Bengal71
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That was not my question.
After ASML accused China of developing the lithography machine, HIT lithography Machine's ultra-precision laser interferometer achieved another breakt
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That was not my question.
Tigers
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China can produce 7nm node using DUV but not one that is commercially profitable or can be mass produced. The answer is wait for EUV which is a very complex tech.
S10
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It's not profitable, but is available if China requires some advanced chips for its next generation weapons or supercomputers in a pinch.
Hard to say for a fact, so I will give you a range instead.
Anywhere from 3 to 10 years
Yousafzai_M
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I am ignorat of the technological things you guys are talking about but can someone answer these 2 questions for me in English.
1- Can China now produce the chips that US banned the sale of? including from that Dutch company?
2 - Can China do the same good as Taiwan?
1- Can China now produce the chips that US banned the sale of? including from that Dutch company?
2 - Can China do the same good as Taiwan?
S10
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1. Yes and no. China can produce up to 7nm chips with existing ASML equipment, but companies like Huawei can no longer obtain more advanced chips than that. Furthermore, US has banned ASML from selling further DUV machines to China which greatly limits quantity China can make 7nm and 14nm chips.
2. No, but Taiwan is completely dependent on ASML while China at least has some domestic lithography capable of producing mass market chips (28nm and up).
gambit
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I will answer a major issue that others do not know, but for question 2: No.
For question 1, technically speaking, China can produce 'chips' whose devices are as small (nanometer) as what Taiwan, SKR, JPN, EUR, and US produces, even using domestic tools. The issue is YIELD PER WAFER.
Managing Wafer Yield Across Semiconductor Fabrication
Semiconductor profitability is related to the percent of useful die per wafer. Learn how to monitor and optimize yield within and across all fab operations.
Wafer yield, or the percentage of accepted die per wafer, is a critical metric for semiconductor operations. All fab processes must ramp to steadily create consistent wafers with profitable average yield. This yield is determined during wafer test and sort when each die is assigned to a specific scrap or product bin based on parametric data.
Let us say the market standard is 14 nm (nanometer) and everyone can achieve that scaling.
Company A has a per wafer yield of %95+. Company B has a per wafer yield of max %85. This means that A can sell more functional chips than B on a per wafer basis. Of those %95 and %85 chips, some are call 'Prime' and some are downgraded to Good.
But here is the real catch...That does not mean that B can sell those %85 chips. No one will buy them. That is, no Tier 1 or Tier 2 customers, and few Tier 3 will buy.
Who are Tier One customers? Sony, Apple, IBM, NASA, GM, and the likes. They will pay premium for the Prime chips that came off those %95+ wafers. They will not settle for less. They will sign contracts that lasts for several yrs.
Who are Tier Two customers? ADATA, Kingston, or Sandisk and the likes. They will also pay premium for the Prime chips if there are any leftover, and they will buy all the Good chips.
Who are Tier Three customers? Someone like Joe Schmoe Memory Emporium running out of a garage. The names are not known. They will buy all the lower grades chips wherever they can get them and install them into home appliances, talking toys, and so on. Tier Three customers will buy as much lower grades chips as they can from Company A, then if they have to, they go to B.
You cannot afford to lose Tier One/Two customers. You will do whatever you can to keep that %95+ per wafer yield.
As long as you produce only maximum of %85 per wafer yield, you WILL lost money. You may have a lot of Prime chips in that %85 but because no Tier 1/2 will buy them, you have no choice but to sell them at cost or loss. Tier 3 customers know they have you by the balls. Either you sell whatever you have at cost or loss, or you stockpile your products for nothing.
The per-wafer-yield is the best indicator of technology sophistication and manufacturing refinement. The higher the yield, the more you can command premium prices in both contract and open (no contract) markets, and on the open market, there will be bidding wars for your %95+ Prime/Good chips.
Using these wafer maps below as example...
If a company consistently produced that inconsistent per wafer yield, that company will go out of business or be bought out by a competitor.
Now back to China...
If Chinese semicon companies produces lower per wafer yield using domestic tools, they will lose the international market. The Chinese government could force Chinese electronics companies to buy Chinese semicon products but that is not a viable marketing tool.
If industry standard moved to 10 nm but Chinese semicon companies are stuck at 14 nm, even with %95+ per wafer yield, they will lose money. Other companies make %95+ at 10 nm. Why should Tier 1 and 2 customers buy products made with 14 nm technology? This problem is where Chinese semicon companies are at right now. Before the US imposed tech ban, Chinese semicon companies were barely keeping up with the Taiwanese, SKReans, the JPNese, and US. Now with the tech ban, they are forced to regress to older tools that will give them %95+ per wafer yield at higher nanometer scales or lower than %90 at the same nanometer scale.
Chinese semicon companies are at:
10 nm = less than %90 per wafer yield
14 nm = %95+ per wafer yield
Except the market want 10 nm and everyone else are making %95+ per wafer yield. The numbers I used are only to give you a high level understanding of the issue.
Han Patriot
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The moment geniuses like you say can produce chips at the nanometer level, i knew you are....I will answer a major issue that others do not know, but for question 2: No.
For question 1, technically speaking, China can produce 'chips' whose devices are as small (nanometer) as what Taiwan, SKR, JPN, EUR, and US produces, even using domestic tools. The issue is YIELD PER WAFER.
Managing Wafer Yield Across Semiconductor Fabrication
Semiconductor profitability is related to the percent of useful die per wafer. Learn how to monitor and optimize yield within and across all fab operations.www.ni.com
Wafer yield, or the percentage of accepted die per wafer, is a critical metric for semiconductor operations. All fab processes must ramp to steadily create consistent wafers with profitable average yield. This yield is determined during wafer test and sort when each die is assigned to a specific scrap or product bin based on parametric data.
Let us say the market standard is 14 nm (nanometer) and everyone can achieve that scaling.
Company A has a per wafer yield of %95+. Company B has a per wafer yield of max %85. This means that A can sell more functional chips than B on a per wafer basis. Of those %95 and %85 chips, some are call 'Prime' and some are downgraded to Good.
But here is the real catch...That does not mean that B can sell those %85 chips. No one will buy them. That is, no Tier 1 or Tier 2 customers, and few Tier 3 will buy.
Who are Tier One customers? Sony, Apple, IBM, NASA, GM, and the likes. They will pay premium for the Prime chips that came off those %95+ wafers. They will not settle for less. They will sign contracts that lasts for several yrs.
Who are Tier Two customers? ADATA, Kingston, or Sandisk and the likes. They will also pay premium for the Prime chips if there are any leftover, and they will buy all the Good chips.
Who are Tier Three customers? Someone like Joe Schmoe Memory Emporium running out of a garage. The names are not known. They will buy all the lower grades chips wherever they can get them and install them into home appliances, talking toys, and so on. Tier Three customers will buy as much lower grades chips as they can from Company A, then if they have to, they go to B.
You cannot afford to lose Tier One/Two customers. You will do whatever you can to keep that %95+ per wafer yield.
As long as you produce only maximum of %85 per wafer yield, you WILL lost money. You may have a lot of Prime chips in that %85 but because no Tier 1/2 will buy them, you have no choice but to sell them at cost or loss. Tier 3 customers know they have you by the balls. Either you sell whatever you have at cost or loss, or you stockpile your products for nothing.
The per-wafer-yield is the best indicator of technology sophistication and manufacturing refinement. The higher the yield, the more you can command premium prices in both contract and open (no contract) markets, and on the open market, there will be bidding wars for your %95+ Prime/Good chips.
Using these wafer maps below as example...
If a company consistently produced that inconsistent per wafer yield, that company will go out of business or be bought out by a competitor.
Now back to China...
If Chinese semicon companies produces lower per wafer yield using domestic tools, they will lose the international market. The Chinese government could force Chinese electronics companies to buy Chinese semicon products but that is not a viable marketing tool.
If industry standard moved to 10 nm but Chinese semicon companies are stuck at 14 nm, even with %95+ per wafer yield, they will lose money. Other companies make %95+ at 10 nm. Why should Tier 1 and 2 customers buy products made with 14 nm technology? This problem is where Chinese semicon companies are at right now. Before the US imposed tech ban, Chinese semicon companies were barely keeping up with the Taiwanese, SKReans, the JPNese, and US. Now with the tech ban, they are forced to regress to older tools that will give them %95+ per wafer yield at higher nanometer scales or lower than %90 at the same nanometer scale.
Chinese semicon companies are at:
10 nm = less than %90 per wafer yield
14 nm = %95+ per wafer yield
Except the market want 10 nm and everyone else are making %95+ per wafer yield. The numbers I used are only to give you a high level understanding of the issue.
gambit
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...That I know what I am talking about? Everything I said can be verified PUBLICLY. The fact that YOU can only post that lame reply...
No thanks, the usa a nation of propaganda and fake news, a nation that claim democracy and freedom yet politics dictate what apps you are allowed to use and if you go around it then insane fees and prison time awaits you.
I rather praise China at least they not lie and talk around the bush....
No thanks, the usa a nation of propaganda and fake news, a nation that claim democracy and freedom yet politics dictate what apps you are allowed to use and if you go around it then insane fees and prison time awaits you.
I rather praise China at least they not lie and talk around the bush....
Yousafzai_M
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I have no idea WTF is a Wafer or Yield but I got the point. Thanks for the detailed explanation.I will answer a major issue that others do not know, but for question 2: No.
For question 1, technically speaking, China can produce 'chips' whose devices are as small (nanometer) as what Taiwan, SKR, JPN, EUR, and US produces, even using domestic tools. The issue is YIELD PER WAFER.
Managing Wafer Yield Across Semiconductor Fabrication
Semiconductor profitability is related to the percent of useful die per wafer. Learn how to monitor and optimize yield within and across all fab operations.
Wafer yield, or the percentage of accepted die per wafer, is a critical metric for semiconductor operations. All fab processes must ramp to steadily create consistent wafers with profitable average yield. This yield is determined during wafer test and sort when each die is assigned to a specific scrap or product bin based on parametric data.
Let us say the market standard is 14 nm (nanometer) and everyone can achieve that scaling.
Company A has a per wafer yield of %95+. Company B has a per wafer yield of max %85. This means that A can sell more functional chips than B on a per wafer basis. Of those %95 and %85 chips, some are call 'Prime' and some are downgraded to Good.
But here is the real catch...That does not mean that B can sell those %85 chips. No one will buy them. That is, no Tier 1 or Tier 2 customers, and few Tier 3 will buy.
Who are Tier One customers? Sony, Apple, IBM, NASA, GM, and the likes. They will pay premium for the Prime chips that came off those %95+ wafers. They will not settle for less. They will sign contracts that lasts for several yrs.
Who are Tier Two customers? ADATA, Kingston, or Sandisk and the likes. They will also pay premium for the Prime chips if there are any leftover, and they will buy all the Good chips.
Who are Tier Three customers? Someone like Joe Schmoe Memory Emporium running out of a garage. The names are not known. They will buy all the lower grades chips wherever they can get them and install them into home appliances, talking toys, and so on. Tier Three customers will buy as much lower grades chips as they can from Company A, then if they have to, they go to B.
You cannot afford to lose Tier One/Two customers. You will do whatever you can to keep that %95+ per wafer yield.
As long as you produce only maximum of %85 per wafer yield, you WILL lost money. You may have a lot of Prime chips in that %85 but because no Tier 1/2 will buy them, you have no choice but to sell them at cost or loss. Tier 3 customers know they have you by the balls. Either you sell whatever you have at cost or loss, or you stockpile your products for nothing.
The per-wafer-yield is the best indicator of technology sophistication and manufacturing refinement. The higher the yield, the more you can command premium prices in both contract and open (no contract) markets, and on the open market, there will be bidding wars for your %95+ Prime/Good chips.
Using these wafer maps below as example...
If a company consistently produced that inconsistent per wafer yield, that company will go out of business or be bought out by a competitor.
Now back to China...
If Chinese semicon companies produces lower per wafer yield using domestic tools, they will lose the international market. The Chinese government could force Chinese electronics companies to buy Chinese semicon products but that is not a viable marketing tool.
If industry standard moved to 10 nm but Chinese semicon companies are stuck at 14 nm, even with %95+ per wafer yield, they will lose money. Other companies make %95+ at 10 nm. Why should Tier 1 and 2 customers buy products made with 14 nm technology? This problem is where Chinese semicon companies are at right now. Before the US imposed tech ban, Chinese semicon companies were barely keeping up with the Taiwanese, SKReans, the JPNese, and US. Now with the tech ban, they are forced to regress to older tools that will give them %95+ per wafer yield at higher nanometer scales or lower than %90 at the same nanometer scale.
Chinese semicon companies are at:
10 nm = less than %90 per wafer yield
14 nm = %95+ per wafer yield
Except the market want 10 nm and everyone else are making %95+ per wafer yield. The numbers I used are only to give you a high level understanding of the issue.
Han Patriot
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Hahah gotcha biat*h..lol. Nanometer chips shows how informed you are.
gambit
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A 'wafer' is a thin silicon disk. Like this...
Wafer (electronics) - Wikipedia
We build atomic scale structures like diodes and capacitors on the wafer. Then we have something like the CPU and DRAM chips. But in the semiconductor manufacturing industry, we use the word 'die', not 'chip'.
Here are a few wafers in my personal collection...
On the stand is a 200 mm (I think) SRAM wafer. Tony Stark is standing on a stack of 300 mm NAND wafer.
A 'per wafer yield' is a figure showing how many dies on a wafer is functional, meaning works as designed. Let us say on the wafer are 100 dies or 'chips'. If 75 dies works as designed, then you have a %75 per wafer yield. The figure gets more complex once we factor in different grading, meaning some dies may perform slightly lower performance than its neighbors but still good enough to sell. Then it gets more complex once we figure in clustering, meaning are there groups of non-saleable dies which would indicate manufacturing issues.
In this source, Figure 1 is an example of clustering...
Improved Wafer Map Inspection Using Attention Mechanism and Cosine Normalization
Wafer map inspection is essential for semiconductor manufacturing quality control and analysis. The deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) is the most effective algorithm in wafer defect pattern analysis. Traditional DCNNs rely heavily on high quality datasets for training. However, obtaining...
www.mdpi.com
Out of nine wafers, only one would be technically saleable, but the reality is that the entire nine wafers batch or 'lot' will be scrapped. The word 'lot' is industry term for a group of wafers that started out together. Usually there are 25 wafers in a 'lot'. Twenty five wafers is also industry norm.
5 Sets of 4 inch Diameter 25 Wafers Carrier Box, Polypropylene, Cleanroom Class 100 Grade
High quality cleanroom class 100 grade group wafer carrier box is commonly used for the storage, transport and handling of semiconductor wafers, sapphire wafers or other single crystal substrates. This wafer carrier box is made with polypropylene (PP) material and can hold up to 25 of 4" wafers...
www.msesupplies.com
If out of 25 wafers only a few are saleable, the entire lot will be scrapped, literally toss in the trash, or keep for Engineering experiments usage and that is my current job.
Semiconductor is the new oil. Taiwan in particular and Asia in general are akin to the ME when it comes to semicon products. Companies buy each other's products all the time. It is called competitors analyses, which I also used to do. We literally cut the die or chip apart and put the pieces under a scanning electron microscope (SEM). We chemically analyze the die and find how the other guys formulate their materials. We know that Chinese semicon companies are struggling with using older tools to make smaller and smaller die structures.
The difference between me and the PDF Chinese is that the PDF Chinese are essentially propagandists. They will post the most optimistic news whereas I will dissect the article and give the readers non-partisan sources to explain what the article says. Anyone can use keywords searches to verify what I say.
