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A shaky, trembling dragon

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angeldemon_007

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Napoleon Bonaparte, the French emperor is supposed to have said: “When China awakes, the world will tremble”. Today as the Arab world awakes, China is trembling. Indeed, Beijing is nervous, very nervous. It is quite apparent when one reads the Chinese press.
At the end of January, an article entitled Major Social Unrest Every Five Days in 2010 appeared, quoting a report on social unrest in China published by the Shanghai Jiao Tong University. The ‘Annual Report on China’s Crisis Management’ affirmed that every five days in 2010, there was a major incident of social unrest in the Middle Kingdom — a 20 per cent increase from 2009. While 60 major incidents were reported in 2009, it climbed to 72 in 2010. “Social unrest had spread throughout 29 provinces and cities (over 90 per cent), with most occurring in Henan, Beijing, and Guangdong. About 43 per cent of the incidents could not be resolved by the local governments and required intervention from upper levels of government to restore order.” Interestingly, 67 per cent of the incidents were made public thanks to Internet, mainly through private blogs.
The ‘flower revolutions’ began in Tunisia, rapidly spreading to Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world, giving an ‘example’ to resentful Chinese masses. While the leaders/dictators of the two first nations have already fallen, many others are hopefully on their way out. These upheavals did not amuse the leadership in Beijing. In China, when some protesters (one can’t call them dissidents) began to use the Internet to call for peaceful rallies in a dozen major Chinese cities, the regime had a panicky reaction. On the eve of the first rally, a meeting of the politburo was called by President Hu Jintao. It was decided to tighten the state control over the cyberspace and watch some ‘specific groups of people’, an ominous term targeting not only dissidents and human rights militants, but also environmentalists and all those who do not agree with the present regime.
According to official news agencies: “Provincial heads, ministry chiefs and senior military officials were summoned to attend the meeting” and all nine members of the standing committee were present.
Though the official agenda for the meeting was ‘to adjust (China’s) foreign policy’, the main objective was clearly to formulate strategies to avoid a West Asia situation. “(Hu) stressed that social management must be strengthened in order to ensure the CCP stays in power”, explained The Straits Times.
The president defined the meaning of ‘social management’: “Managing the people as well as serving them.” The Chinese leaders usually speak of ‘serving the people’ only, not ‘managing’ them. This new concept was to “maximise harmonious factors and minimise non-harmonious ones,” according to Hu Jintao.
To achieve this, it was decided amongst other measures to strengthen the control on Internet — the transmission of information as well as the ‘guidance’ of the public opinion; to halt all independent reports, commentaries, and discussions (including Internet threads) on the situation in West Asia; to strengthen work of filtering and managing blogs, microblogs, and discussion fora; to assure that media uniformly adhere to the standard texts of the Xinhua in reports or commentaries on West Asia; to strengthen the management of the migrant population, more specifically large groups of people; to strengthen the control over social entities (Falun Gong and other such groups are probably targeted); and, to nip social unrest in the bud.
Beijing’s response was extremely tough when an online campaign called for weekly rallies all around China. Robert Saiget in the Sydney Morning Herald reported on one of these rallies: “Hundreds of uniformed and plainclothes police smothered Beijing’s designated rally site on the Wangfujing shopping street, aggressively pushing away foreign reporters with cameras and briefly detaining several.”
According to the People’s Daily on February 21, Wu Banguo, a member of the all-powerful standing committee politburo of the CCP stated: “Based on China’s national conditions, (we) solemnly declare that we will not engage in a multi-party political system or in diversity of the guiding ideology. We will not pursue the ‘separation of powers’ and the bicameral system, or engage in federalism or privatisation of property.” In other words, the communist party will continue to keep its monopoly over the country. The politburo also decided to emphasise that the current turmoil ‘is plotted by the United States behind the scenes.’
Zhou Yongkang, the member in charge of national and public security confirmed that a national database containing basic information on the different strata of population would soon be set up. He also announced that an early warning system will be put in place to alert the authorities of any social grievances in order to diffuse possible incidents before they happen.
A few days later, Xinhua started to follow the new guidelines. It quoted from a Russian report ‘Black Hand Can Be Seen behind the Turmoil in the Middle East’ and accused the US to have started the Egyptian unrest: “The dramatic events happening in the Arab countries in recent weeks once again demonstrate that the United States has never observed the principle of not interfering in a sovereign country’s internal affairs”.
The report states: “The US gets rid of the ‘dictators’ from the list of its past friends in order to arrange newly ‘elected’ dictators. As long as it can help solve the problems facing the United States, the US State Department is willing to see crowds and blood in the squares belonging to other territories. Secretly starting a revolution from within is an ideal tool.”
It is perhaps time for Beijing to stop blaming the West for its own problems and look into the aspirations of the people of China. But nothing seems able to stop the politburo which further emphasised that ‘greater efforts to criticise and control microblogs should be made’. They even seem ready to partly shut down the Internet; in the meantime, regional party bosses were requested to “reduce reporting on any sensitive incident that might occur in your locale.”
It is a pity that the leadership is unable to see that a ‘democratic’ system, even if not perfect like in India (god knows that it is not perfect!) helps ‘managing’ the often-genuine grievances of the masses. But do the apparatchiks in Beijing still care for the ‘common men’ or are they just obsessed to keep the monopoly of the party over the nation?
The leaders in Beijing may be less corrupt than the Gaddafis or the Mubaraks, but the repression of the ordinary people’s aspirations is the same in China, in Libya or in Tunisia. This does not lead to stability and peace. One thing is sure, the world’s main rising power seems rather shaky and trembling. From this angle, the Middle Kingdom looks like a paper tiger. It seems obvious that in its dream of wild development, Beijing has forgotten to take the masses along.

Indian Defence Review
 
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Chinese govt is a lot more prepared to nipping the jasmine in the bud. And at least from outside, the Chinese don't seem to feel the resentment that Egyptians or Arabs felt.
 
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What's the thread starters opinions? Is this a load of Hot Air or are we poised for a worldwide economic meltdown?
 
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Its not about China's fall. It is about the insecurity that exists between government and people. Men... honestly!
 
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Ah, Indian Defence Review...

The same "think tank", that predicted China would collapse, due to the 2008 Credit Crunch.

The Fall of the Dragon - Indian Defence Review

Someone there must have been disappointed.

I wouldn't worry about it. It's for internal consumption. I would expect more of this type of "think tank analysis" for the next 20 years. It makes them feel better every time one of their satellite launches blows up in utter humiliation.
 
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Indian Defense Review is one of the half a dozen defense journals available in the general area of my university's library. I have to say the lunatic rantings inside are often quite entertaining. Sometimes I do wonder if that's intentional, i.e. if it's a plot to make China letting down her guard by presenting Indian military analysts as a bunch of paranoid conspiracy theorists.
 
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Chinese govt is a lot more prepared to nipping the jasmine in the bud. And at least from outside, the Chinese don't seem to feel the resentment that Egyptians or Arabs felt.

because:

1. The Chinese economy is much stronger, the daily life of the public is far better than those countries. It is also 4 times better than india.
2. There is no dictatorship in China, all top leadership will be replaced every 8-10 years. How many people served in the Jiang admin is still serving in Hu's admin? a couple maximum.
3. The Chinese government delivers results, not promise.

not rocket science.
 
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Indian Defense Review is one of the half a dozen defense journals available in the general area of my university's library. I have to say the lunatic rantings inside are often quite entertaining. Sometimes I do wonder if that's intentional, i.e. if it's a plot to make China letting down her guard by presenting Indian military analysts as a bunch of paranoid conspiracy theorists.

if you look at their country, the entire country is just in the similar situation.

their media is cooking up some China threat stuff, rather than focusing on the domestic issues facing all indians.
their industry basically doesn't exists, they have to import power generators from China to supply electricity to their people.
their Internet infrastructure/mobile infrastructure are entirely built by foreign companies. 100% reliance on foreign equipments.
their health care system is celebrating the fancy 60 years life expectancy of their citizens.

this is the real india, a backward developing country with multiple aircraft carriers but a $1000 GDP per capita.
 
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I wouldn't worry about it. It's for internal consumption. I would expect more of this type of "think tank analysis" for the next 20 years. It makes them feel better every time one of their satellite launches blows up in utter humiliation.

yes.

I also hope Singh or someone similar can be elected as their next PM. Basically they just talk, cheat each other, make promises to each other. Let's just face it, after the failed commonwealth game, after the Dec. fireworks, the entire world is laughing at india.

Is it india or indians' fault? I don't think so. The country is great, the people are great, the problem comes from the Singh regime.
 
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Its not about China's fall. It is about the insecurity that exists between government and people. Men... honestly!

Chinese government delivered results to its people. for example, with the terms of the current admin, they built 8000km high speed railway, significantly extended the coverage of our social security to almost everyone, tell me what kind of trust "exsists" between the Singh regime and its people?

tell me why the regime in new delhi refuse to invest more in education, health care, infrastructure?

tell me why the regime prefer to buy dead expensive weapons from foreign countries and receive kick backs, rather than spending it on education, health care, infrastructure?

an uprising from the poor is the only way to fix the problem in india.

---------- Post added at 08:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:13 AM ----------

What's the thread starters opinions? Is this a load of Hot Air or are we poised for a worldwide economic meltdown?

just another troll thread aimed to fuel nationalism.
 
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Indian Defense Review is one of the half a dozen defense journals available in the general area of my university's library. I have to say the lunatic rantings inside are often quite entertaining. Sometimes I do wonder if that's intentional, i.e. if it's a plot to make China letting down her guard by presenting Indian military analysts as a bunch of paranoid conspiracy theorists.

This is what they had to say about themselves.

Indian Defence Review (IDR) is recommended reading by the Army, Navy, and the Air Force headquarters for officers and is considered “country’s most prestigious defence publication”. It not only “prides itself on being a sober, pragmatic, mainstream magazine”, but is considered “a premier strategic affairs think-tank” that shapes policies in matters of security and defence industry. IDR won accolades as “India’s best known military publication”, and “the most impressive, useful and independent publication”.

About us
 
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I also noticed that the article was written by a French Free Tibet activist, Claude Arpi, but who better to assess and write about the strategic and military situation in India right?

claude_arpi_conf.jpg
 
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china fall into what? like libya fall into civil war? there are many libyan people escape from libya to egypt everyday, do india wellcome millions chinese refugees too?

china/dragon = CCP + 1.3 billions chinese people, china/dragon =/= CCP

what indian expect a fall of china? u doesnt expect 1.3 billions chinese people disappear or dont ask their government to fight for china interest anymore after CCP fall, change into US style democrazy, do u?

i can say the situation will largely remain the same even if china give up communism.
 
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