niaz
PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
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There are so many comments on my post that I have decided to reply to all the honorable members’ queries in one go.
Chahbahar, like Gwadar, is a very old port. Since this is the only port of Iran outside of the Hormuz Straits, the Shah of Iran started its development in 1970 and established a naval & Airbase. After the revolution, nearly all of the Shah’s projects were put on the back burner also the foreign companies’ interest in the financing of these projects ran away.
It was primarily because of Pakistan’s continued denial of the Afghan transit trade via the Wagah route that induced India to approach Iran to exploit the alternate route.
President Khatami of Iran was invited as the Chief Guest on the Indian Republic Day, 26Th January 2003. India – Iran agreement to jointly develop the Chahbahar port was signed on the same occasion. The project was put on the shelf because USA sanctions on Iran came into force soon after.
In my view, two things gave a push to this project. First was the Pakistan- Afghan transit trade agreement of 2010 which allowed the Afghan goods to be exported to India. However, the goods needed to be offloaded at Torkham and then carried to the border on Pakistani trucks offloaded again at Wagah and reloaded to the Indian trucks. Something that irked Afghanistan as well as India.
The second was the 2013 agreement between Pakistan & China for the Economic Corridor via Gwadar. This was a major coup for China and of great concern to India as well as the USA. IMO, it was at the prompting by the USA that India finally decided to pursue the alternate route project and in 2014 sanctioned an initial $85-milion was the development of Chahbahar port.
By 2016 sanctions against Iran were being lifted and Indian investment was increased to $500-million. An additional sum of $1.6-billion was earmarked for the 650 Km rail –link from Chahbahar to Zahedan. Since work on the Zaranj- Dilaram Road was already in progress as part of the Indian $750-million investment package to Afghanistan; when completed, it would provide Afghanistan & the Central Asian countries another trade route to Africa & the Far East.
While Donald Trump had re-imposed sanctions on Iran, the Chahbahar project was given an exemption from the Iran sanctions indicate the extent Trump is willing to go to outmaneuver China! However, it is because of the ‘Re-imposed’ sanctions that forced Iran’s regime to turn to the Chinese for help and we know what followed.
It is clear that even though initially Indians were interested in Chahbahar to side-line Pakistan, Donald Trump coming to power in the USA and the Chinese Belt & Road Initiative are the main factors that would make or break the Indian designs.
There are many things that Pakistan can do to pacify or at least cool to some extent the hostility from our eastern neighbors, provided there is a political will to do it. For example:
- Allow Indian civil aircrafts a restricted route through Pakistani air space.
- Stop the ‘tit for tat’ reactions to the Indian minister’s / military commander’s statements and only respond to the official statements.
- Allow Afghanistan & the Central Asian states transit trade with India and also allow Indian goods transit to Afghanistan & Central Asian albeit with a reasonable transit fee.
- Increase people to people contacts.
- Allow India – Pakistan trade as long as it remains in balance.
In my humble opinion, none of this likely to damage Pakistan’s interest in any way. On the contrary, it would help to melt the ‘Ice’ albeit slowly.
Admittedly, you need a strong political will & backing of the establishment before any of the steps mentioned above can be taken. But then would any rational cool-headed person prefer that current India/Pakistan tensions continue ad infintim?
Another big question however remains, would the chauvinists and religious bigots on both sides of the border also agree because they thrive on hatred?
Chahbahar, like Gwadar, is a very old port. Since this is the only port of Iran outside of the Hormuz Straits, the Shah of Iran started its development in 1970 and established a naval & Airbase. After the revolution, nearly all of the Shah’s projects were put on the back burner also the foreign companies’ interest in the financing of these projects ran away.
It was primarily because of Pakistan’s continued denial of the Afghan transit trade via the Wagah route that induced India to approach Iran to exploit the alternate route.
President Khatami of Iran was invited as the Chief Guest on the Indian Republic Day, 26Th January 2003. India – Iran agreement to jointly develop the Chahbahar port was signed on the same occasion. The project was put on the shelf because USA sanctions on Iran came into force soon after.
In my view, two things gave a push to this project. First was the Pakistan- Afghan transit trade agreement of 2010 which allowed the Afghan goods to be exported to India. However, the goods needed to be offloaded at Torkham and then carried to the border on Pakistani trucks offloaded again at Wagah and reloaded to the Indian trucks. Something that irked Afghanistan as well as India.
The second was the 2013 agreement between Pakistan & China for the Economic Corridor via Gwadar. This was a major coup for China and of great concern to India as well as the USA. IMO, it was at the prompting by the USA that India finally decided to pursue the alternate route project and in 2014 sanctioned an initial $85-milion was the development of Chahbahar port.
By 2016 sanctions against Iran were being lifted and Indian investment was increased to $500-million. An additional sum of $1.6-billion was earmarked for the 650 Km rail –link from Chahbahar to Zahedan. Since work on the Zaranj- Dilaram Road was already in progress as part of the Indian $750-million investment package to Afghanistan; when completed, it would provide Afghanistan & the Central Asian countries another trade route to Africa & the Far East.
While Donald Trump had re-imposed sanctions on Iran, the Chahbahar project was given an exemption from the Iran sanctions indicate the extent Trump is willing to go to outmaneuver China! However, it is because of the ‘Re-imposed’ sanctions that forced Iran’s regime to turn to the Chinese for help and we know what followed.
It is clear that even though initially Indians were interested in Chahbahar to side-line Pakistan, Donald Trump coming to power in the USA and the Chinese Belt & Road Initiative are the main factors that would make or break the Indian designs.
There are many things that Pakistan can do to pacify or at least cool to some extent the hostility from our eastern neighbors, provided there is a political will to do it. For example:
- Allow Indian civil aircrafts a restricted route through Pakistani air space.
- Stop the ‘tit for tat’ reactions to the Indian minister’s / military commander’s statements and only respond to the official statements.
- Allow Afghanistan & the Central Asian states transit trade with India and also allow Indian goods transit to Afghanistan & Central Asian albeit with a reasonable transit fee.
- Increase people to people contacts.
- Allow India – Pakistan trade as long as it remains in balance.
In my humble opinion, none of this likely to damage Pakistan’s interest in any way. On the contrary, it would help to melt the ‘Ice’ albeit slowly.
Admittedly, you need a strong political will & backing of the establishment before any of the steps mentioned above can be taken. But then would any rational cool-headed person prefer that current India/Pakistan tensions continue ad infintim?
Another big question however remains, would the chauvinists and religious bigots on both sides of the border also agree because they thrive on hatred?
