10 mln Indians to lose jobs over economic meltdown

[Energon]

I disagree on that statement. If you compare disposable income on Chines, roughly the population equates to 200 million. It will be tougher for them to build internal economy, as you have suggested.

I never said that this was going to be easy; and this is certainly unchartered territory for both India and China who have for the most part of their existence always had a culture that either promotes shoddy paternalism, indifference or all out exploitation of the masses.

While the challenge for India will be mass education, infrastructure development and liberalization of economic policies; the Chinese will have to tackle issues like revision of their banking policies, labor laws and liberalization of social policies. The point however remains that if both nations were to follow these respective action plans, China is bound to fare well a lot sooner because they are already ahead on the education, social development and infrastructure and have an exponentially greater industrial capacity to produce cheap goods aimed at the "bottom of the pyramid" market as well as the middle class of the developing nations.

 

[Energon]

India's savings rate is now close to 35 % while China's is 50% as you rightly pointed out.

In some cases a lower spending rate actually makes the market more attractive for investment and overall commerce.

 

[jeypore]

I never said that this was going to be easy; and this is certainly unchartered territory for both India and China who have for the most part of their existence always had a culture that either promotes shoddy paternalism, indifference or all out exploitation of the masses.

While the challenge for India will be mass education, infrastructure development and liberalization of economic policies; the Chinese will have to tackle issues like revision of their banking policies, labor laws and liberalization of social policies. The point however remains that if both nations were to follow these respective action plans, China is bound to fare well a lot sooner because they are already ahead on the education, social development and infrastructure and have an exponentially greater industrial capacity to produce cheap goods aimed at the "bottom of the pyramid" market as well as the middle class of the developing nations.

I still disagree China is going to fair better, We are in agreevance of unchartered territories for both the countries, but i believe India will fair better in this regards for the internal economic system. First India does have strong foundation of internal economy unlike chinas, where the strategy solely depended on foreign investment for the economy. And in return the foreign investment was spent heavily on the infrastructure of the country, were India does lag behind.

And my reasoning is this while India built it export orianted business on it's own merit with very minimal foreign investment, China did excatly opposite. One of the key factors of the down turn economy is the lack of flow of money in the system, which directly hurts Chinese economy, while to India it becomes a secondary issue. And I believe one of the big indicator of my theory will be slowing down of foundation building in China. Just my theory and reasoning

 

[Energon]

I still disagree China is going to fair better, We are in agreevance of unchartered territories for both the countries, but i believe India will fair better in this regards for the internal economic system. First India does have strong foundation of internal economy unlike chinas, where the strategy solely depended on foreign investment for the economy. And in return the foreign investment was spent heavily on the infrastructure of the country, were India does lag behind.

And my reasoning is this while India built it export orianted business on it's own merit with very minimal foreign investment, China did excatly opposite. One of the key factors of the down turn economy is the lack of flow of money in the system, which directly hurts Chinese economy, while to India it becomes a secondary issue. And I believe one of the big indicator of my theory will be slowing down of foundation building in China. Just my theory and reasoning

Like India, China too has been very apt at self sustenance through internalization of its economy during the height of the cold war. It is true however that India was slightly better off given that it wasn't bound by communism; nonetheless neither one of the countries can really boast about their respective isolationist periods considering there was rampant poverty, inequality and economic stagnation.

In terms of capital however I'm pretty sure that China is actually at an advantage given their deeper coffers and subsequent liberty when investing into themselves while India will have to rely upon the outside world (particularly the west) which as time goes by might get bogged down by their own protectionist policies in the face of monetary drought. This combined with their superior industrial prowess across the board, better infrastructure, better social development in their rural sector, better governance, overall stability and the lack of large scale and constant existential threats emanating from irregular conflicts (intrinsic and extrinsic) leaves them in a much better position IMO.

And of course this again is just my theory and I could very well be wrong.

 

[jeypore]

Like India, China too has been very apt at self sustenance through internalization of its economy during the height of the cold war. It is true however that India was slightly better off given that it wasn't bound by communism; nonetheless neither one of the countries can really boast about their respective isolationist periods considering there was rampant poverty, inequality and economic stagnation.

In terms of capital however I'm pretty sure that China is actually at an advantage given their deeper coffers and subsequent liberty when investing into themselves while India will have to rely upon the outside world (particularly the west) which as time goes by might get bogged down by their own protectionist policies in the face of monetary drought. This combined with their superior industrial prowess across the board, better infrastructure, better social development in their rural sector, better governance, overall stability and the lack of large scale and constant existential threats emanating from irregular conflicts (intrinsic and extrinsic) leaves them in a much better position IMO.

And of course this again is just my theory and I could very well be wrong.

Chinese Investing in themselves has a massive failure rate. A case in point is look at CCP control banks which has a default rate close to 49% in early 90's. The CCP did reform those banks with massive influx of money from bankruptcy, but it has not fair any better in the 21 st century. The biggest draw back for these banks has been large old goverment control industries that has the lowest effiency and utilization rate, and are in negative every year. Luckly china has the reserves to save these banks every year, if there is any indicator of dwindling reserves, these banks will be the first to be effected and massive economic colapse.

 

[paritosh]

here is the news we've been speculating...
20 million migrants lose their jobs -- Shanghai Daily | ???? -- English Window to China New

china has lost 20 million migrant labor jobs!

 

[Luftwaffe]

Hmmm job losses in India....lol i smell something looks like MRCA is well on its way to be delayed 5 more years..

 

[keeninterest]

Chinese Investing in themselves has a massive failure rate. A case in point is look at CCP control banks which has a default rate close to 49% in early 90's. The CCP did reform those banks with massive influx of money from bankruptcy, but it has not fair any better in the 21 st century. The biggest draw back for these banks has been large old goverment control industries that has the lowest effiency and utilization rate, and are in negative every year. Luckly china has the reserves to save these banks every year, if there is any indicator of dwindling reserves, these banks will be the first to be effected and massive economic colapse.

though i agree china is in a spot of bother but not by much, as you have mentioned the huge reserves they sit on which pretty much takes care of their worries. as for their banks and their rather infamous story of NPAs goes that is no way near 49% at present but has come down to a more manageable 7% after writing off massive bad debts but then that again is no way healthy and there are certain cases which are poorly managed and that rate is as high as 20% and such entities would be the first to go bust if their reserves were to come under pressure, and that in turn would undoubtedly effect their total banking sector. the place where they could find themselves in a tight spot could be the dwindling exports, from where they have filled their coffers and these are bound to fall as the consumption patterns across the globe fall except for may be north korea ;-), and this will be testing them real hard as this will be putting pressure on the repayment of their external borrowings along with unrest of sorts that could happen if all the unemployed were to take to streets, and the recent assertion of spending some 500b usd which if went wrong would be the start of the end, but the focus has to be those reserves, if they are able to hold on to them then they pretty well sail safely if not then future will talk of communism in china as a past tense.