A Split Within the Taliban?

[Luftwaffe]

what language do you understand truthseeker i told ya take your dogs taliban and NATO out of this region and all will be well...you don't get the point do ya?

 

[S-2]

The taliban control the ground they stand on-nothing more. They've yet to win ONE major military victory. The best they can claim is a draw with a severely beat-up but intact French paratrooper PLATOON.

All-Green, the "afghan taliban" are very much directed from the Quetta Shura. Last I checked, Quetta falls well within your boundaries. Second, Omar has made clear that there will be no negotiation with the current afghan gov't until ISAF WITHDRAWS.

It will, naturally, then be conducted at the point of a gun. There is no "D" for democracy in the Taliban lexicon so don't expect to see Omar out on the campaign trail-ever. All afghan taliban, nonetheless, have a way out by voluntarily disarming and declaring adherance to the afghan constitution.

Yes, there are onerous men in the current afghan gov't. So? A pashtu plurality would set that straight in elections, would it not? As to favor, the annual ABC/BBC poll taken on February 9 showed that the taliban pulled 7% approval in Afghanistan, lower than even foreign irhabists. Far, far lower than America in the low 60% range or even ISAF in the mid-50% range.

If disputed, there's nothing comparable available. As to CONTROL, I'm sick of asking people here to read and use their brains. They have none. If they did, one look at the ICOS map for 2008 would reveal that 72% is "HEAVILY CONTESTED". How that translates to taliban control is beyond me but it seems that a certain narrative shows resilience by virtue of obstinance-nothing more.

In truth, a SERIOUS look at that map reveals violent incidents and categorizes by severity. The actual incidents are centered on Helmand, Kandahar and east of Kabul. No surprise and hardly constituting 72% of the landmass.

People? Ah...nobody here has said a thing about that. If one considers that Kandahar and Helmand represent a goodly portion of the afghan pashtu population and then add in the Kabul-Jalalabad nexus, perhaps.

Finally-opium. 34 provinces in Afghanistan with 29 growing 8500 hectares and 5 growing 147,000 hectares- all in the south-Nimroz, Oruzgan, Kandahar, Farah, and Helmand (from lowest to highest). Three of the five abut Baluchistan. The other two or just north of those three provinces.

This afghan insurgency has been directed from sanctuary in Pakistan since 2002. Any suggestion otherwise is delusional and will be a non-starter in any serious discussion with any American. We've been attacked from your lands over and over again by Chechans and Uzbeks following the Konar river down from Chitral, Nazir, Bahadur, Rahman, and Omar's troops in S. Waziristan and Baluchistan. Canadian and British commanders know this and so do our commanders in the Korengal, Khost, Paktika, Paktia, Nangahar, and Nuristan.

It doesn't surprise me by the lack of serious thought given to Afghanistan from this board. Aside from obvious pre-occupation, the level of understanding here is sadly lacking and too reliant upon smug assumptions.

I encourage you to avail yourself of the ABC/BBC/ARD poll of Feb. 9, 2009. In particular question #18. As to validity, I'm of the mind that there is plenty of access to pashtu citizens in Jalalabad, Kandahar, and Helmand-at least sufficient to safely gather polling data.

Dispute as you will but at this point and with this amount of experience, these polls represent the best available data I've yet seen on afghan sensibilities. To indicate fairness, these polls show a degradation of support for America and ISAF since 2006. No surprise. Security has diminished.

That said, why haven't we seen a corresponding increase then for the taliban? Can poll results be so skewed to show a decline of our support but no increase to the taliban's? I think "yes" when security is the primary concern.

America and ISAF will not be leaving before Afghanistan requests such. How soon is that? Don't hold your breath.

 

[Hellfire]

How about you guys actually try to engage the Taliban in Afghanistan instead of shifting the blame, the last report i read made it clear that Taliban still control more than 50% of Afghanistan. I wonder why the Americans dont like to bring this topic up, i know nobody likes to accept their own failures.

why is it so difficult for you to understand counter insurgency operations?

wait and see what happens if there is a full blown confrontation b/w TTP and PA ...... will ask the same question of you .....

anyways now also why are you not able to stamp your writ in Swat/Buner/Bajaur?

 

[sob]

What all our friends in Pakistan have to understand that you can't Run with the Hare and Hunt with the Hounds.

Good Taliban or Bad Taliban are a very bad Oxymoron.

We in India have suffered with the Govt. first cosying up Bhinderwale in Punjab and later with the LTTE.

Same is with the US to counter the Russians they financed OBL and his merry brigade and now they are a pain in the ***.

 

[All-Green]

All-Green,

All the Afghani Taliban have to do is to agree to peacefully participate in the Afghan government. let them win by democratic means, not by violence. You say Karzai has no backing, but how do we know what backing the Afghani Taliban (Mullah Omar) has other than the force of his guns? Why can't the Pashtuns (Karzai is a Pashtun) participate peacefully? Or, are they really just irhabis who want to kill and dominate any Afghani that disagrees with their concept of Islam. I'm surprised you have so much sympathy for them when the way to peace and the removal of NATO forces is so easy. All they have to do is participate in the GoA and win in the elections.

First of all, my analysis and assessment is from global perspective in which i would have to consider pre US invasion era Afghanistan government as the Taliban one.

I have no love lost for Taliban and indeed have no sympathy for Taliban.
I do not agree with many aspects of their ideology and many of the decisions they made.
However, i am not a big fan of Northern Alliance either and for that matter all the other war lords who were shedding blood...to me they were all different warring factions in the post Afghan Jihad era and all were supported by guns!

Taliban became the dominating party and could be called the government of Afghanistan since they were controlling Afghanistan and consisted of Afghans...If Northern Alliance had taken over it would also have been with force and not by vote, so had NA won the civil war i would call them the government of Afghanistan...does not show my sympathy to either party...i am just establishing the prevalent situation before and after US invasion.

You should realize by now the US invasion has sort of given Taliban more sympathizers than before, it is not uncommon for nations to unite under foreign invasion.
As a consequence of US overt action on Afghanistan the Afghans for the most part will not love the US.

Let us assume that US had an utterly pathetic and unpopular regime in power.
If the world felt threatened by US government and came to US to remove them i am sure that even if 90% of the people disliked their government they would not have tolerated foreign attempts to remove him, a sovereign nation cannot tolerate external interference.
Right or wrong has nothing to do with it.

Afghans are just like any other people...they will fight amongst each other and go to any extremes to dominate their rivals but in face of foreign interference they will find a new and common enemy, this need not be the picture today but do realize that it can happen in future just as it has surely happened before.

Russia was not stupid, did not lack for resources and had a plan...it got involved because it had a supportive government in Kabul and lots of intelligence assets to help keep Afghanistan pro Russia...still look what happened...this can happen in such plans...

Military power alone cannot bring stability...i know that most of you will disagree but even though i dislike their ideology and decisions, Mullah Omar could have been negotiated with before the US invasion...even if he was ultra harsh he again and again requested world to help Afghanistan and provide aid so there was leverage in terms of mutual benefit...maybe the US aid with proper negotiations could have helped more instead of immediate invasion which will not quell the unrest.

US is a superpower, it expected Mullah Omar to submit immediately but you should have known Afghans by now...he was no different...his rigid and harsh demeanor could have softened with the diplomacy but US took it as an insult that Taliban were demanding evidence and wanted to try Osama in Afghanistan...now i understand that to US Taliban would have been mere insects to crush if they blocked the US revenge for 9/11...but my point is that it was highly unlikely that Taliban supported the 9/11 terrorist attacks in any form...Osama could do it on his own and who were the alleged bombers...not Afghans but Arabs...Osama was the harbinger of Doom in the Muslim world and even Taliban would have become his target if US got into negotiations with them and also started throwing in some aid in the form of food, clothing and medicinal supply to tilt the Taliban towards US.
This could have been much better to garner support and provide a ray of light to shed militancy in the region.

US did not pursue the excellent links and relationship it had with Afghans in the past, had the US exerted its influence this way then even Taliban would have been better dealt with within few months and Al Qaeda would have been isolated.

However if US needed to place its military and intelligence assets in Afghanistan in large numbers regardless of Al-Qaeda then and only then do i see a need to attack Afghanistan without at least giving negotiations a realistic chance.

At the end of the day i can comment based on my knowledge and perception and i know that just as my assessment can be flawed so too can any human make a flawed decision and that includes Bush and Omar both.

 

[S-2]

"Same is with the US to counter the Russians they financed OBL and his merry brigade and now they are a pain in the ***"

This will need proof or a retraction as there's ZERO evidence of OBL's support from America.

He never needed our money. That he had plenty of his own was his cachet to play militant with the taliban. They sucked his cash to let him tag along.

We aided serious mujahideen who could put large numbers of men in the field and were bent on fighting. OBL's arabs fought but their numbers were inconsequential.

His cash wasn't and that was ALWAYS his ticket.

 

[All-Green]

"Same is with the US to counter the Russians they financed OBL and his merry brigade and now they are a pain in the ***"

This will need proof or a retraction as there's ZERO evidence of OBL's support from America.

He never needed our money. That he had plenty of his own was his cachet to play militant with the taliban. They sucked his cash to let him tag along.

We aided serious mujahideen who could put large numbers of men in the field and were bent on fighting. OBL's arabs fought but their numbers were inconsequential.

His cash wasn't and that was ALWAYS his ticket.

S-2,

That is what i am trying to say, OBL was needed by Taliban due to his economic assistance and could have been isolated with other means as well without attacking Afghanistan directly and giving OBL much more potential recruits/cannon fodder in the entire central and South Asia.
Once Afghans would have been getting US and world aid you would have had much more leverage with Taliban to ensure that slowly and surely your concerns could have been addressed.
What i am saying is that US assessment was also flawed since it was aware of the traditional setup and mentality prevalent in this area.

I did not want to quote a personal experience but let me tell you of the mentality of the people whom you are trying to woo...

When i was a kid my father got some days off and we went from Parachinar to Lahore...en route we stopped over and as my father was fixing something in the boot, 4 armed Tribals walked past by him and seeing me and him in a different attire commented loudly and with some disgust...Farangi...now farangi is a term used for foreigners and Westerners in particular...somewhat like a White Man term.
My father was angered by the comments but of course did not do anything stupid as we were alone and he told me that such comments should be expected as they do not see us as their own...that incident to me reflected one thing...these Tribals will see anyone who is slightly different as an outsider...and if that outsider is a genuine Farangi Army in their land like US, then god help him if he wants to be seen as a friend...

So you see my point is not to look like a know it all and give you a new spin on the problem...i just want you to know that your relevant state departments had known the area and its people and had closely worked with them before...they did not do their homework properly and came up with a plan which did not factor in such strong prejudice reserved for foreigners and the tribal affiliations which would block the objective (capture Osama and his collaborators) if you urgently attacked and landed your Farangi military in their land...i do not see it the best way to deal with Al-Qaeda and that is my honest assessment.

However if US military presence was a goal in itself then that is a separate thing and would have been the controlling parameter. In that case disregarding all the above approaches and apprehensions would have been the thing to do for US.

 

[Jihad]

what language do you understand truthseeker i told ya take your dogs taliban and NATO out of this region and all will be well...you don't get the point do ya?

I think the Americans unmasked and unveiled an enemy hidden within our nation aswell.
Sooner or later we'd collide anyways.
Do you want people who chop off heads or harass girls going to school etc in your country?
No, neither do I.
Yes I do have a feeling that if the Americans/NATO actually never went into Afghanistan, we'd be left alone for the most part and we wouldn't have much trouble in our northern region.

But if you look at it from a more reasonable and human side, the people in Afghanistan are mostly relieved that the Taliban is gone, they are free people now, they still have to live in fear, but Afghanistan is rebuilding, it's going to take time.
Meanwhile, you should blame our government for not having any control over our northern region, it has been known as a "lawless" place for decades, it's our land, and it's time we claim it back and make it a real part of Pakistan.
Those mullahs think they are in charge, they've always been full of themselves, thinking they rule wherever the government isn't present.
Well it doesn't work that way, you know it aswell, it's time to fight these bastards untill they all die, burn in hell or either lay down their weapons.

It's a cancer, a disease, it has affected us so much, it's time to eradicate it now once and forever, so that Afghanistan, Pakistan and hopefully India too will have other things to bicker about instead of terrorists blowing things up or murdering just to make their stance clear.

 

[All-Green]

I think the Americans unmasked and unveiled an enemy hidden within our nation aswell.
Sooner or later we'd collide anyways.
Do you want people who chop off heads or harass girls going to school etc in your country?
No, neither do I.
Yes I do have a feeling that if the Americans/NATO actually never went into Afghanistan, we'd be left alone for the most part and we wouldn't have much trouble in our northern region.

But if you look at it from a more reasonable and human side, the people in Afghanistan are mostly relieved that the Taliban is gone, they are free people now, they still have to live in fear, but Afghanistan is rebuilding, it's going to take time.
Meanwhile, you should blame our government for not having any control over our northern region, it has been known as a "lawless" place for decades, it's our land, and it's time we claim it back and make it a real part of Pakistan.
Those mullahs think they are in charge, they've always been full of themselves, thinking they rule wherever the government isn't present.
Well it doesn't work that way, you know it aswell, it's time to fight these bastards untill they all die, burn in hell or either lay down their weapons.

It's a cancer, a disease, it has affected us so much, it's time to eradicate it now once and forever, so that Afghanistan, Pakistan and hopefully India too will have other things to bicker about instead of terrorists blowing things up or murdering just to make their stance clear.

The Mullah needs to be relieved of their self perceived right to dictate anything to the state and subjects.
They need to be relieved of the heavy burden to start their own private volunteer armies.
A lot of strong action and tough decisions need to be taken and sadly there is no one like Musharraf (even if many of his decisions are disliked) who can at least dare to take on the Mullahs and their supporters; many of whom are overt or covert supporters of Taliban.
This fifth column support needs to be neutralized with very clever political maneuvering and long term strategy.

Pakistan has a constitution and an elected battalion of parliamentarians...for God's sake realize your potential strength and take on this menace with at least a coherent strategy.

Lets address the issues which created Taliban but let us not give them any legitimacy in any capacity whatsoever...
Let us plant our feet firmly on this motherland and let us take on all who are ravaging it for their pleasure!!!

 

[S-2]

"However if US military presence was a goal in itself..."

Public sentiment demanded that we stomp the taliban. They had about 24 hours +/- to get their act together. We knew that would be near impossible and really didn't care.

We didn't expect our SOF/CIA to do so by themselves.

We DID expect that we'd, one way or another, change the paradigm in Afghanistan. We'd concluded it's trajectory was simply unacceptable.

We're more or less flexible with what follows. We aren't at all happy with the Afghan gov't, per se, and any serious watcher of our foreign policy would know that. Our congress is livid at the restrictions of women that still strike such resonance among it's leaders.

Having said all that, we KNOW that this is an upstream cultural battle that will require ages.

That works for us to a great extent...

Beyond, you're really looking at how Afghanistan integrates into our larger goals. In any case, the taliban, by our perspective, had to go as constituted.

Thanks.

 

[BaburCM]

"However if US military presence was a goal in itself..."

Public sentiment demanded that we stomp the taliban. They had about 24 hours +/- to get their act together. We knew that would be near impossible and really didn't care.

We didn't expect our SOF/CIA to do so by themselves.

We DID expect that we'd, one way or another, change the paradigm in Afghanistan. We'd concluded it's trajectory was simply unacceptable.

We're more or less flexible with what follows. We aren't at all happy with the Afghan gov't, per se, and any serious watcher of our foreign policy would know that. Our congress is livid at the restrictions of women that still strike such resonance among it's leaders.

Having said all that, we KNOW that this is an upstream cultural battle that will require ages.

That works for us to a great extent...

Beyond, you're really looking at how Afghanistan integrates into our larger goals. In any case, the taliban, by our perspective, had to go as constituted.

Thanks.

Spot on my master. Whatever is convenient and fits our interests should be pursued without any questioning. Anyone being a thorn should be removed with indiscriminate force and destruction. The Taliban were a pain in our neck and we had to remove this tumour. We did it successfully and now we must continue to remove this cancer from its root!

 

[Hellfire]

"However if US military presence was a goal in itself..."

Public sentiment demanded that we stomp the taliban. They had about 24 hours +/- to get their act together. We knew that would be near impossible and really didn't care.

We didn't expect our SOF/CIA to do so by themselves.

We DID expect that we'd, one way or another, change the paradigm in Afghanistan. We'd concluded it's trajectory was simply unacceptable.

We're more or less flexible with what follows. We aren't at all happy with the Afghan gov't, per se, and any serious watcher of our foreign policy would know that. Our congress is livid at the restrictions of women that still strike such resonance among it's leaders.

Having said all that, we KNOW that this is an upstream cultural battle that will require ages.

That works for us to a great extent...

Beyond, you're really looking at how Afghanistan integrates into our larger goals. In any case, the taliban, by our perspective, had to go as constituted.

Thanks.

ah spoken truly and correctly


national goals have to be achieved. irrespective of the costs. I agree

 

[53fd]

why is it so difficult for you to understand counter insurgency operations?

wait and see what happens if there is a full blown confrontation b/w TTP and PA ...... will ask the same question of you .....

anyways now also why are you not able to stamp your writ in Swat/Buner/Bajaur?

First of all, Swat, Buner and Bajaur are three completely separate regions. Swat is in KPK, Buner is close to Swat in KPK as well, and Bajaur is in the Tribal Areas. There is a huge difference in the 'dynamics' of KPK and the Tribal Areas. KPK is completely under the control of the Pakistani government. Some of the Tribal Areas are not in control of the Pakistan government, some are, and some are 'tightly contested' areas. Swat and Buner have been completely cleaned up, Swat has the only Ski resort in Pakistan called Malam Jaba, and people have been skiing there over the past few days, with all the snow there and stuff. You think they'd be able to ski there if the Taliban were controlling the region?

 

[seekers]

A split within the TAliban?

No ground effect has been seen that justify that they have been split, but they have certainly split this nation.