Afghanistan Post-2014 Open discussion.

[A-Team]

Afghanistan post-2014

Here is an Afghan perspective. Let’s keep the discussion open and civilized.

1. 350K strong ANSF keeping order in the country and the Taliban at bay
2. The center of gravity shifts from the Taliban into economy and creating jobs, Taliban have been given too much attention. Give people jobs and they wont pick up an AK.
3. Afghanistan accepts the Durand line, and in return wants Pakistan to once and for all end supporting the elements that threaten Afghan security.
4. India, Iran, US are clearly told that they will not use Afghanistan as launching pad to destabilize other countries.
5. War based economy slowly transitioning into a sustainable market based economy
6. Investment in mineral mines across the country, creating thousands of local jobs and making sure that the locals secure it.
7. Afghanistan signs strategic agreement with various countries including a BSA with the United Statues, which will allow the US to have both military and political footprint in Afghanistan.
8. Afghanistan clearly stating to the neighbors, that it wants peaceful co-existence with all and wont allow its soil being used against them, in return it wants all regional neighbors to stop acting as spoilers.
9. In case neighbors wont stop acting as spoilers, Afghanistan uses item #7 to hurt neighbors in ways that will compel them to stop interfering in our affairs, as Afghanistan did successfully in the tenure of Dr. Najibullahs period.

 

[Armstrong]

Afghanistan post-2014

Here is an Afghan perspective. Let’s keep the discussion open and civilized.

1. 350K strong ANSF keeping order in the country and the Taliban at bay
2. The center of gravity shifts from the Taliban into economy and creating jobs, Taliban have been given too much attention. Give people jobs and they wont pick up an AK.
3. Afghanistan accepts the Durand line, and in return wants Pakistan to once and for all end supporting the elements that threaten Afghan security.
4. India, Iran, US are clearly told that they will not use Afghanistan as launching pad to destabilize other countries.
5. War based economy slowly transitioning into a sustainable market based economy
6. Investment in mineral mines across the country, creating thousands of local jobs and making sure that the locals secure it.
7. Afghanistan signs strategic agreement with various countries including a BSA with the United Statues, which will allow the US to have both military and political footprint in Afghanistan.
8. Afghanistan clearly stating to the neighbors, that it wants peaceful co-existence with all and wont allow its soil being used against them, in return it wants all regional neighbors to stop acting as spoilers.
9. In case neighbors wont stop acting as spoilers, Afghanistan uses item #7 to hurt neighbors in ways that will compel them to stop interfering in our affairs, as Afghanistan did successfully in the tenure of Dr. Najibullahs period.

If you do all of that - I'd consider you a brother & our bad blood will end forever !

But you have to mean what you say - Which means no Baluch Separatists finding refuge & sustenance in Afghanistan, no Pashtunistan Issue rekindled, most certainly not a repeat of the Bajaur Invasion of the '60s by your Tribal Militias & no sanctuaries for the TTP on your land !

In return - We take care of the Taliban, take steps to increase trade even further & don't allow our territory to be used to destabilize Afghanistan !

Fair ?

 

[M.harris]

Afghanistan post-2014

Here is an Afghan perspective. Let’s keep the discussion open and civilized.

1. 350K strong ANSF keeping order in the country and the Taliban at bay
2. The center of gravity shifts from the Taliban into economy and creating jobs, Taliban have been given too much attention. Give people jobs and they wont pick up an AK.
3. Afghanistan accepts the Durand line, and in return wants Pakistan to once and for all end supporting the elements that threaten Afghan security.
4. India, Iran, US are clearly told that they will not use Afghanistan as launching pad to destabilize other countries.
5. War based economy slowly transitioning into a sustainable market based economy
6. Investment in mineral mines across the country, creating thousands of local jobs and making sure that the locals secure it.
7. Afghanistan signs strategic agreement with various countries including a BSA with the United Statues, which will allow the US to have both military and political footprint in Afghanistan.
8. Afghanistan clearly stating to the neighbors, that it wants peaceful co-existence with all and wont allow its soil being used against them, in return it wants all regional neighbors to stop acting as spoilers.
9. In case neighbors wont stop acting as spoilers, Afghanistan uses item #7 to hurt neighbors in ways that will compel them to stop interfering in our affairs, as Afghanistan did successfully in the tenure of Dr. Najibullahs period.

hope this is the case in post 2014 it will be benefited both the countries and as well as region sir are you sure most afghans have same views what you have.

 

[livingdead]

Accepting durand line is suicidal for any afgan ruler. The best they can do is say it in private to pakistani leadership.

 

[pakistani342]

I'd like to answer this thread without predictions of what will or will not happen but with salient facts and in certain cases how these facts compare to similar facts in other nations such as Pakistan.

1. There is currently 30%-40% unemployment in Afghanistan - this is chronic
2. The Soviets left a 400,000 strong security apparatus that was much more capable than today's ANA - I'd encourage you to study the order of battle of the Afghan Air force the Soviets left behind - pretty impressive
3. The Afghans have a far more anemic base of technocrats when compared with Pakistan - An anecdotal comparison is of the number of engineering and technical professionals found in Pakistani Diaspora vs. say Afghan Diaspora: how many Afghan engineers, doctors, etc. do you know? - compare that to Pakistanis
4. The Afghans have a very anemic higher education system - just consider Pakistan's engineering and technical colleges: NUST, UETs, GIK, LUMS, etc. Afghanistan has not been able to build a single university that is remotely as capable (I would encourage you to read my comments at the bottom of the article on foreign policy here - which drew considerable ire from person in charge of communication at AUAF)
5. Afghanistan has a society that has been bathed in almost 40 years of war
6. Afghanistan (at least according to Afghans) has a significant neighbor (Pakistan) with whom tensions are escalating and will probably continue to escalate with Pakistan taking significant countermeasure (to quote General Stanley McChrystal)
7. Markets are amongst the greatest predictors of futures: The Afghan refugees in Pakistan don't seem to be rushing to claim their piece of the Afghan Gold rush, because one simply will not exist (the prefer to persist in Pakistan which itself is a very troubled country)
8. Natural Resources in conflict ridden places tend to fall prey to the resource curse
9. The West is leaving - despite statements to the contrary the mood in the US, especially *inside the beltway* is one of hurried exit
10. The Afghan political process has not been able to evolve to a level that a modern state needs (compare this to Pakistan).
11. Given a choice between Pakistan and Afghanistan - the world will always choose Pakistan - simply because the prospects of a failed Pakistan are scary (they keep Obama up at night) - the prospects of a failed Afghanistan - sad but we have several Somalias in the world - what's one more

Now here is the bottom line:
.. Compare how Afghanistan stands in comparison to Pakistan
.. Pakistan is faring rather poorly to put it mildly
.. Now extrapolate that to how you expect Afghanistan to fare ... sadly the prognosis looks rather bleak

 

[Cyberian]

Only 544 days to go until the Fajr of Thurday January 1, 2015.

 

[pakistani342]

are you sure most afghans have same views what you have.

Good point -- I was going to point that out -- these are the poster's views.

I think a more accurate disposition of Afghan views can be discerned from from the bags of cash heading to Dubai and from the falling property prices in Kabul.

 

[pakistani342]

I'd also like to point out what I think are curious reading of history in two of your points:

Afghanistan post-2014
8. Afghanistan clearly stating to the neighbors, that it wants peaceful co-existence with all and wont allow its soil being used against them, in return it wants all regional neighbors to stop acting as spoilers.

Statement and elucidations aside, acts such as the the training of ANA officers by India will be interpreted as a hostile act in the extreme by Pakistan - again we can argue if this is fair or right or wrong - the bottom line is that Pakistan's deep state views any Indian involvement in Afghanistan as a very hostile act. Analysts typically point out the fact that Pakistan has been willing to antagonize even the United States and Jeopardize it's relationship with her to pursue what it considers countermeasures to Indian influence.

Afghanistan post-2014
9. In case neighbors wont stop acting as spoilers, Afghanistan uses item #7 to hurt neighbors in ways that will compel them to stop interfering in our affairs, as Afghanistan did successfully in the tenure of Dr. Najibullahs period.

Again my reading of history could be warped but I don't remember Dr. Najibullahs period as one that is characterized as one where Afghans successfully stopped the interference of their neighbors. I think the poor chap hanging from traffic light post is a better yardstick of the success of his policy of keeping his neighbors out.

What Afghans do not understand is that the world will choose Pakistan over Afghanistan each and every time simply because Afghanistan does not matter nearly as much in the grand scheme of things.

 

[That Guy]

Can a mod sticky this thread? The topic is fairly important.

Anyways, I think that most of the points that OP posted are practical but unimplementable. I think this because no side will actually agree to a lot of these demands. US permanent footprint in Afghanistan will be objected by China, Iran and Russia. Accepting of the Durand line will be unacceptable by any Afghan faction, including the government and the Taliban. Finally, the Taliban leadership and hardcore Taliban fighters won't give up their arms regardless of the economic improvements made in Afghanistan.

There are plenty of other reasons, but these are the main issues that I think need to be resolved before the withdrawal. If these are not, Afghanistan can and will plunge into civil war.

 

[Jungibaaz]

My prediction:

• Civil war like situation, however with less pronounced extremism as a result of withdrawal of MOST foreign troops. Also since negotiations with the taliban will lead nowhere.
• Deteriorating security situation.
• Economic slowdown or slump due to low consumers and investor confidence following withdrawal of international security forces. Capital flight. The only thing that could prop up the Afghan economy is aid. I know you folks talk of development, but that is a long term solution that is a possibility, in the short run, no matter what the future holds, economic slump is likely.
• Indo-Pak war by agencies within Afghanistan.
• I don't expect relations to improve, and I don't expect Karzai to accept Durand line, a thing which he refused long ago. So I expect more turmoil in Pak-Afghan relations.
• I expect the taliban to gain ground, even if their numbers begin to fall. The ANA's war doctrine is that which the US made and now ANA has adopted. The US fought this war by staying within the safety of their large ground bases and within major population centers. Also they fought this war on the back of their firepower, namely air power and drones. Which Afghan army wont have much of at all.
• Another worse situation for ANA could be a high desertion rate, like I said, history may repeat itself and some within the ANA do not want to fight their countrymen indefinitely. Should the taliban make any early gains, it would damage the Afghan army's morale. As such, the already high desertion rate and AWOL rate may increase.
• Growing disaffection of the population of the common man from the political system let alone politicians, due to rampant corruption, vested interest of politicians and the war they will continue to wage.

I've named some of the main features, some of them I may have missed, and less significant ones I've missed out.

 

[RangerPK]

Afghanistan post-2014

Here is an Afghan perspective. Let’s keep the discussion open and civilized.

1. 350K strong ANSF keeping order in the country and the Taliban at bay
2. The center of gravity shifts from the Taliban into economy and creating jobs, Taliban have been given too much attention. Give people jobs and they wont pick up an AK.
3. Afghanistan accepts the Durand line, and in return wants Pakistan to once and for all end supporting the elements that threaten Afghan security.
4. India, Iran, US are clearly told that they will not use Afghanistan as launching pad to destabilize other countries.
5. War based economy slowly transitioning into a sustainable market based economy
6. Investment in mineral mines across the country, creating thousands of local jobs and making sure that the locals secure it.
7. Afghanistan signs strategic agreement with various countries including a BSA with the United Statues, which will allow the US to have both military and political footprint in Afghanistan.
8. Afghanistan clearly stating to the neighbors, that it wants peaceful co-existence with all and wont allow its soil being used against them, in return it wants all regional neighbors to stop acting as spoilers.
9. In case neighbors wont stop acting as spoilers, Afghanistan uses item #7 to hurt neighbors in ways that will compel them to stop interfering in our affairs, as Afghanistan did successfully in the tenure of Dr. Najibullahs period.

Sometimes I think having good relation between Afghanistan and Pakistan is inevitable. Stable Afghanistan is good for Pakistan, and stable Pakistan is good for Afghanistan. Any one who would try to prevent it, are just preventing the inevitable, and spreading more chaos.

 

[Grevion]

Afghanistan have a vast amount of natural resources if only your govt could use it properly by avoiding corruption,it will pay off really well.
USA and NATO came to Afghanistan in search of Al-Qaeda and Osama they have almost got what they were searching for but still the War On Terror has not ended so they will not leave Afghanistan in a mess it will haunt them back,they will keep providing the help and support to Afghanistan's govt. and the ANA,all US and NATO soldiers won't leave Afghanistan even after 2014 they will stay to stabilize.
The Taliban ideology has spread and continued even before the invasion of USSR and it still exists so it is impossible to neglect them after 2014,it will be better if they are given some representation in the country's govt. or the parliament(if their would be any post 2014) if would help them not feeling neglected.
Afghanistan should not be considered as a ground for starting proxy games against any nation, it has already seen many years of war so its better to let the peace endure and hope that the peace will endure.
Afghanistan can start its economy development by properly managing the natural resources on its land, its the first and the foremost area of focus to start if your economy has almost nothing.The only thing they should learn is dealing with foreign investors properly for paying off the best with the best technology and giving the works to local Afghans.
As far As India is concerned we are going right and should continue it,our massive involvement will come in future if required.

 

[sree45]

An ideal solution would be, Both Taliban and Afghan govt should sit together and try to create a constitution that is both democratic and at the same time acceptable to both of them. But its easier said than done.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

That IMHO is never gonna happen. The Taliban knows they are in a position of strength(psychologically). Besides democracy and Taliban just dont go hand in hand.

An ideal solution would be, Both Taliban and Afghan govt should sit together and try to create a constitution that is both democratic and at the same time acceptable to both of them. But its easier said than done.

 

[A-Team]

If you do all of that - I'd consider you a brother & our bad blood will end forever !

But you have to mean what you say - Which means no Baluch Separatists finding refuge & sustenance in Afghanistan, no Pashtunistan Issue rekindled, most certainly not a repeat of the Bajaur Invasion of the '60s by your Tribal Militias & no sanctuaries for the TTP on your land !

In return - We take care of the Taliban, take steps to increase trade even further & don't allow our territory to be used to destabilize Afghanistan !

Fair ?

There is a serious policy discussion being undertaken by the political elites in Kabul and the narrative is what I have summarized earlier.
Now we need to be objective about the Durand Line as must Pakistan be about Kashmir, the ground realities point to facts that there is no going back, the sooner the region realize the sooner we can move forward.
The same goes for Pakistan, the sooner it realizes that Kashmir is now an integral part of India the sooner it can move forward.
What matters most for Afghanistan is that it under no circumstances wants to be a battle ground for regional rivalries anymore.

The question still being asked by Afghans is whether the Durand Line and the perceived Indian influence is the pinnacle of Pakistani paranoia towards Afghanistan? Afghan diplomats report that on several occasions Pakistani counterparts told them that their sphere of influence goes on to Salang mountain pass. If that is the thinking then will Pakistan be ever satisfied?


Furthermore the question still stands to the ability the of the Pakistani civilian government whether then can force the hawks in the military to buy into this kind of setup?