Joe Shearer
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- Apr 19, 2009
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Quite simply it is what I have said before. I repeat: this is a drama made up by China to relieve the regime of tension created by a number of internal dissensions, due to the lack of transparency about the management of the virus cases within China, due to increasing international criticism over China's role in the pandemic going on, due to tensions over the increasing intransigence of Taiwan, due to tensions about their failure to dominate the US in the South China Sea, and due to Indian moves to link up with other nations critical of China, such as Australia, to give Taiwan more prominence than before the 50s, and to continue to refuse to collaborate with China on its economic expansion measures, not to mention openly seeking to be an alternative to China for nations wishful of outsourcing their production.
This was bound to happen, either with us or elsewhere. The Chinese leadership is seeking a distraction, and it has created one.
Unfortunately, since we ourselves have an incompetent leadership, that thinks at abysmally limited levels of intelligence, the coming together of pinpricks by the Pakistan Army on the LOC, the sudden creation of a border issue where none existed with Nepal, and the expansion of military strength in Ladakh were not seen as a concerted move to create pressure on India.
Since 1967, there has been no gunfire on the boundaries between Chinese and Indian troops. It is unlikely, improbable that there will be any now. However, there will be provocation, there will be propaganda, and there will be loud criticism from Chinese allies put up to be provocative as well.
I expect that tension will increase until China obtains some kind of concession, but tension will increase only up to a point. If there is simply nothing to be gained, and China senses it, there will be a settlement, and allied elements will be informed that the settlement is entirely in China's favour, just as they were told in the case of Doklam, and presumably with the same results as in that case: these allies will overlook the original point of contention, and agree whole-heartedly with the Chinese explanation that a settlement is a brilliantly disguised Chinese victory.
There is a very small chance that actual fighting will break out. If it does, then we have to see what we have to see. Sabre-rattling does not lead to military advantage; for that matter, neither does the apish behaviour demonstrated on this forum by some members.
I hope that this adequately
