Aarush
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How deeply President Barak Obama’s Afghanistan policy is mired was signaled again this week by reports of an Indian deal with Russia to supply weapons to the Afghan military after withdrawal of US and NATO troops at year-end 2014. The shipments would graduate from small arms to tanks, helicopters and heavy weapons.
Russian involvement could also be an early sign of how Moscow plans to cause trouble for the White House, stemming from Vladimir Putin’s irritation at the growing US economic sanctions against his friends including pressure on the European Union to follow suit.
The sanctions are almost cost free for the Washington and Moscow because trade with Russia barely touches $40 billion. But Russian trade with Europe is nearly half a trillion dollars and costs of more sanctions can be heavy for both sides.
Moscow cannot do much about the sanctions but it can work to prevent American footholds in Afghanistan through the backdoors of India and China. India will do whatever is necessary to prevent archrival Pakistan from turning Afghanistan into a satellite by covertly helping the Taliban to recapture Kabul.
China is very skittish about radical Islamists controlling a wild country in its neighborhood. Beijing fears they will export more terrorism and unrest to Muslims in its restive eastern provinces and inspire Buddhist Tibetans in the east and south to take up violence. Both peoples accuse the Han Chinese of oppressing them for decades with Beijing’s help.
The White House is trying desperately to close a security deal with Afghan authorities that would leave some 12,000-15,000 American “advisors” in that country to bolster local military and law enforcement with intelligence and other support.
Outgoing Afghan President Hamid Karzai refused to sign a deal in December 2013 leaving that decision to whichever government takes over in Kabul after the national elections that enter a second runoff round later this month.
While the White House and Pentagon remained mired in their own policies, others in the neighborhood are moving quickly to prevent a takeover by the extremist Taliban Islamists after Western withdrawal. Their voices carry greater favor with a wide section of northern Afghan leaders than the US, despite its painful sacrifices of thousands of young soldiers and nearly a trillion dollars in Afghanistan.
At this point, few Afghan leaders dare to be seen as America’s friends because of widespread popular anger over civilian deaths and alleged offences to the traditional Islamic lifestyles of ordinary Afghans. The offences were caused during the hundreds of times when US and NATO soldiers burst into the homes of villagers at night, humiliating men in front of their women and children.
The Afghan military has long petitioned India to supply arms and training they see as more relevant to their style of soldiering. The Indians procrastinated but could no longer delay when the White House, annoyed at Karzai’s stubbornness, hinted that Obama was willing to quit Afghanistan without a mutual security arrangement.
That opened a real possibility of a Pakistan-backed Taliban takeover in Kabul or, at least, takeover by southern Pashtun tribes that hate northern Uzbeks, Tajiks and others who are more secular. That would create longer terms worries for both India and China because of expanded Islamic radicalism in the region. Neither country trusts Pakistan because sections of its military continue to covertly nurture the Taliban.
Delhi sent a delegation to Moscow in February to discuss weapons transfers since Russia supplies over 70 percent of India’s weapons and was a major supplier to the anti-Taliban northern forces before American troops arrived on the scene. Afghanistan also contains rusting stocks of old Soviet weapons, which could be reconditioned with Russian help.
It also held talks with China, Japan and Iran to find ways of funding the $4 billion required to meet the Afghan military’s military requests. Everything was put on hold because a continued US presence in Afghanistan after 2014 would make many of the supplies redundant.
The deal with Moscow became necessary because the Indian military does not have sufficient surplus equipment and has no easy routes to make deliveries. Above all, Russian technology is well known in the region and is much simpler to handle than American materiel.
China has not yet stepped into the picture with offers of weapons but may not stand aside if Taliban or other Islamists backed by Pakistan seem capable of capturing Kabul. China is a major weapons supplier to Pakistan because it wishes to contain India, but could make common cause with Delhi to ensure a non-Islamist regime in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan: India and Russia move as Obama exits morass | The Moderate Voice
