60m Indians to be without power by 2030: IEA

[Neo]

60m Indians to be without power by 2030: IEA ​

Thursday, November 08, 2007

LONDON: By 2030 around 60 million Indians could still be without power as the nation’s electrification drive lags its economic development, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

In its latest World Energy Outlook, the IEA said India needed to invest $1.25 trillion in energy infrastructure by 2030 and that more than three quarters of this investment should be in power infrastructure.

“Attracting investment in a timely manner will be essential if economic growth is to be sustained,” the IEA said. To date some 412 million people have no access to electricity in India. By 2030, that should fall to nearly 60 million as the electrification rate rises to 96 per cent from 62 per cent in 2005, according to the IEA’s reference scenario, or most likely energy forecast.

Only in its high growth scenario would all households have access to electricity. According to its reference scenario, total electricity generation in India reached 699 terawatt hours in 2005 and rises to 2,774 terawatt hours in 2030.

Per capita electricity generation at 639 kilowatt hours in 2005 was more than four times lower than the world average and comparable with that of Vietnam and Mozambique. Coal, which produces high volumes of carbon emissions, is the dominant fuel in India’s electricity generation, accounting for more than two-thirds of total electricity produced and heavy dependence is forecast to continue.

To make matters worse, India’s coal-fired plants are among the least efficient in the world, although efficiency rates are expected to improve and India has joined international efforts to speed up the development of carbon capture and storage technologies.

It is also seeking to develop nuclear generation, which does not result in any carbon emissions, and has an ambitious target of raising nuclear generation capacity to 20 gigawatts by 2020 and 40 gigawatts by 2030. Earlier targets for nuclear generation have not been met.

60m Indians to be without power by 2030: IEA

 

[Always Neutral]

I think more like 100 million. The populist politicians will never be able to reform this vote bank sector in their lust for power for eg free power to farmers both rich and poor. Very radical steps will have to be taken to reverse the trend.

Regards

 

[rajputna_rifle]

I think more like 100 million. The populist politicians will never be able to reform this vote bank sector in their lust for power for eg free power to farmers both rich and poor. Very radical steps will have to be taken to reverse the trend.

Regards

We need the nuclear power in very short time. Some politicians say for 20,000 MW power we shouldn't compromise. But that figure is for today, after 10 years that would needed to be increased to 125,000 MW power only nuclear. If we want reduce the green house gases, then we would be needing more power.

Nuclear deal is more important than anything today.

 

[Bull]

Invest in power sector company stocks, or reliance power fund.

 

[su-47]

someone should shove this report in the face of the commie b@st@rds in india who barked against the nuclear deal. Unless these commie leaders are willing to install a giant hasmter wheel and run inside it to generate the necessary electricity, they should shut the hell up and let the nuclear deal proceed.

 

[Neo]

Invest in power sector company stocks, or reliance power fund.

I agree.
Also private investements should be encouraged, same is being done in my country.

 

[Flintlock]

Nuclear deal is especially important because we need to reduce dependence on coal.

The effects of global warming are not going to make things any easier in the next 50 years.

 

[aryan2007]

I think if the planned investment and privatisation(that shall take care of the theft) takes place things will be much better like the NEP 2005 + 78500 MW (11th 5 yr plan) addition in the next 5 years..
but my main grouse is that electricity in India is one of the World's highest which will be a dampner; and if state run thefts and transmission losses will be MASSIVE..

 

[solid snake]

South Asia seems to be a very energy hungry place.

In my opinion Pakistan and India should research solar technology. If that takes off, these two countries could have so much excess energy we might be exporting to China

 

[aryan2007]

South Asia seems to be a very energy hungry place.

In my opinion Pakistan and India should research solar technology. If that takes off, these two countries could have so much excess energy we might be exporting to China

India has around 100-150,000 MW of untapped hydroelectric power potential... most of which is in the troubled or hilly areas like Arunachal Pradesh, Kashmir, HP etc.. but after what happened to Narmada INdian govt has developed cold feet...

Solar tech is very expensive and unfeasible at the moment.. per unit price is 2-3 times.. and the Ministry of renewable energy's budget is woefully short nor is there a clear indication if India wants to go the Solar way though India has enough Solar potential even after assuming low efficiency , to sustain exponential increases in energy requirements...


Thorium is again an unproven tech and its success is not guaranteed.. + after signing the nuke deal it will be on the back burner if it is not already.. but if this succeeds bye bye to the rest...

India is already big on wind power at the moment.. though not the level of some EU countries.. Indian companies have already bought foreign wind power gen companies..

But I strongly feel India should stick to Thermal power as India has massive reserves of Useless Coal(perfect for thermal power generation) and Natural gas(top 10-15 world reserves IMO) and both are cost effective .. which is the primary requirement as India's high electricity cost make India a less competitive destination for power hungry industries unless they have captive power plants...

Nuclear --> if the nuke deal goes through then Nuclear can be a major contributor as well.. though it will take at least a decade for these projects to function and the supply of fuel is again under NSG...

India is already a top 10 countries when it comes to power gen capacity, production and consumptionLet's hope the 75000-80000 MW of promised power happens in the next 5-10 years and we have power for all by 2012 and give a solid impetus to gdp and industrial growth + help our dream of becoming a developed superpower..

 

[Black Stone]

I have heard about this problem in India.

But what is the main cause? is it the government policies direction that is incorrect?.

 

[aryan2007]

I have heard about this problem in India.

But what is the main cause? is it the government policies direction that is incorrect?.

In one word resp State govts

The problem is not because of policies but because of a lack of political will on the part of state govts..they are responsible for supplying electricity...
For example in states like Punjab and Haryana all Villages are electrified and there is very rare load shedding In cities like Bombay there has not been an electricity cut in the past few decades where as for example Orissa or UP many of the villages do not have the electricity and even if they are electrified they get power for a few hours in a day if they are lucky and if the thieves do not steal the wires, transformers etc...
(UP-Reliance-Mayawati issue is also a very good example of infighting resulting in stalling of vital power projects)

So the onus here is on the state government and the internal relationships amongst the various state govts and their elec boards(as some states produce excess etc..) + there are some minor issues of national grid networking and at times lax attitude of central govt owned power gen companies..

THough with privatisation things have changed for the better..

 

[Flintlock]

THough with privatisation things have changed for the better..

Privatization will hardly change anything. The rich will get better power, and the poor will never be able to pay for it.

imo the only way to solve the power crisis is to make the farmers pay...which means make them richer...which ain't happening...

 

[aryan2007]

Privatization will hardly change anything. The rich will get better power, and the poor will never be able to pay for it.

Most of the poor as it is never pay.. that is why theft is high, so are state subsidies and consequentally state debts...

People of J and K get almost uninterrupted power and that too for free and so do VVIP areas.. these guys should not be given power I say they are a burden to the economy...

Pricing mechanism is fixed by the govt. so private players can't make killing and most of the power in INdia is generated by govt so private players can't make money here too... the issue is of reducing production costs by getting in private companies to produce power cheaper and at full steam... + Privatization will help improve efficiency increased responsibilty better services lesser t&d losses lesser thefts.. so we will get the best out of our system...

imo the only way to solve the power crisis is to make the farmers pay...which means make them richer...which ain't happening...

why is that?? India has sufficient power but 30% of it is lost whether in transmission or by theft by slum dwellers in urban areas or by rogue industries..

and where is the power crises?? we are generating enough + we are already doubling our capacity to become a country with the third largest power capacity... the issue is of getting this power at an acceptable rate to the people...

Farmers never get any electricity no wonder that there have been successive droughts even in a fertile area like MP.. they didnt get power when they wanted it.. I think a farmer will be willing to pay double of what we are paying in the city if he gets power when he needs it most instead of relying on costly generator produced power... (9-10 rs per unit as opposed to around 5-6/unit we have to pay as opposed to 2rs americans and chinese pay)


majority of Farmers in India can never become rich with their meagre land holdings esp with India acceeding to WTO and bowing to US pressure
Farmers should be given uninterrupted power, water at competitive/cheap rates and even free I say.. this will improve our productivity and make our agro more commercial and competitive...

The power crises exists because of stupid govts and lax admin... these guys should reduce the rate of power and increase the output
more power more economic output greater gdp more money...