As I said, 'window dressing', showing 'growth' with the stroke of a pen, many corporates also do it to jack up profits/revenue or to hide it.
India to Recalibrate GDP Measurement in 2015
Accounting revisions and a business census will boost China's GDP stats by about 15% for 2013-2015
- Thread starter cirr
- Start date
India to Recalibrate GDP Measurement in 2015
TaiShang
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LOL. Nice catch.
cirr
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China sees more companies in service sector
(Globalpost/GlobalPost)
BEIJING, Dec. 16 (Xinhua) -- China has more enterprises in the service sector, marking improvement in its economic structure under the "new normal", the latest official data showed on Tuesday.
The number of companies in the service sector was nearly triple that of the secondary industry by the end of 2013, according to results of the latest national economic census published by the National Bureau of Statistics.
There were 10.86 million enterprises engaged in the two industries by the end of last year, up 52.9 percent from 2008, the census showed.
China launched the third national economic census in 2013, covering the secondary and tertiary industries. The first two economic censuses were conducted in 2004 and 2008 respectively.
(Globalpost/GlobalPost)
BEIJING, Dec. 16 (Xinhua) -- China has more enterprises in the service sector, marking improvement in its economic structure under the "new normal", the latest official data showed on Tuesday.
The number of companies in the service sector was nearly triple that of the secondary industry by the end of 2013, according to results of the latest national economic census published by the National Bureau of Statistics.
There were 10.86 million enterprises engaged in the two industries by the end of last year, up 52.9 percent from 2008, the census showed.
China launched the third national economic census in 2013, covering the secondary and tertiary industries. The first two economic censuses were conducted in 2004 and 2008 respectively.
cirr
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China high-tech manufacturing firms see fast growth
Source: Xinhua | December 16, 2014, Tuesday | Online Edition
CHINA has seen a surge of high-technology manufacturing companies and a spike in their profits from 2008 to 2013, a signal of progress in economic transformation, official data showed today.
There were 26,894 large high-tech manufacturing companies by the end of last year, accounting for 7.8 percent of all large manufacturing companies, up 1.3 percentage points from 2008.
They realized a profit of 723.37 billion yuan (US$118.23 billion) in 2013, up 165.5 percent from 2008, according to results of the latest national economic census published by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Their profit growth was 11.5 percentage points higher than the manufacturing industry average level.
Large high-tech manufacturing companies refer to those with annual revenue of 20 million yuan or more from their main business operations.
Source: Xinhua | December 16, 2014, Tuesday | Online Edition
CHINA has seen a surge of high-technology manufacturing companies and a spike in their profits from 2008 to 2013, a signal of progress in economic transformation, official data showed today.
There were 26,894 large high-tech manufacturing companies by the end of last year, accounting for 7.8 percent of all large manufacturing companies, up 1.3 percentage points from 2008.
They realized a profit of 723.37 billion yuan (US$118.23 billion) in 2013, up 165.5 percent from 2008, according to results of the latest national economic census published by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Their profit growth was 11.5 percentage points higher than the manufacturing industry average level.
Large high-tech manufacturing companies refer to those with annual revenue of 20 million yuan or more from their main business operations.
Keel
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No one can beat the Brits on the subject of "GDP adjustments": 
:
Drugs and prostitution to be included in UK national accounts
Contribution of drug dealers and prostitutes to the UK economy boosted figures by £10bn according to estimates
29 May 2014 20.13 BST
Drugs and prostitution contributed £10bn to the UK economy in 2009.
George Osborne famously declared "we are all in this together" when it comes to Britain's prosperity. The Office for National Statistics has now taken him at his word, adding up the contribution made by prostitutes and drug dealers.
For the first time official statisticians are measuring the value to the UK economy of sex work and drug dealing – and they have discovered these unsavoury hidden-economy trades make roughly the same contribution as farming – and only slightly less than book and newspaper publishers added together.
Illegal drugs and prostitution boosted the economy by £9.7bn – equal to 0.7% of gross domestic product – in 2009, according to the ONS's first official estimate.
A breakdown of the data shows sex work generated £5.3bn for the economy that year, with another £4.4bn lift from a combination of cannabis, heroin, powder cocaine, crack cocaine, ecstasy and amphetamines.
According to the estimates there were 60,879 prostitutes in the UK in 2009, who had an average of 25 clients per week – each paying on average £67.16 per visit.
There is also detailed data on drugs. The statisticians reckon there were 2.2 million cannabis users in the UK in 2009, toking their way through weed worth more than £1.2bn. They calculate that half of that was home-grown – costing £154m in heat, light and "raw materials" to produce.
The ONS will work in the coming months to bring the data more up to date. The figures will then be included in the broad category of household spending on "miscellaneous goods and services" alongside life insurance, personal care products and post office charges.
The more inclusive approach brings the ONS into line with European Union rules, and will eventually allow comparisons of the size of the shadow economy in different member states.
Joe Grice, chief economic adviser at the ONS, said: "As economies develop and evolve, so do the statistics we use to measure them. These improvements are going on across the world and we are working with our partners in Europe and the wider world on the same agenda.
"Here in the UK these reforms will help ONS to continue delivering the best possible economic statistics to inform key decisions in government and business."
The new elements will be published in the national accounts from September onwards, supplementing the more traditional measures of GDP including construction and manufacturing output. By comparison, the construction sector contributed around £90bn to the UK economy in 2009, and manufacturing £150bn.
The ONS said that in every year between 1997 and 2009 prostitution and illegal drugs boosted the economy by between £7bn and £11bn. Combined with other changes to the national accounts from September, £33bn or 2.3% will be added to the 2009 level of GDP, the ONS said.
Graeme Walker, head of national accounts for the ONS, acknowledged there were limitations to measuring the value of illegal activities to the economy, but said it was a useful exercise nevertheless.
"It's a model-based estimate but one that serves a purpose for the picture of the overall economy."
He said the ONS would attempt to "fill in the gaps" left by available studies but it would be impossible to measure illegal activities as accurately as other components of GDP. Other activities are measured using questionnaires but the response rate in the sex and drugs trades are unlikely to be high.
Alan Clarke, a UK economist at Scotiabank, said that although the government would not feel the benefit of illegal work in terms of income tax take, there would be a spending boost.
"A drug dealer or prostitute won't necessarily pay tax on that £10bn, but the government will get tax receipts when they spend their income on a pimped up car or bling phone."
Steve Pudney, professor of economics at the University of Essex, said he was sceptical about the methods used by the ONS to estimate the size of the drugs market.
"In my view, the ONS estimate of the size of the drug market is unlikely to be very accurate. It rests on some heroically large assumptions which would be difficult to test, and it also uses a measure of demand that is likely to understate systematically the true scale of drug use."
He added: "They are using a demand-side approach which loosely involves multiplying a survey estimate of the number of drug users by another estimate of the amount consumed by the average user.
"Average retail prices of drugs come from other sources – mainly police/customs/security service intelligence sources – and, multiplying this by the estimated demand, gives the size of the market in cash terms."
:Drugs and prostitution to be included in UK national accounts
Contribution of drug dealers and prostitutes to the UK economy boosted figures by £10bn according to estimates
29 May 2014 20.13 BST
Drugs and prostitution contributed £10bn to the UK economy in 2009.
George Osborne famously declared "we are all in this together" when it comes to Britain's prosperity. The Office for National Statistics has now taken him at his word, adding up the contribution made by prostitutes and drug dealers.
For the first time official statisticians are measuring the value to the UK economy of sex work and drug dealing – and they have discovered these unsavoury hidden-economy trades make roughly the same contribution as farming – and only slightly less than book and newspaper publishers added together.
Illegal drugs and prostitution boosted the economy by £9.7bn – equal to 0.7% of gross domestic product – in 2009, according to the ONS's first official estimate.
A breakdown of the data shows sex work generated £5.3bn for the economy that year, with another £4.4bn lift from a combination of cannabis, heroin, powder cocaine, crack cocaine, ecstasy and amphetamines.
According to the estimates there were 60,879 prostitutes in the UK in 2009, who had an average of 25 clients per week – each paying on average £67.16 per visit.
There is also detailed data on drugs. The statisticians reckon there were 2.2 million cannabis users in the UK in 2009, toking their way through weed worth more than £1.2bn. They calculate that half of that was home-grown – costing £154m in heat, light and "raw materials" to produce.
The ONS will work in the coming months to bring the data more up to date. The figures will then be included in the broad category of household spending on "miscellaneous goods and services" alongside life insurance, personal care products and post office charges.
The more inclusive approach brings the ONS into line with European Union rules, and will eventually allow comparisons of the size of the shadow economy in different member states.
Joe Grice, chief economic adviser at the ONS, said: "As economies develop and evolve, so do the statistics we use to measure them. These improvements are going on across the world and we are working with our partners in Europe and the wider world on the same agenda.
"Here in the UK these reforms will help ONS to continue delivering the best possible economic statistics to inform key decisions in government and business."
The new elements will be published in the national accounts from September onwards, supplementing the more traditional measures of GDP including construction and manufacturing output. By comparison, the construction sector contributed around £90bn to the UK economy in 2009, and manufacturing £150bn.
The ONS said that in every year between 1997 and 2009 prostitution and illegal drugs boosted the economy by between £7bn and £11bn. Combined with other changes to the national accounts from September, £33bn or 2.3% will be added to the 2009 level of GDP, the ONS said.
Graeme Walker, head of national accounts for the ONS, acknowledged there were limitations to measuring the value of illegal activities to the economy, but said it was a useful exercise nevertheless.
"It's a model-based estimate but one that serves a purpose for the picture of the overall economy."
He said the ONS would attempt to "fill in the gaps" left by available studies but it would be impossible to measure illegal activities as accurately as other components of GDP. Other activities are measured using questionnaires but the response rate in the sex and drugs trades are unlikely to be high.
Alan Clarke, a UK economist at Scotiabank, said that although the government would not feel the benefit of illegal work in terms of income tax take, there would be a spending boost.
"A drug dealer or prostitute won't necessarily pay tax on that £10bn, but the government will get tax receipts when they spend their income on a pimped up car or bling phone."
Steve Pudney, professor of economics at the University of Essex, said he was sceptical about the methods used by the ONS to estimate the size of the drugs market.
"In my view, the ONS estimate of the size of the drug market is unlikely to be very accurate. It rests on some heroically large assumptions which would be difficult to test, and it also uses a measure of demand that is likely to understate systematically the true scale of drug use."
He added: "They are using a demand-side approach which loosely involves multiplying a survey estimate of the number of drug users by another estimate of the amount consumed by the average user.
"Average retail prices of drugs come from other sources – mainly police/customs/security service intelligence sources – and, multiplying this by the estimated demand, gives the size of the market in cash terms."
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TaiShang
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Adds almost 1% to the economy. That's a huge elections selling point in multi-party democracies.
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Edison Chen
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No one can beat the Brits on the subject of "GDP adjustments":
Drugs and prostitution to be included in UK national accounts
Contribution of drug dealers and prostitutes to the UK economy boosted figures by £10bn according to estimates
29 May 2014 20.13 BST
Drugs and prostitution contributed £10bn to the UK economy in 2009.
George Osborne famously declared "we are all in this together" when it comes to Britain's prosperity. The Office for National Statistics has now taken him at his word, adding up the contribution made by prostitutes and drug dealers.
For the first time official statisticians are measuring the value to the UK economy of sex work and drug dealing – and they have discovered these unsavoury hidden-economy trades make roughly the same contribution as farming – and only slightly less than book and newspaper publishers added together.
Illegal drugs and prostitution boosted the economy by £9.7bn – equal to 0.7% of gross domestic product – in 2009, according to the ONS's first official estimate.
A breakdown of the data shows sex work generated £5.3bn for the economy that year, with another £4.4bn lift from a combination of cannabis, heroin, powder cocaine, crack cocaine, ecstasy and amphetamines.
According to the estimates there were 60,879 prostitutes in the UK in 2009, who had an average of 25 clients per week – each paying on average £67.16 per visit.
There is also detailed data on drugs. The statisticians reckon there were 2.2 million cannabis users in the UK in 2009, toking their way through weed worth more than £1.2bn. They calculate that half of that was home-grown – costing £154m in heat, light and "raw materials" to produce.
The ONS will work in the coming months to bring the data more up to date. The figures will then be included in the broad category of household spending on "miscellaneous goods and services" alongside life insurance, personal care products and post office charges.
The more inclusive approach brings the ONS into line with European Union rules, and will eventually allow comparisons of the size of the shadow economy in different member states.
Joe Grice, chief economic adviser at the ONS, said: "As economies develop and evolve, so do the statistics we use to measure them. These improvements are going on across the world and we are working with our partners in Europe and the wider world on the same agenda.
"Here in the UK these reforms will help ONS to continue delivering the best possible economic statistics to inform key decisions in government and business."
The new elements will be published in the national accounts from September onwards, supplementing the more traditional measures of GDP including construction and manufacturing output. By comparison, the construction sector contributed around £90bn to the UK economy in 2009, and manufacturing £150bn.
The ONS said that in every year between 1997 and 2009 prostitution and illegal drugs boosted the economy by between £7bn and £11bn. Combined with other changes to the national accounts from September, £33bn or 2.3% will be added to the 2009 level of GDP, the ONS said.
Graeme Walker, head of national accounts for the ONS, acknowledged there were limitations to measuring the value of illegal activities to the economy, but said it was a useful exercise nevertheless.
"It's a model-based estimate but one that serves a purpose for the picture of the overall economy."
He said the ONS would attempt to "fill in the gaps" left by available studies but it would be impossible to measure illegal activities as accurately as other components of GDP. Other activities are measured using questionnaires but the response rate in the sex and drugs trades are unlikely to be high.
Alan Clarke, a UK economist at Scotiabank, said that although the government would not feel the benefit of illegal work in terms of income tax take, there would be a spending boost.
"A drug dealer or prostitute won't necessarily pay tax on that £10bn, but the government will get tax receipts when they spend their income on a pimped up car or bling phone."
Steve Pudney, professor of economics at the University of Essex, said he was sceptical about the methods used by the ONS to estimate the size of the drugs market.
"In my view, the ONS estimate of the size of the drug market is unlikely to be very accurate. It rests on some heroically large assumptions which would be difficult to test, and it also uses a measure of demand that is likely to understate systematically the true scale of drug use."
He added: "They are using a demand-side approach which loosely involves multiplying a survey estimate of the number of drug users by another estimate of the amount consumed by the average user.
"Average retail prices of drugs come from other sources – mainly police/customs/security service intelligence sources – and, multiplying this by the estimated demand, gives the size of the market in cash terms."
True, that's why some states of America legalized marijuana consumption, more tax and GDP.
Keel
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Read the news article again please:
"Illegal drugs and prostitution boosted the economy by £9.7bn – equal to 0.7% of gross domestic product – in 2009, according to the ONS's first official estimate." ...
"Steve Pudney, professor of economics at the University of Essex, said he was sceptical about the methods used by the ONS to estimate the size of the drugs market."
The reporting appears that the UK is trying to include the estimated sizes of illegal prostitution and cannabis trading in their GDP calculation
By the same logic, will they also include the estimation of the values of other illegal activities like "human trafficking"; "black market arms deals"; "black market currency trading"; "printing fake money"; "illegal abortion" ...in their GDP calculation ?
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My-Analogous
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applesauce
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9.5 trillion for 2013 compared to (i think) 9.24 trillion
American_Millenium
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And then US fixed that
We were not at all responsible for what happened to Japan. The Soviets on the other hand failed partly due to America's pressure but mostly probably due to their military overspending. They were not integrated into the global economy so sanctions and diplomatic maneuvering would not have had the effect it does now.
Really, the Soviets failed because their economic policies and military spending combined lead to catastrophic failure. Spending 20-25% of GDP on your military (which produces 0% direct ROI) while at the same time running a planned economy is recipe for failure anywhere.
atatwolf
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China is using accounting tricks to cook the books. In the civilized world you would get jailed for doing that. In China it is a state practise. Eventually the stench will arise but only two fold and the market correction will cause not so nice things.
China Growth Goal May Be Met With Revised Data Belying Slowdown
Bloomberg NewsDec 14, 2014 1:01 pm ET
(Bloomberg) -- With the stroke of a pen, China may meet its 2014 economic growth target after all.
China’s statistics bureau is predicted to announce results of its third national economic census this month after a year’s worth of interviews and data collection from millions of businesses. The past two, published in 2009 and 2005, prompted additions to gross domestic product estimates as the value of services was revised higher.
This time around, 2013 GDP will be revised up by 1 to 3 percent -- as much as about $275 billion -- and 2014 GDP growth will be bolstered by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point, according to the median forecast of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
With national goals a fixture for China’s Communists, a recalculation could raise the chance of Premier Li Keqiang reaching this year’s 7.5 percent growth target. The leadership last week probably eased its objective for 2015, amid signs the pace of expansion weakened further this quarter.
“The government under Premier Li will use whatever means to achieve a 7.5 percent GDP this year,” said Liu Li-Gang, chief greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong.
Liu expects the revisions could add 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point to 2014 GDP growth and has increased his estimate from 7.2 percent to 7.5 percent on accelerated budget spending, stabilization in property and seasonal data effects.
China is grappling with a housing downturn that’s weighing on everything from steel and cement prices to rail-freight traffic and electricity output. The central bank cut interest rates for the first time in two years last month, and economists expect more monetary easing next year.
Nationwide Count
The national economic census is conducted about every five years to gather information on the manufacturing and services industries. Over 10 million businesses and about 60 million individual enterprises were visited early this year by about 3 million census takers, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
The nationwide review may help offset underrepresentation of China’s rapidly-expanding services industry. The past two censuses led to a 16.8 percent revision to 2004 GDP size and a 4.4 percent increase in 2008.
“Services sector businesses are mainly individuals or small enterprises, and the revised GDP will reflect this,” said Nie Wen, an analyst at Huabao Trust Co.
The sector, at 46.7 percent of the economy in the first three quarters, is up 1.2 percentage points from a year earlier. Services first passed manufacturing in value last year.
Adjustments to the NBS’s accounting method will also likely lead to revisions. Research and development spending will probably be included as investment instead of as a cost.
Accounting Changes
Another change that may boost the size of 2013 GDP, though not the 2014 growth pace, is a new calculation of the economic contribution from home owners’ accommodation. In the past, the NBS priced self-owned residency on historical costs, while the new method will value that based on estimated rental costs using current market rates.
The better services sector data and accounting method changes will boost the level of 2013 GDP by 8 to 10 percent, said analysts including chief economist Liang Hong at China International Capital Corp.
Economists including Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.’s Shen Jianguang, Haitong International Securities Group Ltd.’s Hu Yifan and ANZ Bank’s Liu said they have taken into account likely revisions in their 2014 growth forecasts.
Growth Target
Three economists surveyed expect the census could lead to a detraction from GDP growth this year, while two expect a negligible effect. Seven predicted an increase of 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point.
China announces a GDP target at the congress each March. This year, growth was set to be in the lower band of the about 7.5 percent target ahead of the revision.
China’s leaders are adjusting to a “new normal” of slower growth, according to the official Xinhua News Agency’s summary of an economic policy-setting meeting that ended last week. Even as the nation faces challenges to arrest a slowdown, growth is showing resilience and potential, giving the government plenty of room to maneuver, the statement said.
``China is using an upgraded methodology and the results should be taken seriously,'' Daniel Rosen and Beibei Bao at Rhodium Group wrote in a research note. ``Beijing is counting activity previously underestimated, and converging toward international best practice.''
Rosen and Bao said that the National Bureau of Statistics will likely revise the 2013 GDP level up by 5 to 10 percent.
The revised base, along with a 6 to 7 percent growth rate through 2020, will add tens of trillions of yuan to China's economy. ``Securing economic growth is no longer a valid excuse for stalling on reform,'' the analysts wrote.
Business: Washington Post Business Page, Business News
China Growth Goal May Be Met With Revised Data Belying Slowdown
Bloomberg NewsDec 14, 2014 1:01 pm ET
(Bloomberg) -- With the stroke of a pen, China may meet its 2014 economic growth target after all.
China’s statistics bureau is predicted to announce results of its third national economic census this month after a year’s worth of interviews and data collection from millions of businesses. The past two, published in 2009 and 2005, prompted additions to gross domestic product estimates as the value of services was revised higher.
This time around, 2013 GDP will be revised up by 1 to 3 percent -- as much as about $275 billion -- and 2014 GDP growth will be bolstered by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point, according to the median forecast of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
With national goals a fixture for China’s Communists, a recalculation could raise the chance of Premier Li Keqiang reaching this year’s 7.5 percent growth target. The leadership last week probably eased its objective for 2015, amid signs the pace of expansion weakened further this quarter.
“The government under Premier Li will use whatever means to achieve a 7.5 percent GDP this year,” said Liu Li-Gang, chief greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong.
Liu expects the revisions could add 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point to 2014 GDP growth and has increased his estimate from 7.2 percent to 7.5 percent on accelerated budget spending, stabilization in property and seasonal data effects.
China is grappling with a housing downturn that’s weighing on everything from steel and cement prices to rail-freight traffic and electricity output. The central bank cut interest rates for the first time in two years last month, and economists expect more monetary easing next year.
Nationwide Count
The national economic census is conducted about every five years to gather information on the manufacturing and services industries. Over 10 million businesses and about 60 million individual enterprises were visited early this year by about 3 million census takers, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
The nationwide review may help offset underrepresentation of China’s rapidly-expanding services industry. The past two censuses led to a 16.8 percent revision to 2004 GDP size and a 4.4 percent increase in 2008.
“Services sector businesses are mainly individuals or small enterprises, and the revised GDP will reflect this,” said Nie Wen, an analyst at Huabao Trust Co.
The sector, at 46.7 percent of the economy in the first three quarters, is up 1.2 percentage points from a year earlier. Services first passed manufacturing in value last year.
Adjustments to the NBS’s accounting method will also likely lead to revisions. Research and development spending will probably be included as investment instead of as a cost.
Accounting Changes
Another change that may boost the size of 2013 GDP, though not the 2014 growth pace, is a new calculation of the economic contribution from home owners’ accommodation. In the past, the NBS priced self-owned residency on historical costs, while the new method will value that based on estimated rental costs using current market rates.
The better services sector data and accounting method changes will boost the level of 2013 GDP by 8 to 10 percent, said analysts including chief economist Liang Hong at China International Capital Corp.
Economists including Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.’s Shen Jianguang, Haitong International Securities Group Ltd.’s Hu Yifan and ANZ Bank’s Liu said they have taken into account likely revisions in their 2014 growth forecasts.
Growth Target
Three economists surveyed expect the census could lead to a detraction from GDP growth this year, while two expect a negligible effect. Seven predicted an increase of 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point.
China announces a GDP target at the congress each March. This year, growth was set to be in the lower band of the about 7.5 percent target ahead of the revision.
China’s leaders are adjusting to a “new normal” of slower growth, according to the official Xinhua News Agency’s summary of an economic policy-setting meeting that ended last week. Even as the nation faces challenges to arrest a slowdown, growth is showing resilience and potential, giving the government plenty of room to maneuver, the statement said.
``China is using an upgraded methodology and the results should be taken seriously,'' Daniel Rosen and Beibei Bao at Rhodium Group wrote in a research note. ``Beijing is counting activity previously underestimated, and converging toward international best practice.''
Rosen and Bao said that the National Bureau of Statistics will likely revise the 2013 GDP level up by 5 to 10 percent.
The revised base, along with a 6 to 7 percent growth rate through 2020, will add tens of trillions of yuan to China's economy. ``Securing economic growth is no longer a valid excuse for stalling on reform,'' the analysts wrote.
Business: Washington Post Business Page, Business News
Calculating European GDP: Changing the scales | The Economist
Calculating European GDP
Changing the scales
How revisions will soon bulk up GDP
Revising how the US calculates GDP will not have a happy ending | Heidi Moore | Business | theguardian.com
and of course, this:
Turkey to revise per capita GDP amid income trap debates
Last edited:
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