After Peshawar: Reassessing the terror threat

[Pulsar]

The Peshawar school carnage has once again exposed the persisting gaps and vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s security infrastructure, which terrorists have time and again exploited quite easily.

The brutal attack also highlights persisting threats to the internal security of the country, which have become complex and extensive over the years.

The terrorists have certainly been put on the back foot by the ongoing military operations in North Waziristan and Khyber agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, but their operational capabilities are still intact, mainly because of two factors:

First: The relocation of most of the militants’ infrastructure to the other side of the Pak-Afghan border.

Second: The presence of their support networks inside Pakistan.

Now that the political leadership has agreed to develop a plan of action to deal with the menace, there is a need to reassess the capabilities of the terrorists.

Militants competing for the 'terror trophy'

Both Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al Qaeda have claimed responsibility of the attack in Peshawar. Although an operational cooperation between the two cannot be overruled, there is a strong likelihood that the TTP has managed this attack in conjunction with its Central Asian militant associates.

A review of some high-profile attacks suggests that four major militant formations act at different phases to carry out these attacks:

• Al Qaeda planned and strategised
  
  
• TTP provided logistical support
  
  
• Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) served as operational core
  
  
• Some local militant group facilitated such attacks on ground
  

The Peshawar school attack has been launched when TTP and other local and international groups are passing through certain transformations and internal crises. The Islamic State’s (IS) inspiration has widened their ideological and operational spectrum.

Dissatisfied commanders are challenging their leadership and forming their own groups. Internal infighting among militants has also initiated a competition between the different groups and factions not only to prove leadership skills but also operational capabilities.

Jamaatul Ahrar, a group that recently splintered away from TTP on similar grounds, has managed a series of attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Fata and claimed responsibility for the suicide attack at Wagah border, Lahore.

These attacks certainly put pressure on the TTP led by Mullah Fazlullah in terms of how to remain relevant in the changing militant landscape of Pakistan.

At present, the TTP has its bases in Kunar, Nuristan and Khost provinces of Afghanistan and still has strong nexus with Central Asian militants and Al Qaeda. There is a strong probability that TTP took the lead in the Peshawar school attack in collaboration with its Central Asian allies.

The tactics employed in this attack were not new.

Initial reports suggest that the terrorists were in military uniforms and carried heavy weaponry, suicide vests and sufficient food; indicating they had planned to prolong the operation as they had managed to do in their attacks on the Mehran airbase in Karachi and the Jinnah International Airport.

The surprising element this time was their selection of the target — a soft civilian target.

After the Mina Bazaar attack in Peshawar, a debate over the selection of civilian targets had sprung up among the terrorists, but the attack on the school shows that terrorists can cross all limits when they have reached a certain stage of frustration.

The attack has therefore increased the degree of vulnerability of civilian and civilian-cum-military interests across the country.

A replication of, or increase in such attacks in the near future cannot be ruled out. Though managing large-scale attacks is not an easy task for the terrorists, growing competition among these groups has increased the level of threat.

Strategies, mechanisms, narratives — all messed up

How can such attacks be averted?

Problems and gaps in state responses are well-known, and issues of lack of coordination among security and intelligence institutions are no secret.

There is a need to integrate the sporadic and scattered responses into a comprehensive counter-terrorism or national security policy.

Many ideological, political and operational ambiguities still persist in the understanding of issues of religious extremism and militancy which undermine the threat perception of the security apparatus. Coordination and trust is still absent among various intelligence and law enforcement departments, and the need for processing of data and analysis of information remains largely ignored.

Militants gain strength from the fragmentation and confusion over the war on terror among the security, political and civil society leadership in Pakistan.

The state and the political leadership have to realise that the real strength of most terrorist groups has been their ability to sell their cause. Through their propaganda strategies, they have tried to counterbalance the disparity between their capabilities and those of the security forces.

Nonetheless, the existing diverse militant infrastructure in the country needs some broader, strategic-level approaches to counter the threat.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1151616/after-peshawar-reassessing-the-terror-threat


Bottom line: As long as the differentiation between the good and bad terrorists continues, terrorism in Pakistan will never end.

 

[Imran Khan]

police - army - FC - civil inteligence - military intelligence -IB- ISI police intelligence all of them failed . but these maroons will never admit it they will just again make drama of bla bla and then go to sleep .

here is what called honor
French police chief committed suicide after Charlie Hebdo attack - Telegraph

 

[Tipu7]

let investigation finish before final decision. I believe same parties are involved in BachaKhan University attack which were involved in APS attack.

1: TTP Militants as front line attackers.
2: Intelligence and planning provided by Hostile Intelligence agencies
3: Funds launched by hostile intelligence agencies distributed by local assets.


https://www.youtube.com/watch…
http://dailymailnews.com/…/india-returns-to-threatening-mo…/

 

[Imran Khan]

let investigation finish before final decision. I believe same parties are involved in BachaKhan University attack which were involved in APS attack.

1: TTP Militants as front line attackers.
2: Intelligence and planning provided by Hostile Intelligence agencies
3: Funds launched by spy hostile intelligence agencies distributed by local assets
4: Date, location, target all are planned some where else. .

https://www.youtube.com/watch…
http://dailymailnews.com/…/india-returns-to-threatening-mo…/



View attachment 288440

stop all terrorist activites inside pakistan first . all means all kashmiri terrorists also . then talk to india afghanistan .

 

[Tipu7]

police - army - FC - civil inteligence - military intelligence -IB- ISI police intelligence all of them failed . but these maroons will never admit it they will just again make drama of bla bla and then go to sleep .

here is what called honor
French police chief committed suicide after Charlie Hebdo attack - Telegraph

At your ''logic''................

stop all terrorist activites inside pakistan first . all means all kashmiri terrorists also . then talk to india afghanistan .

lol..................
Kashmiri ''terrorists''???

What type of ''terror'' they are spreading?

Demanding freedom from oppressor?

Taking revenge of their mothers being killed, sisters being raped?
What will you do if you were in their place?
Clapping and cheering for them? or revenging them with weapon in your hand?

 

[mpk1988]

police - army - FC - civil inteligence - military intelligence -IB- ISI police intelligence all of them failed . but these maroons will never admit it they will just again make drama of bla bla and then go to sleep .

here is what called honor
French police chief committed suicide after Charlie Hebdo attack - Telegraph

The thing is it is natural to get relaxed after a period of lull. Nobody wants to accept the deep underlying problem and just want to wipe of nameless faces of TTP and others. That brings instant praise, proof etc.

The harder way is complete co-operation between civilian, military and social leadership to eliminate all this from the grassroots. From what I hear South Punjab is now becoming a haven for extremism. In-fact I remember you posting about another Lal-Masjid in the making. How is it possible that all this still goes on???

Remove every one of these mouth-pieces, close down the madrassas, cut down the hawala network and external funding for religious activities. In all provinces: Punjab, Sindh, KPK, Balochistan, GB and Azad Kashmir too. Then put modern schools, teach secularism and import teachers, professionals etc from all over the world into pockets of Pakistan. Traditional - culture etc bakte rahoge toh kuch nhi hoga.

 

[Imran Khan]

At your ''logic''................
View attachment 288448


lol..................
Kashmiri ''terrorists''???

What type of ''terror'' they are spreading?

Demanding freedom from oppressor?

Taking revenge of their mothers being killed, sisters being raped?
What will you do if you were in their place?
Clapping and cheering for them? or revenging them with weapon in your hand?

kashmiris take revange from india and india take from pakistan now its kashmiri revenge which pakistan have to pay . uuntil kashmiris terrorists will never stop bleeding india pakistan will keep bleeding very simple

 

[Yaduveer]

Obama was not fool when he said that Pakistan would have instability for long time to come.

Lets not point finger at each other and sit across table and talk how to eliminate terrorism from entire South Asia.

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

The Peshawar school carnage has once again exposed the persisting gaps and vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s security infrastructure, which terrorists have time and again exploited quite easily.

The brutal attack also highlights persisting threats to the internal security of the country, which have become complex and extensive over the years.

The terrorists have certainly been put on the back foot by the ongoing military operations in North Waziristan and Khyber agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, but their operational capabilities are still intact, mainly because of two factors:

First: The relocation of most of the militants’ infrastructure to the other side of the Pak-Afghan border.

Second: The presence of their support networks inside Pakistan.

Now that the political leadership has agreed to develop a plan of action to deal with the menace, there is a need to reassess the capabilities of the terrorists.

Militants competing for the 'terror trophy'

Both Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al Qaeda have claimed responsibility of the attack in Peshawar. Although an operational cooperation between the two cannot be overruled, there is a strong likelihood that the TTP has managed this attack in conjunction with its Central Asian militant associates.

A review of some high-profile attacks suggests that four major militant formations act at different phases to carry out these attacks:

• 
  
  
  • Al Qaeda planned and strategised
  • TTP provided logistical support
  • Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) served as operational core
  • Some local militant group facilitated such attacks on ground

The Peshawar school attack has been launched when TTP and other local and international groups are passing through certain transformations and internal crises. The Islamic State’s (IS) inspiration has widened their ideological and operational spectrum.

Dissatisfied commanders are challenging their leadership and forming their own groups. Internal infighting among militants has also initiated a competition between the different groups and factions not only to prove leadership skills but also operational capabilities.

Jamaatul Ahrar, a group that recently splintered away from TTP on similar grounds, has managed a series of attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Fata and claimed responsibility for the suicide attack at Wagah border, Lahore.

These attacks certainly put pressure on the TTP led by Mullah Fazlullah in terms of how to remain relevant in the changing militant landscape of Pakistan.

At present, the TTP has its bases in Kunar, Nuristan and Khost provinces of Afghanistan and still has strong nexus with Central Asian militants and Al Qaeda. There is a strong probability that TTP took the lead in the Peshawar school attack in collaboration with its Central Asian allies.

The tactics employed in this attack were not new.

Initial reports suggest that the terrorists were in military uniforms and carried heavy weaponry, suicide vests and sufficient food; indicating they had planned to prolong the operation as they had managed to do in their attacks on the Mehran airbase in Karachi and the Jinnah International Airport.

The surprising element this time was their selection of the target — a soft civilian target.

After the Mina Bazaar attack in Peshawar, a debate over the selection of civilian targets had sprung up among the terrorists, but the attack on the school shows that terrorists can cross all limits when they have reached a certain stage of frustration.

The attack has therefore increased the degree of vulnerability of civilian and civilian-cum-military interests across the country.

A replication of, or increase in such attacks in the near future cannot be ruled out. Though managing large-scale attacks is not an easy task for the terrorists, growing competition among these groups has increased the level of threat.

Strategies, mechanisms, narratives — all messed up

How can such attacks be averted?

Problems and gaps in state responses are well-known, and issues of lack of coordination among security and intelligence institutions are no secret.

There is a need to integrate the sporadic and scattered responses into a comprehensive counter-terrorism or national security policy.

Many ideological, political and operational ambiguities still persist in the understanding of issues of religious extremism and militancy which undermine the threat perception of the security apparatus. Coordination and trust is still absent among various intelligence and law enforcement departments, and the need for processing of data and analysis of information remains largely ignored.

Militants gain strength from the fragmentation and confusion over the war on terror among the security, political and civil society leadership in Pakistan.

The state and the political leadership have to realise that the real strength of most terrorist groups has been their ability to sell their cause. Through their propaganda strategies, they have tried to counterbalance the disparity between their capabilities and those of the security forces.

Nonetheless, the existing diverse militant infrastructure in the country needs some broader, strategic-level approaches to counter the threat.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1151616/after-peshawar-reassessing-the-terror-threat


Bottom line: As long as the differentiation between the good and bad terrorists continues, terrorism in Pakistan will never end.

They never expected an attack on a school. If the TTP attack a shop, does that mean intelligence and security forces have failed? There are shootouts in US schools all the time that have claimed much more lives than Peshawar.

 

[Kakaspai]

stop all terrorist activites inside pakistan first . all means all kashmiri terrorists also . then talk to india afghanistan .

By kashmiri terrorist do you mean Indian Army ?

 

[Imran Khan]

By kashmiri terrorist do you mean Indian Army ?

nope kashmiri terrorists means kashmiris whom fighting for useless issue and pakistanis whom went kashmir to reach jannat in short cut

 

[Kakaspai]

nope kashmiri terrorists means kashmiris whom fighting for useless issue and pakistanis whom went kashmir to reach jannat in short cut

In that case Quiad i Azam and all those leaders also fought for a useless issue.Fighting for independence is not a useless issue.Would you say Palestine is fighting for a useless issue

 

[Strigon]

In that case Quiad i Azam and all those leaders also fought for a useless issue.Fighting for independence is not a useless issue.Would you say Palestine is fighting for a useless issue

I think the explanation provided was vague. Obviously Pakistan doesn't control kashmiri militants, they do what they want and when they do launch attacks on India which could be one of the thousand reasons, maybe a person's family member was killed or raped or anything else. In that moment that person isnt going to think much what his actions will bring about, his urge for revenge might be satiated but then that revenge gives India a chance to inflict pain to people in pakistan who had nothing to do with this whole drama which is what described as a useless issue. It would be useless for Pakistanis and even Kashmirs but might be life's goal for that one person.

If he means kashmir as a whole a useless agenda then he can take a shortcut to hell. PA is in their area and not moving out anytime soon so no need to get worked up on fairy tale predictions.


Solution to all this problem is really very simple, completely abiding by all points laid out in NAP with no soft corner for anyone not even politicians who are most scared of this plan and many are trying their best to pass laws to counter items in order to save their skin. Implementation is difficult which people need to be serious about it, make a case on its implementation and see it take its course. Expecting out criminal leaders to get this done is like asking a snake not to bite

 

[Kakaspai]

Solution to all this problem is really very simple, completely abiding by all points laid out in NAP with no soft corner for anyone not even politicians who are most scared of this plan and many are trying their best to pass laws to counter items in order to save their skin. Implementation is difficult which people need to be serious about it, make a case on its implementation and see it take its course. Expecting out criminal leaders to get this done is like asking a snake not to bite

Our System is so weak it can be defeated easily.Where a Military court decision can be challenged in a civil court.If this was gonna happen why did we even created Military courts.Facts and proofs are sitting on the table against dr Asim but he is innocent and i am sure he will get a clean chit because of our weak system

 

[illusion8]

let investigation finish before final decision. I believe same parties are involved in BachaKhan University attack which were involved in APS attack.

1: TTP Militants as front line attackers.
2: Intelligence and planning provided by Hostile Intelligence agencies
3: Funds launched by hostile intelligence agencies distributed by local assets.


https://www.youtube.com/watch…
http://dailymailnews.com/…/india-returns-to-threatening-mo…/



View attachment 288440

There is something called the jihad factory, every country with a sizeable Muslim population has it..If you research it - you will find that Pakistan was the pioneers in it and it's very much alive and kicking inside Pakistan's religious schools. Funded by the sheikhs, manned by the thousands of brainwashed, fuelled by the extreme ideologies of Islamism.