Afghans should be able to secure their own country by 2011, NATO predicts
U.S. soldiers with the 101st Airborne Division patrolling in Khost province, Afghanistan, on Monday. (Rafiq Maqbool/The Associated Press)
By Carlotta Gall Published: April 21, 2008
KABUL: The Afghan Army and police forces should be able to secure most of Afghanistan by 2011, allowing international forces to start withdrawing, according to the U.S. commander of the NATO-led force in Afghanistan, General Dan McNeill.
"By about 2011, there is going to be some pretty good capacity in the Afghan National Army," he said in an interview Sunday in the Kabul headquarters of the International Security Assistance Force.
"It will take them a few more years to get their air transport and air support platforms on line, but they should be covering a lot of battle space by some time in 2011, in my view," he said.
By then, barring any cataclysm, the countries contributing troops to the international force could look at whether such a large international force was still desirable, he said. "I think you begin to get to a juncture and say, 'Probably not; maybe we should be starting to change the way this force works,' " he said.
The issue has been important to the discussion within NATO about its mission in Afghanistan. Some members of NATO, which has taken over much of the security for the country, have been reluctant to send troops, or to allow their troops to operate in areas where the insurgency is active.
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A number of foreign troops would still be necessary to help the Afghans for several years after 2011, he said. But he added that the UN-mandated force, which includes 47,000 troops from 40 countries, would be better named the Interim Security Assistance Force, in recognition of its temporary role until Afghan forces can take over.
McNeill, who will complete his second tour in Afghanistan this summer - he commanded American forces from 2002 to 2003 - said that Afghan forces had already effectively been managing the security for Kabul, the capital, for the last year, albeit with NATO support. He also expressed confidence that the Afghans would be able to secure the country well enough for the country to hold presidential elections in September 2009.
His appraisal of the security situation and the state of the Taliban insurgency does not appear to have changed in recent months.
The Taliban, insurgents allied with the leaders removed from power by U.S.-led forces in late 2001, were avoiding conventional battles and resorting more to roadside bombs, also called improvised explosive devices, and to suicide bombings, he said.
"Tactically, on the battlefield, the insurgents did not have a very good year last year," he said. "The so-called toe-to-toe fights will probably be less common - smaller skirmishes - but the technique of choice for the insurgent will be the improvised explosive device and the suicide bomber."
He said he had seen intelligence reports that more foreign fighters had been arriving recently in the tribal areas of Pakistan that border Afghanistan, where Pakistani and Afghan members of the Taliban and Al Qaeda continue to find sanctuary. "The reports are they are increasing," he said.
"It quite possibly could mean, in the areas that are adjacent to the border, a more active spring or summer than we should have had," he said.
"If there are sanctuaries for the extremists, for the miscreants, for the insurgents, that remain just out of reach of security forces, then it becomes a difficult problem and it makes achieving long-term security and stability within Afghanistan awfully hard to reach," he said.
The long-term stability of Afghanistan also depends on the good will and help of all its neighbors, not just Pakistan, he said. "All neighbors have to be helpful, and there are quite a few neighbors around here," he said.
NATO forces must improve their training to avoid roadside bombs, which have increased significantly in recent months, he said. But he said that the Afghan forces were the best protection against suicide bombers, since the bombers were usually strangers and Afghans were likely to spot strangers much more quickly than foreign soldiers could.
Development of a national police force is critical to success in countering the insurgency, he said, adding that despite generous support from the U.S. Congress for police training, "The rate of progress is not fast enough for any of us."
Afghans should be able to secure their own country by 2011, NATO predicts - International Herald Tribune
