Afghan Government Could Collapse 6 Months After U.S. Withdrawal: US Intelligence

[jk007]

Read my post above about American Psyche, right now they are playing catch up to China, Russia & Co., they want a base like they had in Pak during Cold War which was a mistake and made it’s a nuclear target from Russia and to think the US would somehow respond in defense. However it’s not feasible as we are allied to China.

Even for India it’ll be a stupid move to offer a base why make your homeland be under Chinese scope — those who have a real issue the US let them fight it out on there own and take the brunt on land, sea and air.

The problem I have with Asians in general living there and all, you all are willing to open your legs without realizing the danger you put yourselves into for a fight that doesn’t strategically concern you and that to on behalf of a country 12,000 miles away.

A) USA is the most mis-understood nation on this planet. Very very unfortunate, given the amount of good that USA did / intended to do.

I will not argue on this point, as (I know) you will not like it.

USA does not understand Islamic world, should leave them.

Maybe, I am a naive person, but I find the general mis-understanding of USA to be deeply disturbing (to me).

I am born in India, but I say this - USA is the greatest country ever created (although, it may have hit it's own hubris dealing with Islamic world).

B) recent actions of China have pushed India into western orbit. India does not have wherewithal to fight China alone. It needs help (technology / latest weapons) from western nations.

 

[Leishangthem]

US turned taliban into their asset just like AlQaeda,US the Master of Narco trade and extremist groups ww .

We've been dealing with such things since early 60s till early 90s... And then for the last two decades as well... Even having a superpower as a neighbor for a decade.... Capacity is not an issue.... And it's not just the capacity of the army, it's the capacity of our whole nation which has been built up over decades, which no power had been able to break yet.

US didn't failed in Afghanistan for US didn't planned to remove talibaN,it planned to hijack it,just like in case of Al Qaeda.
US,China,Russia they carry full capability to wipeout taliban,some more than others it's about the choice not capability.

 

[That Guy]

I understand what you are saying, but what can we do when a superpower has given up.

First, there is plenty Pakistan can do, some of which I've mentioned previously.

As for the US's failures, the super power gave up because of personal issues, not because it wasn't capable.

The USA's Afghanistan failure is entire due to internal issues within the US's security and civilian apparatus. I'll give you an example: remember the Obama surge? Do you know why it's considered a failure? It's because the surge was neutered by Obama.

The original plan that military commanders came up with involved up to 300,000 troops, and 10 years. The plan was that these 300,000 troops would occupy large portions of Afghanistan, where the US would pour money into infrastructure, training, schooling, hospitals, roads, and city building across Afghanistan, over a 10 year period, all protected by a huge US army presence. Contractors and civilians would by brought over to offer long term training to Afghans, to teach them vital skills to increase their employment and literacy rates. The ANA's training period would also increase from a pathetic 3 months to a reasonable 1 year period, and over 10 years, this would have a tremendous rippling effect over Afghanistan's population

What ended up happening was that Obama was too afraid of the political consequences of such a large commitment. So, the surge was reduced from 300,000 to 50,000, and only over the period of 3 years time, instead of the original 10 years. The money was also reduced significantly, and only used in basic vanity projects, that literally made little to no difference to the lives of normal Afghans. A genius plan was deliberately ruined, because politicians were too afraid to put their political careers on the line.

 

[Rafi]

First, there is plenty Pakistan can do, some of which I've mentioned previously.

As for the US's failures, the super power gave up because of personal issues, not because it wasn't capable.

The USA's Afghanistan failure is entire due to internal issues within the US's security and civilian apparatus. I'll give you an example: remember the Obama surge? Do you know why it's considered a failure? It's because the surge was neutered by Obama.

The original plan that military commanders came up with involved up to 300,000 troops, and 10 years. The plan was that these 300,000 troops would occupy large portions of Afghanistan, where the US would pour money into infrastructure, training, schooling, hospitals, roads, and city building across Afghanistan, over a 10 year period, all protected by a huge US army presence. Contractors and civilians would by brought over to offer long term training to Afghans, to teach them vital skills to increase their employment and literacy rates. The ANA's training period would also increase from a pathetic 3 months to a reasonable 1 year period, and over 10 years, this would have a tremendous rippling effect over Afghanistan's population

What ended up happening was that Obama was too afraid of the political consequences of such a large commitment. So, the surge was reduced from 300,000 to 50,000, and only over the period of 3 years time, instead of the original 10 years. The money was also reduced significantly, and only used in basic vanity projects, that literally made little to no difference to the lives of normal Afghans. A genius plan was deliberately ruined, because politicians were too afraid to put their political careers on the line.

They still spent 2 trillion dollars with the much smaller commitment, imagine a much larger presence, who was going to pay for that.

 

[That Guy]

@PanzerKiel + other experts

Actually, if Taliban agressively pursues the idea of Pakhtunistan, what will be the response of Pakistan? Go to war with afghanistan (that is headed by taliban)? If taliban does not face pressure from northern alliance (does it still exist?), then they will be more inclined to pursue pakhtunistan?? do you agree??

If it comes to that, then what did pak achieve by double dealing for the past 20 years? They end-up with 2 hot borders which they desperately want to avoid?

But I have to give it to Pak Army for playing such large games (that are very difficult to predict the way they turn).

Does Pak Army has capacity (& money) to face large scale insurgency? Already, I read somewhere that there is some unhappiness among pashtuns.

Not trolling.

The taliban wouldn't pursue such an idea, and have shown no desire to do so in the past. Though they do hold the same views as the Afghan government, where they do not de jure recognize the Durand line.

If the taliban try and go to war with Pakistan, Pakistan would avoid sending Pakistani troops deep into Afghan territory, much of the fighting would involved air strikes on Talib targets near the border, as well as major taliban bases. Pakistan would also try to find and detain taliban leaders within Afghanistan, if possible. The most I can see happening is Pakistan capturing key territories along the border within Afghanistan, and holding them as a buffer. Pakistan would also MAYBE (and this is just me wish fulfilling here) take the Wakhan corridor and de facto annexing it, without officially annexing it.

As for these claims of double dealing, no such thing. It's a myth to make the US feel better about its own failures.

Nations follow their own interests, and to say that Pakistan did double dealings because it didn't go to war with the Afghan taliban is foolish.

Pakistan had no reason to go to war with the Afghan taliban, nor did the US ever demand such a thing. The money Pakistan got wasn't even aid, it was payment for services rendered. The US relied almost exclusively on Pakistani ALOC and GLOC to wage its war in Afghanistan, and its completely legitimate to say that without Pakistan, a US wouldn't even have been able to fight in the first place. Don't think I'm telling the truth? Take a taxi and refuse to pay your fare, see what happens as a result of your actions.

Pakistan has already fought and won against a large scale insurgency, in the form of the ttp, where the ttp had taken over NWA and SWAT. Pakistan has already shown that it has the capability to fight and win against a large scale insurgency.

They still spent 2 trillion dollars with the much smaller commitment, imagine a much larger presence, who was going to pay for that.

The 2 trillion and the size of the presence are two different, separate issues. The 2 trillion mainly comes from wasteful spending in Afghanistan. At one point, US soldiers and contractors were told just to spend money, they weren't told on what, and where.

In Iraq, the amount spend was half that, and the US had a significantly larger presence in Iraq than it did in Afghanistan (by a factor of 10x at one point).

A planned out shopping list is different from just throwing money at a problem and hoping it goes away.

 

[ziaulislam]

When did I say control? It's pressure, and influence, those are very different things. If Pakistan can pressure the talibs to sit down with the US, then they can do the same now with the Afghan government.

There are two different things
Taliban gave USA a face saving withdrawal
Taliban are ready to give ghani similar package of handing over power or power sharing some areas..

But expecting them to do power sharing undercurrent setup is ludricus..

First, there is plenty Pakistan can do, some of which I've mentioned previously.

As for the US's failures, the super power gave up because of personal issues, not because it wasn't capable.

The USA's Afghanistan failure is entire due to internal issues within the US's security and civilian apparatus. I'll give you an example: remember the Obama surge? Do you know why it's considered a failure? It's because the surge was neutered by Obama.

The original plan that military commanders came up with involved up to 300,000 troops, and 10 years. The plan was that these 300,000 troops would occupy large portions of Afghanistan, where the US would pour money into infrastructure, training, schooling, hospitals, roads, and city building across Afghanistan, over a 10 year period, all protected by a huge US army presence. Contractors and civilians would by brought over to offer long term training to Afghans, to teach them vital skills to increase their employment and literacy rates. The ANA's training period would also increase from a pathetic 3 months to a reasonable 1 year period, and over 10 years, this would have a tremendous rippling effect over Afghanistan's population

What ended up happening was that Obama was too afraid of the political consequences of such a large commitment. So, the surge was reduced from 300,000 to 50,000, and only over the period of 3 years time, instead of the original 10 years. The money was also reduced significantly, and only used in basic vanity projects, that literally made little to no difference to the lives of normal Afghans. A genius plan was deliberately ruined, because politicians were too afraid to put their political careers on the line.

The only problem with this plan was ..it didnt work frm 2002-2006 when there was full peace because of HIGH DEGREE of corruption

Everyone took a pie from the free money

So implying that a troop surge would have brought peace and infrastruture spending is ludricus

Didnt work 1970s will not work today

 

[That Guy]

There are two different things
Taliban gave USA a face saving withdrawal
Taliban are ready to give ghani similar package of handing over power or power sharing some areas..

But expecting them to do power sharing undercurrent setup is ludricus..

The only problem with this plan was ..it didnt work frm 2002-2006 when there was full peace because of HIGH DEGREE of corruption

Everyone took a pie from the free money

So implying that a troop surge would have brought peace and infrastruture spending is ludricus

Didnt work 1970s will not work today

The period of 2002 to 2006 didn't involve this plan, don't know why you're saying that.

The reason why so much money was wasted during that time was due to a lack of coordination between various agencies. US forces were literally given a wade of cash and told to just spend it, with no instructions on what to spend it on.

The surge was supposed to be different, it was meticulously thought out and planned, down to the last dollar. It was ruined by politics.

Corruption didn't have as big of an impact as you think, because if it did, Afghanistan would have more billionaires that China.

 

[GumNaam]

Do not count your chickens before they are hatched.

I would rather wait for the last US and Western soldier to be completely withdraw before I opined.

These Western Powers have been talking about it for ages but at the last minute there will be always be a change of plan and mind.

As long as Afghanistan is a neighbour of both China and Russia, they will act in unison to bring about peace and stability to the region.

My take is neither Russia nor China wish to see Afghanistan becoming an anarchist states where terrorist can roam around freely.

u.s. has announced through media outlets that the u.s. may keep 650 or so troops in Afghanistan. the problem that they face with their sudden policy changing habits is that the Taliban has said that the u.s. nato forces only have safe exit until September 11 and that too, so as long as they don't get in Taliban’s way...after September 11, it's open season on u.s. & nato troops' heads. so they don't really have the luxury of making sudden policy changes.

China & Russia know that they will have to support the Taliban outright instead of some sort of a coalition government approach. the ghani regime is puppet mouth piece of the west, with ghani et al around there will always be a danger of cia sponsored insurgencies & terrorism in both Russia & China. Taliban has already had an agreement with birth China & Russia nor to interfere in those country's matters nor export their ideology. they will provide all necessary intelligence & law enforcement support to Russia & China to eliminate all cia & mi6 operations against them. in exchange, China & Russia will open the gates of investments especially in the power and mining industries not to mention put Afghanistan in the cross roads of OBOR, CPEC & EuroAsian route...THAT will bring stability & prosperity to Afghanistan. Asians helping Asians, that's the name of the game.

 

[prothought]

If it comes to that, then what did pak achieve by double dealing for the past 20 years? They end-up with 2 hot borders which they desperately want to avoid?

Using common sense may help you and other Indians. Believe me it increases when you use it.

I don't know how Pakistan could double deal in the past 20 years even after giving bases inside Pakistan to Americans and allowing their agents to roam around freely in all of Pakistan including sensitive areas. Afghanistan was under their occupation anyways. On top of that Indians were fully involved using terrorism against Pakistan while using Afghanistan as their staging ground. If you still claim of Pakistani double dealing then that poorly reflects on the capabilities of Americans/Nato and Indians. Just admit your defeate. That is a graceful way.

Actually, if Taliban agressively pursues the idea of Pakhtunistan, what will be the response of Pakistan? Go to war with afghanistan...

Afghan Taliban are not sell-outs like shameless Afghan elite class. They understand the real evil game played by outsiders (including Indians, and Westerners) and so they don't get caught into the enemy trap. Taliban might have acted independently by not accepting Pakistan's advice in the past on many different occasions but they have never been against Pakistn. Rest assured that your wishful dreams of turning Afghan Taliban against Pakistan will never realize in your life.

 

[Pandora]

This estimate is a bit too generous. It would be miracle if Kabulistan last 6 days.