A Conversation on Pakistan’s Economy, Atif Mian, Princeton University

[_NOBODY_]

A Conversation on Pakistan’s Economy, Atif Mian, Princeton University​

Princeton University on Friday, April 15, 2022
Speaker: Prof. Atif Mian, Princeton University
Moderator: Zainab Amjad, MPA Candidate, Princeton University

Key Questions on Pakistan's Economy (timestamps)

00:01:28 Why is Pakistan behind its regional peers in growth?
00:06:55 What are the deeper causes of Pakistan’s chronic balance of payment issue?
00:13:23 Does Pakistan have a problem with elite capture?
00:15:46 What kind of policy solutions does Pakistan need to address its chronic balance of payment problem?
00:26:09 How can policy reforms be effectively implemented?
00:31:59 Q/A from the audience

@ghazi52 @araz @The Eagle @The Accountant @That Guy @Irfan Baloch @PanzerKiel @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Imran Khan @PAKISTANFOREVER @waz @Windjammer @WinterFangs @KaiserX @niaz @farok84 @AZADPAKISTAN2009 @MastanKhan @krash @FOOLS_NIGHTMARE @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Cookie Monster @Bratva @Foxtrot Alpha @Rafael @Rafi @Trango Towers @TNT @Indus Pakistan @Falcon26 @Norwegian @LeGenD @Iltutmish @notorious_eagle @Akh1112 @mingle @AZADPAKISTAN2009 @Tipu7 @Horus @Ark_Angel @SQ8 @Goenitz @messiach @TaimiKhan @SecularNationalist @farok84 @Blacklight @Meengla @Ahmet Pasha @White and Green with M/S @Dalit @ARMalik @Sainthood 101 @Zibago @Jango @untitled @Reichsmarschall @Bleek @Dual Wielder @Smoke @RescueRanger @Trango Towers @Asimzranger @FuturePAF @Imad.Khan @forcetrip @baqai @blain2 @khail007 @Wood @VCheng

 

[Goenitz]

So busy days... have to check 96 papers...

 

[Trango Towers]

So busy days... have to check 96 papers...

R u a teacher / lecturer?

 

[VCheng]

Key Questions on Pakistan's Economy (timestamps)

The issues with Pakistan's economy are well-known, as is the determination not to do anything effective to fix them. So, here were are, and here we will stay.

 

[_NOBODY_]

The issues with Pakistan's economy are well-known, as is the determination not to do anything effective to fix them. So, here were are, and here we will stay.

Sadly, things won't change as long as our elites remain incredibly unproductive.

 

[Mr.Green]

Atif Mian should better focus on advising the UK, US and Canadian governments about their economies as they are his sponsors. We have plenty of our own Muslim economists.

 

[VCheng]

Sadly, things won't change as long as our elites remain incredibly unproductive.

Unproductive they may be, but all it took to kick out the talented Mr. Mian was a mullah or three. What is far more sad that even the GMC could not resist that pressure.

 

[SD 10]

Atif Mian should better focus on advising the UK, US and Canadian governments about their economies as they are his sponsors. We have plenty of our own Muslim economists.

and than we have people like you

 

[Wood]

Nice video. The economist in the interview made 2 simple observations that any layman (who is not properly educated in economics) can easily realize by looking at basic macro economic data posted in this forum every day.

a) Pakistan's CAD is real problem. People who cheer GDP growth and exports under PTI keep mum when annual CAD is asked for. Pakistan's trade deficit soars, just like that in case of India. But India has a lot of FDI and FII coming in to balance the outflow of $. In case of Pakistan, this is very low and hence the problem. Pakistan should not celebrate 6% growth, but actually fear it for the BOP crisis that it may bring under the current structure of its economy. If it is too difficult or impractical to structurally change the economy, then Pakistan should take measures to attract a lot more FDI and FII. CPEC should bring FDI that are at risk to the investor, not loans that have to be paid back.

b) Divert tax spending to schemes that will directly contribute to export oriented growth. In the past few months, I've only read 1 post from a staff here that cited a gov. policy from PTI that directly addressed this idea. Not good enough for Pakistan to move quickly. This advise is good for all developing countries, not just Pakistan

 

[Goenitz]

R u a teacher / lecturer?

Asst Lect in a uni

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Atif Mian

I am no Atif Mian but even I figured this long time ago. And how this was so is simple. Think Mumbai. What comes to mind? That Indian cities labour and sweat is tangible in almost every Pakistani household whether in UK, Pakistan , USA etc. Alll those Bollywood flicks you see. This city has penetrated the global desi market. Now think Bangalore. That cities sweat and labour has footprint on the global IT market be it in USA, Europe etc. You get the drift right?

Now in Pakistan's context Karachi is touted as the greatest producer on planet earth. Funny thing is what does this city make and export? It has almost zero presence on the global market.

The city is typical example of rent seeker. A parasite that survives on gouging the export/imports of 220 million people. Sort of bhatta tax on steriods. Much of this then goes into non productive land specualtion - Bahria is good example.

Besides a few towns like Sialkot etc rest of Pakistani cities make nothing, do nothing but just seek rent. This is where the problem is. People blame the rural regions of he country. Wrong the real disease is manifested in the large cities which have become just parasites that live of the fat of the land. Literally.

Now for contrast look at Bangladesh. Chiitagong port or Dhaka are teeming with industrial units where millions of locals are busy making the worlds ready to wear garments. USA, Europe etc are awash with the sweat and labour of Bengalis working in Chittagong etc.

Why is Karachi not helping the world to dress? It is a port city? Instead the city is just rent seekers paradise. As long as this structural problem is not fixed Pakistan's problems will keep repeating themselves.

 

[Imad.Khan]

I am no Atif Mian but even I figured this long time ago. And how this was so is simple. Think Mumbai. What comes to mind? That Indian cities labour and sweat is tangible in almost every Pakistani household whether in UK, Pakistan , USA etc. Alll those Bollywood flicks you see. This city has penetrated the global desi market. Now think Bangalore. That cities sweat and labour has footprint on the global IT market be it in USA, Europe etc. You get the drift right?

Now in Pakistan's context Karachi is touted as the greatest producer on planet earth. Funny thing is what does this city make and export? It has almost zero presence on the global market.

The city is typical example of rent seeker. A parasite that survives on gouging the export/imports of 220 million people. Sort of bhatta tax on steriods. Much of this then goes into non productive land specualtion - Bahria is good example.

Besides a few towns like Sialkot etc rest of Pakistani cities make nothing, do nothing but just seek rent. This is where the problem is. People blame the rural regions of he country. Wrong the real disease is manifested in the large cities which have become just parasites that live of the fat of the land. Literally.

Now for contrast look at Bangladesh. Chiitagong port or Dhaka are teeming with industrial units where millions of locals are busy making the worlds ready to wear garments. USA, Europe etc are awash with the sweat and labour of Bengalis working in Chittagong etc.

Why is Karachi not helping the world to dress? It is a port city? Instead the city is just rent seekers paradise. As long as this structural problem is not fixed Pakistan's problems will keep repeating themselves.

Karachi was once the Pakistani Industrial capital. All major factories were in Karachi, and then 2 things happened, MQM and their bhattas & murders, and secondly the mis-management of the govts making is almost unfeasible to have factories in Karachi. So alot of them moved out and some of them moved to Bangladesh.

Atif Mian should better focus on advising the UK, US and Canadian governments about their economies as they are his sponsors. We have plenty of our own Muslim economists.

why are you so bitter against him? he hasn't said anything wrong.

 

[Norwegian]

a) Pakistan's CAD is real problem. People who cheer GDP growth and exports under PTI keep mum when annual CAD is asked for. Pakistan's trade deficit soars, just like that in case of India. But India has a lot of FDI and FII coming in to balance the outflow of $. In case of Pakistan, this is very low and hence the problem. Pakistan should not celebrate 6% growth, but actually fear it for the BOP crisis that it may bring under the current structure of its economy. If it is too difficult or impractical to structurally change the economy, then Pakistan should take measures to attract a lot more FDI and FII. CPEC should bring FDI that are at risk to the investor, not loans that have to be paid back.

Stop comparing Pakistan with India, Patwari
They are two very different economies. India has a huge export industry and thus despite high trade deficit, foreign money keeps pouring in its export industry, causing no bop crisis

Pakistan never tried to build export industries like you Indians have done in the state of Gujarat. Thus your solutions on Pakistan economy won't work despite your sincerity

Gujarat's export figures double in a year - Times of India

Gujarat has broken its previous records in exports. The state clocked exports of Rs 8.37 lakh crore in the financial year 2021-22 till February, while in the previous year the state's total exports were Rs 4.48 lakh crore. Exporters say when the data for March, which to be is released soon, is...

m.timesofindia.com

b) Divert tax spending to schemes that will directly contribute to export oriented growth. In the past few months, I've only read 1 post from a staff here that cited a gov. policy from PTI that directly addressed this idea. Not good enough for Pakistan to move quickly. This advise is good for all developing countries, not just Pakistan

These govt schemas never work in Pakistan because common mentality is import driven economics just like establishment happily imported American backed govt in Pakistan. No one in the country except establishment has the resources to jump start industrial revolution in Pakistan. Yet establishment money is parked in housing societies and other rent seeking businesses. Army run industries each year go in huge losses and are compensated by tax payers or through budget deficits that cause inflation

 

[Wood]

Stop comparing Pakistan with India, Patwari
They are two very different economies. India has a huge export industry and thus despite high trade deficit, foreign money keeps pouring in its export industry, causing no bop crisis
View attachment 845572
Pakistan never tried to build export industries like you Indians have done in the state of Gujarat. Thus your solutions on Pakistan economy won't work despite your sincerity

Gujarat's export figures double in a year - Times of India

Gujarat has broken its previous records in exports. The state clocked exports of Rs 8.37 lakh crore in the financial year 2021-22 till February, while in the previous year the state's total exports were Rs 4.48 lakh crore. Exporters say when the data for March, which to be is released soon, is...

m.timesofindia.com

Only a handful of Indian states export a respectable amount of goods and services. Plenty of other states still lag behind. As a result, India has net trade deficit. I'm not trying to patronize you when I compare India with Pakistan in this respect. Just keeping it real to the best of my understanding. Pakistan should find its own course to attract FDI and build reserves

 

[Ssan]

I actually don’t get the big fuss about Atif Mian- people seem to think he is some sort of genius or something- he is more an average economist if anything. I think PTI was pushing him in the beginning to cater for Ahmadi support. It sort of backfired in their face pretty horribly.

I also don’t really understand Pakistani economists that show up on tv shows. None of them that I have heard have broken the hard news to Pakistanis that they can either live in a developing, getting wealthier but more expensive country, or live in a cheap, stagnant country.

I put it down to the fact that most of these economists that speak publicly are also holding out for a public position in government and thus cater to our country’s political economy

Again don’t know what the big deal is here. Nothing he has said so far is even remotely interesting or novel