IbnAbdullah
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Salaam
So the Indians have revoked the article that gave special rights to J&K territory. The Indians seem to be celebrating like they've just conquered Azad Kashmir and some Pakistanis are reacting like Azad Kashmir has been conquered by India.
The reality is that not one inch of the LOC has moved. These articles weren't going to ensure that Kashmir was about to be liberated - they didn't for the last 70 years and they weren't likely going to for the next 70 as well.
What these articles actually did was the opposite of helping the Kashmir cause. They helped pacify the local population by giving them special rights - rather the illusion of special rights. As today Mahbooba Mufti has said that India has become an occupational force today. Today.
People are upset that it will help the Indians in changing the demographics of Kashmir. Like somehow we were ever going to win Kashmir through an election. India hadn't been winning by a small margin in the Kashmir elections from us and thus had been able to rule it - it was always a military occupation.
It would have to be won the same way that Azad Kashmir was won. That has not changed.
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However, that does not mean nothing has changed. The Kashmir territory was internationally recognised by - UN resolutions and all - to be a disputed territory. It still is. However, the Indian resolution doesn't change that one bit.
This will, however, legitimise the Kashmiri struggle to some degree.
More importantly - Nay, most importantly - it will help the separatist movement in Kashmir.
Pakistan supported both the Afghan movement and the Kashmiri movement - one managed to beat two superpowers whilst the other wasn't as successful. Reason was simple - and an open secret - the Kashmiris weren't really doing much 'struggling' in the Kashmir struggle.
The Kashmiris were comfortable - and they were satisfied. The struggled almost died out in the last decades.
Then came Modi and co- and their actions helped push minorities aside and you ended up with Burhan Wani. And now they have done this - and you even have GOI allies like Mahbooba Mufti saying Kashmir is under Indian occupation.
Now the Kashmiris will find themselves pushed into a hard corner with no illusions of 'special treatment' and being threatened with demographic change.
Now the newer generation will finally feel they are being invaded by Hindus (when the cow rakhshaks come). Then you will find that the movement for freedom will stand on its own feet.
Once the Kashmir struggle stands on its own feet - with a little help, the results will be much better this time around.
---
Another interesting point, is that they have divided it into three separate territories. I don't think that is anything that goes against Pakistan's interests. It implies an understanding by the GOI that is much better for Pakistan than what we currently have. Pakistan stands to gain not lose.
Add to this Trump's comment about modi asking for mediation. The Kashmir issue may be closer to a peaceful resolution with this than before.
But that is for another day.
The Indians have not conquered an inch more of Azad Kashmir. They weren't about to hold the plebiscite anytime soon so this move isn't going to, in reality, hurt Pakistani interest in Kashmir.
It will only help the Kashmir movement by removing the illusion of special rights.
This move has brought back the Kashmir movement from the brink. It will likely be much more effective because it will be local.
The division of Kashmir into three - especially the separating of the Muslim part - implies the Indians too fear something and wish to minimise the loss.
The Indians have essentially removed the legal cover from their control over Occupied Kashmir.
The kashmir issue may have moved closer to a solution agreed by both Pakistan and India because of this.
So the Indians have revoked the article that gave special rights to J&K territory. The Indians seem to be celebrating like they've just conquered Azad Kashmir and some Pakistanis are reacting like Azad Kashmir has been conquered by India.
The reality is that not one inch of the LOC has moved. These articles weren't going to ensure that Kashmir was about to be liberated - they didn't for the last 70 years and they weren't likely going to for the next 70 as well.
What these articles actually did was the opposite of helping the Kashmir cause. They helped pacify the local population by giving them special rights - rather the illusion of special rights. As today Mahbooba Mufti has said that India has become an occupational force today. Today.
People are upset that it will help the Indians in changing the demographics of Kashmir. Like somehow we were ever going to win Kashmir through an election. India hadn't been winning by a small margin in the Kashmir elections from us and thus had been able to rule it - it was always a military occupation.
It would have to be won the same way that Azad Kashmir was won. That has not changed.
---
However, that does not mean nothing has changed. The Kashmir territory was internationally recognised by - UN resolutions and all - to be a disputed territory. It still is. However, the Indian resolution doesn't change that one bit.
This will, however, legitimise the Kashmiri struggle to some degree.
More importantly - Nay, most importantly - it will help the separatist movement in Kashmir.
Pakistan supported both the Afghan movement and the Kashmiri movement - one managed to beat two superpowers whilst the other wasn't as successful. Reason was simple - and an open secret - the Kashmiris weren't really doing much 'struggling' in the Kashmir struggle.
The Kashmiris were comfortable - and they were satisfied. The struggled almost died out in the last decades.
Then came Modi and co- and their actions helped push minorities aside and you ended up with Burhan Wani. And now they have done this - and you even have GOI allies like Mahbooba Mufti saying Kashmir is under Indian occupation.
Now the Kashmiris will find themselves pushed into a hard corner with no illusions of 'special treatment' and being threatened with demographic change.
Now the newer generation will finally feel they are being invaded by Hindus (when the cow rakhshaks come). Then you will find that the movement for freedom will stand on its own feet.
Once the Kashmir struggle stands on its own feet - with a little help, the results will be much better this time around.
---
Another interesting point, is that they have divided it into three separate territories. I don't think that is anything that goes against Pakistan's interests. It implies an understanding by the GOI that is much better for Pakistan than what we currently have. Pakistan stands to gain not lose.
Add to this Trump's comment about modi asking for mediation. The Kashmir issue may be closer to a peaceful resolution with this than before.
But that is for another day.
---
Summary
The Indians have not conquered an inch more of Azad Kashmir. They weren't about to hold the plebiscite anytime soon so this move isn't going to, in reality, hurt Pakistani interest in Kashmir.
It will only help the Kashmir movement by removing the illusion of special rights.
This move has brought back the Kashmir movement from the brink. It will likely be much more effective because it will be local.
The division of Kashmir into three - especially the separating of the Muslim part - implies the Indians too fear something and wish to minimise the loss.
The Indians have essentially removed the legal cover from their control over Occupied Kashmir.
The kashmir issue may have moved closer to a solution agreed by both Pakistan and India because of this.
....
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