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A smart 'Gweilo' view of the ground.

ThatDamnGood

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Need to get more them over.

In Hong Kong $1.8 Million Gets You 400 Sq. Feet, And Other Observations On The Biggest Bubble Ever, From Dylan Grice | zero hedge

Rather than addressing each of the points in the post, I will provide my take on the situation here:

JAPAN: I lived there for a few years when I was a kid. In the past 20 years Japan has regressed. You get off the plane in Tokyo and you feel like everything is a struggle, why does my phone not work here, where is an ATM that operates in English, why do I have to pay $200 to get into town, why does my hotel concierge not understand anything except what is in the concierge field manual.

There is an exciting part of Japan. It is the young creative crowd. But they are not driving the economy which is basically struggling to protect legacy wealth.

SHANGHAI: Shanghai is the most exciting city on planet Earth. Everything that is cool and cutting edge is in Shanghai. You have never been to a real entrepreneurial city until you have arrived in Shanghai. You feel the vibe in the streets. Shanghai people consider themselves Shanghai people first and foremost. For a reason. They work hard and play hard.

Shanghai people also have a battery on their shoulder about Hong Kong. They don't understand why Hong Kong should be the financial capital and not Shanghai. The simple reason is most foreign bankers in HK are afraid to move to Shanghai.

Pudong is the section of Shanghai that is the financial center. It has been massively over built with commercial office space. The joke is "so many offices, who do they have sitting them?" I would say long term China will move the center of financial gravity to Shanghai, despite what the foreign bankers think.

You ask a typical Chinese person what is serious investing and what is for fun. The answer will be real estate comes first. That is the Asian mind set. You buy a flat and rent it out while you are still living in a rented flat. Once you have paid off the loan on the first flat, you move in and buy another one to rent out. This mentality exists irrespective of whether there is a bubble.

HONG KONG: Hong Kong has three kinds of people, financiers, industrialists and tycoons of various sizes and working people. Currently the financier cockroaches are all over Victoria Island. This drives the price of rental properties sky high. Successful mercantilists live very expensive homes. They always have. Hong Kong has a finite amount of residential space. When you read about the super crazy residential deals, they are primarily in hideous buildings built primarily for rich mainland Chinese who want a showpiece place in Hong Kong. When the crash comes, those will be the first to go.

Which brings me to the working people and middle class. There a plenty of them and they live in very small but comfortable apartments about the size of a NYC 1 bedroom but with 2 bedrooms. They either own or rent for about USD 1000-1500 per month. Many live in 1 bedrooms the size of a NYC studio. They follow the buy one and rent another strategy I described above. They can live very comfortably because produce and other necessities are not expensive because they are produced relatively close by. They also never have to worry about medical bills because medical here is dirt cheap, readily available and highly competent. Cars are really just for show because the mass transportation here is the best in the world. The education system (public and private) is also well run.

Most important, Hong Kong is safe. So if you happen to live in a "low rent" neighborhood, you are still safe and don't have to worry about crack dealers and muggers.

Perhaps the most important thing to remember, is the cultural gestalt that pertains to cycles and risk. The great YIN and YANG. This is Asian culture. Everyone knows what goes up will inevitably come down. For them timing is everything. Let me tell you, Asians know how to scrimp, save and get by on what Americans consider scraps. You may have heard this. It is absolutely true. Their tolerance for hardship dwarfs our own. They also know how to dump real estate and move the whole clan into one flat. They literally have gold and cash hidden in their walls and mattresses because they still retain the subliminal refugee mentality (be ready to run on a moments notice).

They are much better prepared for the financial apocalypse than we Americans, primarily because they know it can come.

GENERAL: There is constant talk here about the flood of "gweilo" (white ghost) money. In fact, there is lots of that talk all over Asia. The general consensus is would can do without Bernanke Bucks, please keep them in the US.

But that scumbag money printer and his banksta crew continue to export our currency over here to get a better return and like before it will evaporate on a moment's Soros.

Everyone knows the only solution is to decouple, but it is not that simple.

When the bubble pops, and it will, there will be much anger directed at the good old USA. But the bottomline will be an even greater determination to decouple.


And as we continue in our chronic state of decline, you can bet on one thing for sure, there will be no quarter given by our new Asian overlords if and when that time comes.

Maybe I will take some pictures and post them up to give you an idea of what it all looks like.

WB7

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Shanghai people also have a battery on their shoulder about Hong Kong. They don't understand why Hong Kong should be the financial capital and not Shanghai. The simple reason is most foreign bankers in HK are afraid to move to Shanghai.

Shanghai will soon surpass Hong Kong in terms of total GDP.

As a side-note, I don't know why some Westerners in Hong Kong enjoy referring to themselves as "Gwai lo"... I doubt any Westerners who live in Shanghai refer to themselves as "Yang gui zi".
 
"Shanghai people also have a battery on their shoulder about Hong Kong. They don't understand why Hong Kong should be the financial capital and not Shanghai. The simple reason is most foreign bankers in HK are afraid to move to Shanghai."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tax tax tax: max 20% payroll tax, NO capital gain tax, NO sales tax, NO VAT, small government intervention (free capitalism at its best), if you have significant business investments and/or are rich, then there are very few tax heavens in the world can match Hong Kong to do business in. It also has stronger rule of law and what perceived to be a more open environment than mainland.
 
Shanghai will soon surpass Hong Kong in terms of total GDP.

As a side-note, I don't know why some Westerners in Hong Kong enjoy referring to themselves as "Gwai lo"... I doubt any Westerners who live in Shanghai refer to themselves as "Yang gui zi".


Well, a lot of Westerners in North China call themselves as 'Lao Wai'.
 
Well, a lot of Westerners in North China call themselves as 'Lao Wai'.

I don't know, I always considered Lao Wai to be a lot more "neutral" than Gwai lo. I suppose it doesn't matter, if they feel comfortable with calling themselves that, then who am I to say anything. :tup:

On topic: I've been to Japan, and I feel there is a lot of stagnation. Japanese consumers don't like to spend, and everything there is SO expensive. Japanese cities almost always rank as the most expensive cities in the world to live in.

Regarding the other point, of course I love Hong Kong... but I feel that Shanghai is getting stronger and stronger as time moves on. Shanghai is just growing so fast.
 
"Shanghai people also have a battery on their shoulder about Hong Kong. They don't understand why Hong Kong should be the financial capital and not Shanghai. The simple reason is most foreign bankers in HK are afraid to move to Shanghai."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tax tax tax: max 20% payroll tax, NO capital gain tax, NO sales tax, NO VAT, small government intervention (free capitalism at its best), if you have significant business investments and/or are rich, then there are very few tax heavens in the world can match Hong Kong to do business in. It also has stronger rule of law and what perceived to be a more open environment than mainland.

Wow.... the their building could be burning down and the bankers still won't leave their chairs with those kinds of tax rates....
 
Shanghai will soon surpass Hong Kong in terms of total GDP.

As a side-note, I don't know why some Westerners in Hong Kong enjoy referring to themselves as "Gwai lo"... I doubt any Westerners who live in Shanghai refer to themselves as "Yang gui zi".

Gwai isn't gwai to them. I see it as their way of assimilating themselves.
Hai lor, ngai gwai lor ma. Dim ji... . Loses any 'negativeness' that it once had and its disarming.

But its different everywhere. Yanks hates being referred to as Gaijin in the Japan. But the Chinese characters/kanji is just wai ti ren(full) or wai ren.
 
Gwai isn't gwai to them. I see it as their way of assimilating themselves.
Hai lor, ngai gwai lor ma. Dim ji... . Loses any 'negativeness' that it once had and its disarming.

But its different everywhere. Yanks hates being referred to as Gaijin in the Japan. But the Chinese characters/kanji is just wai ti ren(full) or wai ren.

You're right, I suppose it depends on the context. If they have lived in Hong Kong for a long time, then they are more likely to understand that.

Anyway I tend to avoid saying such things around Westerners, for the sake of being polite. :tup:
 
Northen Chinese are more polite to foreigners calling them "Lao Wai", Southern Chinese tend to call them devil or ghosts, Gweilo in Cantonese or "An Mo Gui" (red hair devil) in Minnang (Fujian, Hainan) dialets.
 
How is gwei lo white ghost. Shouldn't the word order to be the other way around, as in bai gui?
 
"Gweilo" in Cantonese is Male Ghost People, Lo is normally refer to male. Female whites are referred to as "Gwei Po", Female Ghost People.

I think bai gui (putunghua) or pak gwei is seldom used in Hong Kong, it is actualy quite racist.
 
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