2013 China problems (My feelings living in China from 2011-2013)

[shuttler]

ONe have to understand the structure of the Chinese economy before they shiiit about bubbling this or bubbling that

like those foreign ignoranmous fools who dont have a clue and lazy to do researches and forget the key characters of the housing loan structures in China

Majority of E Asians are the most conservative in world - who are characterised by high savings and bank deposits, prudent expenditure which all are virtues to weather averse economical outlooks

 

[Audio]

64 million empty flats @ a generous provision of FMV average of ￥3 million each = ￥192 trillion
after 50% ~60% down say 50% leaving a loan exposure of ￥96 trillion

How to finance that balance?

An average income of Chinese household with 2 above （+16%）average bread earners is about￥100K （per capita - imf = ￥85,000 pa for 2 people）

Can they afford to buy a ￥1.5 million flat？

It depends on the downpayment and monthly instalments

Assuming the down payments are paid, For a 7% pa mortage interest I think they can arrange a housing loan with monthy fixed P+I payment for 20 years @ monthly household outlay of about
￥5~6K per month They will have a rather comfortable disposable income of about 40~50% per month.

64 million flats for a family of 5 = 320 million folks

we have this target:

China’s middle class to reach 48% in 10 years

Is that "bubble" a big worry? I dont think so!

shuttler, average pay isn't 100.000 yuan let's sift through the fog that you sow:

Beijing tops the list of employees' salary with an average monthly pay of 4,672 yuan ($730) among the 23 provinces and cities that recently published the statistics, chinanews.com reported Friday.

China's 2011 average salaries revealed |Economy |chinadaily.com.cn

Top average monthly pay is 4,600 yuan. In a district that is richest anyway. So, if an average pay cannot be 100.000 in a top paying district, your model is all wrong.

Here's a bit more of the same:

China Gross domestic product per capita U.S. dollars 6,075

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects-IMF

While i appreciate your math, nevertheless, i feel it's more apt to take an example from the real world-there's 30% downpayment + credit for 40 years-mortgage obligations will eat up 70% of disposable income:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/20/chinas-housing-slaves-need-lifetime-to-pay-off-mortgages/

Now, don't get me wrong, housing slavery is everywhere, it's one of the best ways how to keep poor people poor perpetually.

 

[cnleio]

In China average monthly pay is ￥4,000 ~ ￥5,000 , for a Chinese family (both husband and wife all have the jobs) could reach average monthly pay ￥8000 ~ ￥10,000.

I think it belongs to a another questinon, buying house before marrage or after marrage? Coz 2012 China governmnt released a Housing Policy: the bank loan for a family not an individual. It means the boy and girl each has one chance to enjoy the same low loan interest rates, but if the boy and girl get marrage the new family(2x persons) only share one time low loan interest rates.

2x low loan interest rates(for two individual) VS 1x low loan interest rates(for one family) = hundred thousands of RMB.

So today China were popular with false divorce,but some false become the truth. LOL ...

 

[shuttler]

shuttler, average pay isn't 100.000 yuan let's sift through the fog that you sow:

China's 2011 average salaries revealed |Economy |chinadaily.com.cn

Top average monthly pay is 4,600 yuan. In a district that is richest anyway. So, if an average pay cannot be 100.000 in a top paying district, your model is all wrong.

Here's a bit more of the same:

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects-IMF

While i appreciate your math, nevertheless, i feel it's more apt to take an example from the real world-there's 30% downpayment + credit for 40 years-mortgage obligations will eat up 70% of disposable income:

China’s housing slaves need lifetime to pay off mortgages | Economy | News | Financial Post

Now, don't get me wrong, housing slavery is everywhere, it's one of the best ways how to keep poor people poor perpetually.

￥100,000 is an annual estimate, not monthly
according to imf per capita GDP Chjna 2012 is about USD 6,700 pa, increasing it by about 16% for a slightly above average capabilities of a couple which is ￥100K per annum

I have made a slight correction though ie adjusting the disposable income to 30~40% while adding the yearly loan instalment payment there

Also the down payments are of 50% (old) to 60% (new law）is mandatory in China

The couple can be relaxed a bit by extending their mortgage terms so as to make their livelihood more comfortable

"housing slaves" are everywhere in the world but China are also building affordable housing for the people who cant afford buying commercial apartments @ post #15

also read the link that I provided about the forcast of growing middle income populations

Thanks @cnleio about the average income data

In China average monthly pay is ￥4,000 ~ ￥5,000 , for a Chinese family (both husband and wife all have the jobs) could reach average monthly pay ￥8000 ~ ￥10,000.

I think it belongs to a another questinon, buying house before marrage or after marrage? Coz 2012 China governmnt released a Housing Policy: the bank loan for a family not an individual. It means the boy and girl each has one chance to enjoy the same low loan interest rates, but if the boy and girl get marrage the new family(2x persons) only share one time low loan interest rates.

2x low loan interest rates(for two individual) VS 1x low loan interest rates(for one family) = hundred thousands of RMB.

So today China were popular with false divorce,but some false become the truth. LOL ...

it is true But in the case of a separate low interest loan they also have to take responsibilities for 2 home mortages

 

[Audio]

....

How much are this affordable apartments then if couple that earns ~ 13,000$ per year can put downpayment of 60%?

 

[shuttler]

How much are this affordable apartments then if couple that earns ~ 13,000$ per year can put downpayment of 60%?

savings and from parents

 

[Audio]

savings and from parents

Number please if possible.

 

[shuttler]

Number please if possible.

come back here if I can find one

savings and gratitudes from parents are private info. I dont know if any country can have these info available

 

[Audio]

come back here if I can find one

If you can't, i'm certain i can, just wanted to see your's first

 

[shuttler]

If you can't, i'm certain i can, just wanted to see your's first

go ahead then

 

[Audio]

go ahead then

Shenzhen Apartment, Real Estate, Property for Sale and Buy - China Real Estate

Shenzhen starts from 18,000 yuan/m², which is roughly 3-4 times the average monthly pay, is it not? Though to be honest that seems to be one of the more expensive cities, according to pricing from Chongqing which starts at 5500 yuan/m².

http://www.china-realestate.cn/others/Apartment_Sale_sub_detail.asp?CategoryID=417

Still expensive though imho, whole month's salary for one square meter. Admittedly, this is a Google search, i'd probably get more results on Baidu.

 

[shuttler]

Shenzhen Apartment, Real Estate, Property for Sale and Buy - China Real Estate

Shenzhen starts from 18,000 yuan/m², which is roughly 3-4 times the average monthly pay, is it not? Though to be honest that seems to be one of the more expensive cities, according to pricing from Chongqing which starts at 5500 yuan/m².

Chongqing Apartment, Real Estate, Property for Sale and Buy - China Real Estate

Still expensive though imho, whole month's salary for one square meter. Admittedly, this is a Google search, i'd probably get more results on Baidu.

show me the distribution of the "empty" houses by location then we talk

 

[Audio]

show me the distribution of the "empty" houses by location then we talk

That's probably one of the most closely guarded pieces of economic data in China today as per earlier reports that 60+ million apartments didn't consume electricity which the state owned power companies immediately denied. How could i get it?

 

[shuttler]

That's probably one of the most closely guarded pieces of economic data in China today as per earlier reports that 60+ million apartments didn't consume electricity which the state owned power companies immediately denied. How could i get it?

how can the caixin people get the info?
so if the info is not obtained, the end of further discussion

 

[cnleio]

That's probably one of the most closely guarded pieces of economic data in China today as per earlier reports that 60+ million apartments didn't consume electricity which the state owned power companies immediately denied. How could i get it?

The empty houses/apartments didn't mean there'r no owners, i think they had been sold out but the rough house no one live in.

It's simple coz in today China most of ppl consider buying house as the investment, more rich family buying more houses/apartments, early time they bought many houses before 2010~2011 in low price now the price of these ever cheaper empty houses/apartments have rise up.

Of course if these empty houses (maybe 60+ million houses/apartments) sell in the house market, i think it will help to reduce the high housing price. They bought in low price several years ago and currently still good situations for house owners, why we sell empty houses/apartments in our hands ?
(I have told u, in the low house price time many family had bought more than 2 houses, they just live in one and leave other empty houses/apartments alone.)