations can more than defend their trade routes against some pirates. What's far worse than pirates are self-appointed policeman acting as pirates.

 

[BHAN85]

As I've said already, humans have been trading with each other since the dawn of civilization before there was police, before there was law, and before there was even currency. So no, you don't need any of that to conduct trade as trade is in the mutual interest of both sides.

China and most nations can more than defend their trade routes against some pirates. What's far worse than pirates are self-appointed policeman acting as pirates.

I guess you must worship anarchist ideology.

Then you dont need Chinese state to allow commerce between Chinese people.

Using your own arguments : Humans have been trading each other a lot before than states born, so states are not needed, Chinese state is not needed, each merchant can defend his business with his own gun, and CCP is much less needed .

A world superpower is needed to allow world commerce between different states, in the same way that a normal state is needed to allow commerce between people of same country.