2020 is nearly over ... so what can we expect in 2021 for PLA watchers?

[Figaro]

possible china will buy Ka-52 or Mi-28nm...?

No

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

China's geo-position means 096 is nowhere as important as the next Chinese ICBM on land.

The sea area around China are too shallow, the average depth of Bohai is only 30 meter or so, impossible to accommodate large subarmines.

For east sea, not much better.

So the US will have a very easy job to spot China's large SSBNs there.

The only place which is deep enough for large SSBN is south China sea, but then the SLBM will require to have much larger range to cover the US than land-based ICBMs, kind of render SSBN pointless.

Unless we take Taiwan and use its as a base, SSBN will always come serve a secondary role in China's nuclear arsenal.

China's SSBN will be mainly based in the South China Sea, and the JL-3 with a longer range and larger payload than the Trident D5 will serve this purpose.

With China's increasing strength in the naval projection and ASBM, the USN will have troubles to threaten China's SSBN.

And no need to regard the USN as some sort of imperial army from star wars, and half of their navy already got crippled by the coronavirus. And they cannot hold a candle against China in the Asia-Pacific.

 

[samsara]

In Rick Joe's latest article on the PLA Navy (PLAN) plan, the part on the submarine things is of great unknown... while OTOH the huge expansion facility at Bohai is pretty real. Therefore one just needs to think it over what the PLAN will do in submarine things. By nature, these kinds of stuffs are having a high degree of secrecy, thus no much to see... but it is also impossible to think that such great investment will be wasted and sitting idly... he he he the MSM-version of "Ghost Cities" in military field,,, or the CNN-version of the Ghost Metro Station in Chongqing I believe there will be plenty of PLAN's SSN & SSBN in years to come, it's just a matter of How and When they'll let the world know...

* * * * *

The aforementioned nuclear submarine production line at Bohai has largely reached completion, however recent high quality satellite photos irrefutably demonstrate that another new submarine assembly hall is being constructed in the southern part of the site. This new southern hall appears to be a similar length to the recently finished eastern hall, and will feature four sets of rail tracks of the 7.34m gauge – appropriate for nuclear attack submarines rather than ballistic missile submarines. Notably, the spacing between these four tracks is greater than the tracks at the eastern hall, lacking the secondary 13.55m gauge option, suggesting this new southern hall might be dedicated for more efficient attack submarine production. Nevertheless, in terms of new assembly floor area, this new southern hall represents an expansion of at least two-thirds compared to the existing eastern hall.

The rationale for such an expansion in nuclear submarine assembly space at this new facility, before the first submarine has even been launched from their line, can only be interpreted in a few limited ways.

Whether the PLA Navy will see a similar large-scale procurement of nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers in future is not known, but the newly finished (and still expanding) nuclear submarine facility at Bohai, and the demonstrated two carrier-capable shipyards might be worth considering.

Chinese Navy (PLAN) News & Discussions

A Russian blogger posted following picture with some info, and iirc, previously some member already posted the pic here but without any info. Translated from Russian: Облик четвертого китайского авианосца: dambiev — LiveJournal The look of the fourth Chinese aircraft carrier The official...

defence.pk

 

[zectech]

On my twitter feed

https://twitter.com/x/status/1344277055928676354

 

[Figaro]

On my twitter feed

https://twitter.com/x/status/1344277055928676354

In a poll Global Times initiated on Friday, the most votes, more than 4,200 or about 14 percent, chose the Y-20 large transport aircraft as the top star weapon in the world in the year of 2020.

I don't think we can deduce much from this article ...

 

[zectech]

In a poll Global Times initiated on Friday, the most votes, more than 4,200 or about 14 percent, chose the Y-20 large transport aircraft as the top star weapon in the world in the year of 2020.

I don't think we can deduce much from this article ...

No certainty about what, how many and when.

The report also said that between 2021 to 2025, China could procure more Type 054A frigates, Type 052D destroyers, Type 055 large destroyers, Type 071 amphibious landing ships and Type 075 amphibious assault ships

There is mention of 054B.

Citing an anonymous insider, The Diplomat magazine reported on Friday that the Type 054B frigate, a newly developed warship reportedly equipped with an integrated electric propulsion system and more advanced than the Type 054A, could "see movement" in 2021.

I am happy to hear of possibly more 054As.

 

[Figaro]

No certainty about what, how many and when.

The report also said that between 2021 to 2025, China could procure more Type 054A frigates, Type 052D destroyers, Type 055 large destroyers, Type 071 amphibious landing ships and Type 075 amphibious assault ships

There is mention of 054B.

Citing an anonymous insider, The Diplomat magazine reported on Friday that the Type 054B frigate, a newly developed warship reportedly equipped with an integrated electric propulsion system and more advanced than the Type 054A, could "see movement" in 2021.

I am happy to hear of possibly more 054As.

The Global Times article is quoting Blitzo's report in the Diplomat ... I believe he was referring to Pop3.

 

[kungfugymnast]

Once again, I never said the H-20 will completely replace the H-6, just like the B-2 cannot with the B-52 in your analogy.

Whether H-20 will be flying wing or large stealth fighter bomber is still unconfirmed as they have yet to get past drawing boards. My guess is the H-20 will be large long range fighter bomber powered by 4x WS-15 engines capable of carrying 40,000lb internal payload with ferry range over 6,000nm. It won't be flying wing because it is too complex to build and only US has the technology at the moment. No point building slow cumbersome maneuverability bomber that can't defend itself.

 

[White and Green with M/S]

Whether H-20 will be flying wing or large stealth fighter bomber is still unconfirmed as they have yet to get past drawing boards. My guess is the H-20 will be large long range fighter bomber powered by 4x WS-15 engines capable of carrying 40,000lb internal payload with ferry range over 6,000nm. It won't be flying wing because it is too complex to build and only US has the technology at the moment. No point building slow cumbersome maneuverability bomber that can't defend itself.

its already confirmed that H-20 is the flying wing design by various sources, and this not a fighter bomber but strategic bomber like Tu-160/Tu-22M3

 

[kungfugymnast]

H-6 is just like B-52. B-1B, B-2, and B-21 also can't replace B-52.

B-52 is still in service today because of its range and fuel efficiency. B-1B has all the capabilities except range to match the B-52G/H. That's because B-1B is smaller 136ft vs B-52G/H 160ft having smaller fuel tank as its concern was to overcome Soviets air defence systems. B-1B could replace all B-52 if US SAC don't mind paying for the fuel. B-2 and B-21 are stealth interdiction strategic bomber with different roles.

H-6 is in fact obsolete bomber that it is still flying today mainly due to no ability to produce bomber yet. A bomber with maximum payload of 20,000 lb is considered poor looking at other active service bombers such as Tu-26, Tu-160, B-1B, B-2, B-52. Russia still flying the Tu-95/142 Bear mainly because of budget issue and cheap maintenance.

 

[LKJ86]

 

[Figaro]

B-52 is still in service today because of its range and fuel efficiency. B-1B has all the capabilities except range to match the B-52G/H. That's because B-1B is smaller 136ft vs B-52G/H 160ft having smaller fuel tank as its concern was to overcome Soviets air defence systems. B-1B could replace all B-52 if US SAC don't mind paying for the fuel. B-2 and B-21 are stealth interdiction strategic bomber with different roles.

H-6 is in fact obsolete bomber that it is still flying today mainly due to no ability to produce bomber yet. A bomber with maximum payload of 20,000 lb is considered poor looking at other active service bombers such as Tu-26, Tu-160, B-1B, B-2, B-52. Russia still flying the Tu-95/142 Bear mainly because of budget issue and cheap maintenance.

Even with the H-20 in production, I still see the H-6 being produced or being upgraded ... the H-20s are simply too expensive and will be limited in quantity. As such, the H-6 is still necessary to fill the bomber gap.

 

[samsara]

亚洲特快：军工井喷十年后，咱们的念想还有啥？ (2020年12月31日)

2020年今天就要过去啦，新年之夜，咱们来看看2021年有些什么新玩意正在进行，但可能还没到能公布的节点吧。毕竟这是以后几年，咱们的念想

GuanchaNews观察者网 (means The Observer)

ASIA EXPRESS: Ten years after the military boom, what else do China want?

The 2020 is going to be over. On the New Year's Eve, let's see what new things are going on in 2021, but it may not be the time yet to announce them. After all, this is merely our idea for the next few years

Partially translated transcript (just a minor portion):

There's always a chain reaction all over the world. There are many seemingly unrelated events, but in fact, the combination of far reaching things.

• From a distant moment, in 1973 the fourth Middle East War triggered the oil crisis. It brought great changes to the Cold War.

• The impact of the 2008 economic crisis (or better known “Global Financial Crisis” aka. “Lehman Brothers Moment”) is even more profound

Now let's embrace the great development after 2010.

In this year of 2020, the impact on the world will be even more long-term. This scene was in the middle of this year's epidemic, the Western countries are at a loss. In front of the world, the weak side of the “Free World” has been widely opened for all to see.

There has been a feeling in the Western world for a long time that it is their system that is the beacon of mankind. However, in this epidemic crisis they have been showing a serious problem of the “systemic failure”. The logic of emphasizing the “check and balance” in facing the virus that ignores the political preaching. It seems so fragile.

China has successfully overcome the epidemic. The economic and social life is quickly returning to the right track. It shows the vitality of the Chinese society, and the advantages of the system. And, it's all pressing in the US, the achievements under the “New Cold War” policy. That makes more sense. The world is beginning to have realization against the US “dictates”. Doesn't seem to mean getting “kicked out of the league”, “isolated by the world”.

At the end of this year, the trade agreements between China-Japan and China-EU have been signed successfully. This means that the US will use either “hard power” or “soft power”. Or “smart power”? Nonetheless, either way can not interrupt China's continued development. Or exclude China from the global economy. The China-EU reached an agreement covering the comprehensive, balanced and high level investment. This is the most significant achievement in 2020.

Military matters start at [01:52] However, at the end of this year, the presenter wanna investigate along with you. It's something that we're doing right now. But at least in 2021, things that may not have had time to blossom and bear fruit. They are the areas of the Chinese military technologies. There is still a long way to go, China's military fans for years to come learn about the “mindfulness” of constant attention.

First, let's talk about the year of 2020. At the China's largest shipyard, the large segments are increasingly taking shape, this is a large warship built by the block building method. That's the Type 003 aircraft carrier that attracts people's attention. Of course, it is precisely because the total segment has been close to closure. There are a lot of speculation and analysis about this type of aircraft carrier. It's also getting denser... judging from the current construction of the carrier, it's a highly probable event that the total segment closure begins in 2021, it's just whether or not it can be tested in the water, it's hard to say at the moment. To be sure at least, the 003 can only be added to the Navy after the 2021. From what's known so far, the 003 main engine with the oil-fired steam turbine... (02:51)

I don't think that I wanna continue this, but I leave it here just in case someone is willing to carry on the unfinished work...

 

[kungfugymnast]

Even with the H-20 in production, I still see the H-6 being produced or being upgraded ... the H-20s are simply too expensive and will be limited in quantity. As such, the H-6 is still necessary to fill the bomber gap.

Bomber is always expensive and it depends how useful it is. It looks like H-20 development is waiting for WS-15 engines so most likely it will look more like 6000nm long range supersonic stealth large fighter bomber hopefully able to pull 5G better than B-1B maneuverability. Being a fighter bomber with powerful AESA radar with large ECM pod would make it more useful than B-1B and B-2 that are just pure bomber without much use, can't perform air patrol. Flying wing B-2 & B-21 with poor maneuverability, slow due to bad aerodynamic without air to air capability is useless against country with superior satellites, advanced defence system & stealth fighters such as China. China would have spotted B-2 that attempt to get into ALCM range on satellite and sent fighters to search and get into visual range to intercept. If the H-20 is large fighter bomber being the first in the world, it could intercept B-2 way further from ALCM launch range & destroy any ALCM launched from B-2.

 

[White and Green with M/S]

Bomber is always expensive and it depends how useful it is. It looks like H-20 development is waiting for WS-15 engines so most likely it will look more like 6000nm long range supersonic stealth large fighter bomber hopefully able to pull 5G better than B-1B maneuverability. Being a fighter bomber with powerful AESA radar with large ECM pod would make it more useful than B-1B and B-2 that are just pure bomber without much use, can't perform air patrol. Flying wing B-2 & B-21 with poor maneuverability, slow due to bad aerodynamic without air to air capability is useless against country with superior satellites, advanced defence system & stealth fighters such as China. China would have spotted B-2 that attempt to get into ALCM range on satellite and sent fighters to search and get into visual range to intercept. If the H-20 is large fighter bomber being the first in the world, it could intercept B-2 way further from ALCM launch range & destroy any ALCM launched from B-2.

Bombers don't need to have agility and maneuverability to survive, in fact most air to air fights in past or present or in future does need a maneuverability for survival in air to air combat because of SRAAM and BVR have a maneuverability/agility that beyond the human tolerance, so basically first line of defense against SRAAMs and BVRAAMs is electronic warfare systems not maneuverability or agility of the bombers and fighter jets