Ok, so it's just one more opinion, but I think the author is right to focus on Karzai, he has now become a giant headache for all parties concerned, how will he be maneuvered into creating his own irrelevance, to my thinking, will be a tremendous challenge for American diplomacy
Sleepless in Kabul
Aasim Zafar Khan
Monday, June 24, 2013
Afghanistan is on the brink of history. The Americans are about to leave, and elections are around the corner as well. And just when the world thought that peace in Afghanistan was an impossible dream, the United States (with a lot of help from a certain friend/foe) managed to bring the Afghan Taliban onto the negotiating table. The talks were just days away, the future of Afghanistan on the agenda. And then Hamid Karzai happened.
On the surface, what ticked the Afghan president off were two things: a) the Afghan Taliban were using the name ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’ and b) instead of the Afghan national flag, they were flying their own colours. This to Karzai was impossible, a slap to Afghan dignity, and he promptly put into question a bilateral security agreement between the US and Afghanistan post 2014. But the truth is that Hamid Karzai is scared, and fighting to survive and remain relevant.
First things first, these talks were going to be ‘Afghan-led’, but there wasn’t an Afghan to be seen, apart from one of the two Taliban at the press conference. In opening a direct line with the Afghan Taliban, the US has very strongly signalled its total lack of belief in the Karzai government’s efforts to secure peace in Afghanistan’s future.
Second, let’s assume that talks between the Afghan Taliban and the US take place and are successful. What would be the outcome? Well, simply, there would be a countrywide ceasefire, and the Taliban would be allowed to take part in next April’s presidential elections. And what if they nominate Mullah Omar as their candidate? What sort of chance does he have against people like Abdullah Abdullah, Omar Daudzai, Qayum Karzai and Ahmed Massoud’s brother? Depending on who you listen to, Mullah Omar could beat these guys in a presidential election. Imagine the reaction.
It’s this exact chance that scares Karzai, and he will do all he can to ensure that the talks don’t happen. The Taliban would ruin his best-laid plans. Plans he has so meticulously created. What the Afghan president is also trying to do is negate Pakistani interference in his country post 2014. But Karzai overestimates how much ‘control’ Pakistan has over the Afghan Taliban, which are now a primarily Afghan-led, independent movement. President Karzai has long been muttering his disapproval about ‘Pakistanis meddling in Afghan affairs’.
The Afghan presidential elections, scheduled for April 2014, are wide open. We all remember how utterly rigged the last one was, but thankfully, Hamid Karzai cannot run for the office for a third time. So he’s touting his brother Qayum in his place. The problem is that Qayum does not garner the kind of Pakhtun support that Karzai has, and is not a winning horse.
Realising this, Pakistan has put its money elsewhere, mending fences with erstwhile opponents such as Abdullah Abdullah, and looking to support, for the very first time, a non-Pakhtun as the president of Afghanistan.
Karzai is trapped. If he stops the Taliban from entering into the political process, he is denying his country the possibility of peace. If he tries to sidestep Pakistan, he risks alienating the Pakhtuns from Afghanistan’s highest office – for the first time in a very long time.
What must Karzai do in order to remain relevant and true to Afghanistan? To be honest, he cannot remain relevant, having bungled up the last two terms in office, cutting deals with warlords who would put many global war criminals to shame. However, he can still be true to his country and people.
Let’s take the Taliban out of the equation for now. Afghanistan is a country fractured and divided into numerous groups, mostly on ethnic lines. It looks extremely unlikely that all the different groups will be able to come to a unanimous decision for a candidate to succeed Hamid Karzai. Or that if a certain party wins the elections, the other or others will accept the result as legitimate. If this sort of thing happens, there is the possibility of a total breakdown of governance in Afghanistan, and this will happen without the Taliban having lifted a finger!
Despite western efforts, the civilian government in Afghanistan remains weak, fractured and extremely corrupt. On the other hand, a very large sum of money has been poured into the Afghan National Army, which has been made numerically powerful and well-equipped. As history has shown, whenever there is a weak civilian government and an unfairly strong military institution, what happens?
We Pakistanis know the answer to that question very well: the military steps in. There is a strong likelihood that in Afghanistan, in case of a breakdown of governance, the ANA will step in. However, the ANA is also fractured and divided along ethnic lines, much like the Afghan state. The Pakhtuns believe that the army is predominantly Tajik and could easily rally opponents under the ‘Pakhtun’ banner. Also, factions within the army could also break away, and with the government broken and the army fighting within itself, the situation could quickly and easily spiral out of control.
Karzai must, at the earliest, understand that his country is on the brink of a civil war post 2014, and whatever violence can be avoided should be avoided.
Afghanistan needs a break.
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