5G in 2020 – will Pakistan leapfrog or stay behind?

[艹艹艹]

With the advent of 3G and 4G services, Pakistan has already been witnessing an information technology revolution that has enabled hundreds of startups to develop and build businesses. PHOTO: FILE

LAHORE: The telecom users in Pakistan will enjoy seamless connectivity with over 30 times more speed than the current 4G technology as the world’s fastest and most technologically advanced fifth generation (5G) internet technology is poised to enter the market in the next few years.

Slated for launch in 2020, the 5G technology will offer data speeds of up to 1 gigabyte (GB) per second and during trial as high as 10GB per second.

Pakistan’s 3G/4G users doubled to 29.53 million in FY16

While mobile data consumption across the world may be rising, the advent of 5G will transform the possibilities of what smartphones and other mobile devices are capable of achieving.

The next generation technology will use the ‘millimetre wave’ radio spectrum. Higher frequencies, like this, are capable of carrying a significant amount of data, although more research is needed before this technology hits the market in 2020.

It is still not certain which countries will take the lead in launching the 5G technology, however, experts say South Korea and China are expected to be on the front followed by Japan and the United States.

While 5G will be an extension of 3G and 4G, it is expected to be dramatically different. 5G will be incredibly fast, in fact a lot faster than the existing technologies, but this is only one side of the story.

5G also has the potential to open up new avenues for integrated smart cities, self-driving cars, star wars-inspired hologram phones and even autonomous drones.

According to a report of the World Bank, a 10% increase in high-speed internet connections leads to a rise of 1.3% in economic growth. This means that by connecting 327 million people around the world with high-speed internet, the global gross domestic product (total size of the world economy) can be boosted by $1 trillion.

Pakistan’s LTE speeds one of the slowest in the world

For developing countries like Pakistan, such endeavours can positively contribute to ensuring sustainable and inclusive growth and might be Pakistan’s best bet towards poverty reduction and increased productivity. The million-dollar question remains, “Will developing countries, like Pakistan, leapfrog ahead or be left behind, as the world is attempting to enter the fourth industrial revolution?”

Companies at the forefront

The technological giants at the forefront of introducing the 5G technology are China Mobile, Nokia, DoCoMo, Huawei, Samsung and Ericsson.

The world’s most superior internet technology will provide virtually unending broadcast data in gigabits. 5G technology is fully compatible with the previous generations including 4G, 3G and 2G. It will be empowered to provide uniform, uninterrupted and smooth services across the globe.

5G in Pakistan

Minister of State for Information Technology and Telecom Anusha Rehman has recently indicated that 5G technology will be introduced in Pakistan by 2020. This has been a welcome announcement and China Mobile, according to media reports, has expressed its interest and asked the PTA to allow it to use 5G spectrum on a trial basis.

Reports suggest that China Mobile has completed first phase of the 5G programme in China, where it tested new wave forms and key technologies.

3G/4G users up 3.74%, but growth slowing

China Mobile and Huawei have also showcased 5G 3.5GHz prototype, 5G above 6GHz high-band prototype, 5G network slicing solutions, 5G smart car use case solution along with other 5G innovations in the Mobile World Congress in Shanghai.

It is expected that Zong, a China Mobile company, will be looking to initiate tests of the prototypes already developed and being conducted in China.

With the advent of 3G and 4G services, Pakistan has already been witnessing an information technology revolution that has enabled hundreds of startups to develop and build businesses around these technologies.

5G, which will focus on the ‘Internet of Things’, will enable a technological revolution of a different kind, where an entire digital ecosystem will be woven around people’s lives through the internet.

Let’s hope that Pakistan is part of the 5G revolution and is included in the first group of global operators to test the new technology for commercial use in the near future.

 

[Muhammad Omar]

With SRG-1 Cable From Oman And Fiber Optic Cable From China Under CPEC (work already underway) Pakistan can catch up

Also Pakistan signed MoU to get Fiber Optic from Tajikistan

 

[Providence]

One thing which you guys are forgetting is the "willingness to pay" for such high speed internet and "feeling the need" for such a thing 24x7.

The problem with leapfrogging is, investment done is huge while the market is not mature enough to absorb the innovation leading to service seeming to be "ahead of time".

 

[Bouncer]

One thing which you guys are forgetting is the "willingness to pay" for such high speed internet and "feeling the need" for such a thing 24x7.

The problem with leapfrogging is, investment done is huge while the market is not mature enough to absorb the innovation leading to service seeming to be "ahead of time".

Technology has been driving application and "willingness to pay". Please remember that Pakistan is a market of 200M people. Even if 1% of the population adopts a new technology; that means you'll have 2M subscribers.

Some observers had doubts about 3G/4G as well (Pakistan moved to these technologies few years back). But subscriber growth and consumption exploded.

 

[Providence]

Technology has been driving application and "willingness to pay". Please remember that Pakistan is a market of 200M people. Even if 1% of the population adopts a new technology; that means you'll have 2M subscribers.

Some observers had doubts about 3G/4G as well (Pakistan moved to these technologies few years back). But subscriber growth and consumption exploded.

Please there is a world of difference between 5G speeds and 3G speeds. The jump between no mobile internet to a 3G was hugely disruptive which is not so in case of jump from 3G speeds to 5G. This is called marginal change and is used extensively in making business decisions.

Above is 3G segment growth rate per month in pakistan.

Also, you have to factor in one thing is, people who are using 3G will switch to 5G but the same amount of 2G users might not switch to 3G (check above stats as an indicator) . Consequently, what you will end up is more or less the 3G user segment divided between 3G and 5G subscriptions.

@waz @DESERT FIGHTER @Shamain

 

[Hyde]

Pakistan's 4g is for name sake... The 3G connection in UK was faster than the 4G service provided in Pakistan. The 4G in my opinion is when the users are constantly getting at least 30-40mbps of speed.

Forget about 5G for now... let them really provide 4G service first

 

[Benign Persona]

the thing i like about 4G here in China is that its very cheap i use 4g on my phone all the time i am out and in pakistan i cant even afford 2G. i dont know now but a year ago it was damn expensive. and here in China i dont have any pakage i simply recharge in the beggining of the month and start using 4G, cost me around 800 rupees a month for all the calls, messages and internet.

 

[Hyde]

the thing i like about 4G here in China is that its very cheap i use 4g on my phone all the time i am out and in pakistan i cant even afford 2G. i dont know now but a year ago it was damn expensive. and here in China i dont have any pakage i simply recharge in the beggining of the month and start using 4G, cost me around 800 rupees a month for all the calls, messages and internet.

True, phone packages in Pakistan are so expensive especially when you count the tax factor from every top up.

In UK, I have unlimited minutes, unlimited text messages, 16GB of 4G data for £20. I could get unlimited class, texts and 5GB data for £15 (and £10 if used cashback). But in Pakistan I used to top up 500 rupees after every 2-3 days and the Internet service was not satisfactory. Mobile packages are cheaper in UK compared to Pakistan

 

[Kao Boy]

What all Cities can support 4G at the moment? 5G is in testing faze in Japan at this point in time!

 

[shah1398]

Minister of State for Information Technology and Telecom Anusha Rehman has recently indicated that 5G technology will be introduced in Pakistan by 2020.

As transition from 3G to 4G was in quite small time so 5G shud not be a big problem as a couple of OF projects are already in full swing. Also the proposed satellite launch by Pak-China for CPEC is a big boost for the efforts towards 5G.

 

[Bouncer]

Please there is a world of difference between 5G speeds and 3G speeds. The jump between no mobile internet to a 3G was hugely disruptive which is not so in case of jump from 3G speeds to 5G. This is called marginal change and is used extensively in making business decisions.
Above is 3G segment growth rate per month in pakistan.

Also, you have to factor in one thing is, people who are using 3G will switch to 5G but the same amount of 2G users might not switch to 3G (check above stats as an indicator) . Consequently, what you will end up is more or less the 3G user segment divided between 3G and 5G subscriptions.

Hi, we already had EDGE on all operators so it wasn't a case of no mobile internet to 3G. I was part of a consulting company that advised one of the larger telcos here in pre-bidding and roll out phases (and was involved in a few other similar markets). In a market like Pakistan the major issue was that of the cost associated with upgrading end user handsets (operators do not offer/push handsets like EU/USA etc). But within as of late last year, subscriber growth had crossed five times our original estimates. Pricing and bundling of offers, advertising, fast rollouts, cutthroat competition etc were the main reasons.

5G is years away. Nobody can safely predict what end user applications will be driving consumption in Pakistan (or any other similar market) at that time. Based on my experience with 3G launch here, it is not too far fetched to assume that we'll see a similar growth once we get to 5G.

the thing i like about 4G here in China is that its very cheap i use 4g on my phone all the time i am out and in pakistan i cant even afford 2G. i dont know now but a year ago it was damn expensive. and here in China i dont have any pakage i simply recharge in the beggining of the month and start using 4G, cost me around 800 rupees a month for all the calls, messages and internet.

In UK, I have unlimited minutes, unlimited text messages, 16GB of 4G data for £20. I could get unlimited class, texts and 5GB data for £15 (and £10 if used cashback). But in Pakistan I used to top up 500 rupees after every 2-3 days and the Internet service was not satisfactory. Mobile packages are cheaper in UK compared to Pakistan

Bhai jan with GBP 20 (PKR 2700) you can get WAY more data, voice and SMS. Maybe you were using PAYG (without any bundle/offer).

Taxes are way too high here, something like 24.24% on a recharge and then 19~ GST and 14% AIT so that is a reason. But you still can't compare a high ARPU market like the UK with Pakistan. Lower price points in fact killing the operators here.

 

[Hyde]

Bhai jan with GBP 20 (PKR 2700) you can get WAY more data, voice and SMS. Maybe you were using PAYG (without any bundle/offer).

Taxes are way too high here, something like 24.24% on a recharge and then 19~ GST and 14% AIT so that is a reason. But you still can't compare a high ARPU market like the UK with Pakistan. Lower price points in fact killing the operators here.

didn't understand you fully but I was just giving an example of my package. If I talk about other packages then you can also get unlimited calls n texts for less than 7 pounds

 

[Menace2Society]

When I stayed in Malaysia and Thailand I was getting 55 gig download speed on 4g in most parts of the country.

This should be bare minimum for Pakistan before you can look at 11g or 12g or 99g Honestly just get up to modern day standard of living. Nothing bugs me worse is lack of network and shitty download speeds.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Still best internet is the one in Cafe , and it is free

 

[Genghis khan1]

One thing which you guys are forgetting is the "willingness to pay" for such high speed internet and "feeling the need" for such a thing 24x7.

The problem with leapfrogging is, investment done is huge while the market is not mature enough to absorb the innovation leading to service seeming to be "ahead of time".

People are already paying more in Pakistan than in US. While considering the size to population ratio, Pakistani population is much more concentrated.