How Russian access to Pakistan's Gwadar port and CPEC will weigh against the Russo-Indian Relations

Stephen Cohen said:

Russia does NOT need either Gwadar or Any Warm waters for Trade

Russia has DIRECT Land and Sea connectivity with
ALL its Major Trading Partners
namely Europe ; China ; Central Asia ; Iran ; Turkey

And Russia has BOUGHT India's VADINAR port which is very close to Gwadar Port

http://indianexpress.com/article/bu...y-essar-oil-vadinar-port-for-12-9-bn-3085155/

Rosneft to buy Essar Oil, Vadinar Port for $12.9 bn

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The SC said:

Russia doesn't need warm waters for its trade and then it is buying an Indian port near Gwadar.. make up your mind!
And since when a private Oil company became Russia in your opinion?
This is what your article says:
"The Essar group has agreed to sell Essar Oil and Vadinar port to Russian oil major Rosneft and a consortium of oil trading firm Trafigura and private investment group United Capital Partners for $12.9 billion"

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Kaptaan said:

No. It is not. Bosphorus Straits. More than 26,663 vessels have passed through Istanbul's Bosphorus Strait so far this year, marking a remarkable increase in one year. Bulgaria, Romania, Moldavia, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia all rely on the Black Sea/Bosphorus for trade.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/re...h-bosphorus-in-2014.aspx?pageID=238&nid=71753

Below: Russian Navy's large landing ship Korolev sails in the Bosphorus, on its way to the Meditearnean and Syria.

The entire Russian Black Sea Fleat is based in this theatre.

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Stephen Cohen said:

If you DO NOT know the IMPORTANCE and POWER of ROSNEFT in Russian economy
and Russian society then it is Not my fault

This deal was personally brokered by PUTIN because
Saudis ALSO wanted to buy This Huge Refinery -- 20 MILLION tonnes capacity

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...al-almost-fell-apart/articleshow/55449879.cms

Now Russia has a Refinery and a PORT in India to do its OIL business
with India

India is the Second biggest Oil Market in Asia
for which Russia has now got direct access

Russia sells its crude to China and Europe through Overland Pipelines

Gwadar and CPEC do not figure in Russia's economic plans

If Russia wants to sell Anything to China's Xinjiang province ; where CPEC
will finally Terminate ; Russia will use the DIRECT land route between
Russia and China

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The SC said:

Interestingly, Russia’s bid to join the CPEC comes as a yet another indication that Moscow, which has been India’s key weapons supplier for decades, is abandoning India for Pakistan. It seems that Russia has more chances than any other country to join the CPEC, as theories about a possible China-Russia-Pakistan superpower triangle keep piling up. The CPEC may be that formal launchpad to form an alliance between Beijing, Moscow and Islamabad.

CPEC is foundation for China-Russia-Pakistan superpower triangle
But what’s all the fuss about? Is the CPEC really becoming the new BRICS? It could be so.

Just days ago, Russia and Pakistan reportedly held backdoor meetings which led Moscow to formally request access to Gwadar Port and ask China and Pakistan to be part of the lucrative multi-billion-dollar project. According to sources cited by Pakistan’s Daily Times, the chief of Russia’s intelligence agency, Federal Security Services, made a secret visit to Pakistan.
...
While Pakistan and China have yet to look into Russia’s request to join the CPEC, Vladimir Putin’s country is not the only nation that wants to join the lucrative project. The United Kingdom, Turkey and France have also been pretty assertive and vocal about their intentions to join the Pak-Chinese Corridor. Officials from other European countries are also reportedly in negotiations with Pakistani and Chinese officials to start projects regarding the CPEC.

But the most promising addition to the China-Pakistan project is probably the United Kingdom, which is currently in the long process of leaving the European Union. After Britons voted in favor of Brexit this past summer, the U.K. sees the need to bring its investments into non-EU projects, and the CPEC could become this very platform for investments.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/11/uk-france-russia-join-pakistan-china-cpec/

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TMA said:

Pakistan would also let Russia use Gwadar as a base,

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The SC said:

How Russian access to Gwadar, or what they call warm waters will weigh against the Russo-Indian Relations?
For example, how much political and financial pressure can India put on Russia to counter its arms sales to Pakistan, without jeopardizing the latter's vital longings to get access to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea?
Weighing both ends, Russia will try to find some equilibrium in its relations with India and Pakistan..Will the billions of Russian arms sales to India and their "Strategic" partnership outweigh the potential of more billions to be made through trade from Gwadar and CPEC?
Pakistan holds this politico-economic vital and important card to play with Russia and against Indian interventions in arms sales among other benefits..

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Kaptaan said:

Of course Pakistan can offer it but it has nominal benefit for the Russians. The fact is they are even struggling to project power in their own backyard let alone on the farthest corners of the Euro-Asian continent. With China it is differant - that is a emerging hyperpower and Pakistan figures central to it's strategic outlook. Gawadar is peripheral to Russian interests. It has some nominal use and we should keep that in mind instead of making a big drama out of this.

On the map below you get a idea of what I am trying to convey. Most of the Russian population lives within the red hexagon. The projecting locations in Russia are marked numbered stars.

1. Novorossiysk. This has now been built up as the HQ of the Russian Black Sea fleet. This is a major force - far bigger than the entire Pak Navy. While NATO could blockade it in Bosphorus but such a scenario would be recipe for nuclear war. It would then not matter about Gwadar etc or other peripheral Russian access points. The world would be facing nuclear armageddon.

2. Makhachkala - Russian port on Caspian Sea in Muslim region of Daghestan. This is adjacent to Iran. From here Russia can rely the not too far Iranian ports on the Persian Gulf or even Chah Bahar. This is the second best option. Short and reliant on Iran which is a solid Russian ally. This also does not rely on third countries.

3. Novosibirsk - in the cold frozen Siberia. Vey low population and over 2,500 miles away which is a vast distance. This would require going through China and then down the CPEC. Yes there is some utility but I don't think Kremlin planners will be opening bottles of Vodka over this. In fact using No.2 Makchakala would be more effective in terms of distance and security.

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Sinopakfriend said:

Why does Pak has to be strategic factor whenever great empires change places?

Interesting process @Kaptaan any thoughts to why it is so? From Ancient times to present day...

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Iqbal Ali said:

Gwadar is a port Russia can use.

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Kaptaan said:

Thanks for your input Sino. I think the reason is to do with the concept they call 'geographic determinism'. Indus Valley occupies a very strategic zone. It's a buffer or a bridge between major regions. To the east you have massive populations of the Ganga/Dravid peninsula. To the West you have what they call Middle East (I don't like that term as it is very Euro-centric. I prefer West Asia) and to the north have Central Asia. In addition you have the conduit through the Indus gorges that funnel through the Karakorums and allow access to Inner China/Tarim Basin which of course was the one of the routes of the Silk Road and now the CPEC. This has meant that the Indus has always been subjected to historical events and at the same time been the crucible of major historical events.

Therein lies Pakistan's destiny today. If the country can synchronize itself with it's geography and the tempo of history then it would move fast forward. That Pakistan is not just a political entity (despite what reasons caused it to emerge in 1947) but in fact a inheritor of major pathway of history is being recognized slowly. I only wish if Pak elites also woke up to this fact and educated the nation on geograhic and historical destiny. Robert Kaplan has written some interesting pieces on this. Before this Aitzaz Ahsan - Indus Saga and The Making of Pakistan was a seminal book that should have opened the eyes of Pak elites. That book should have been mandatory reading for every high school student in Pakistam.


http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/872849.The_Indus_Saga_and_the_Making_of_Pakistan

In a recent Foreign Policy article, Robert Kaplan argues that Pakistan’s problems—and its destiny—are rooted in its physical landscape: “Pakistan’s present and future, for better or worse, are still best understood through its geography.”

Instead he contends that the country does indeed have a specific geographical logic—one that shapes its politics and guides its development. That logic is founded on possession of the Indus Valley and (most of) the fertile plains of the Punjab, areas that, he claims, automatically tie in with the adjacent western uplands and hence to the vital trade routes of Central Asia and the Middle East.

“the Indian subcontinent has two principal geographical regions: the Indus Valley with its tributaries, and the Ganges Valley with its tributaries.”

“Today’s political geography is historically unique, however: an Indus Valley state, Pakistan, and a powerful Ganges Valley state, India, both fighting for control of an independent and semi-chaotic Central Asian near abroad — Afghanistan.”




I don't want to sound facetious or anything but when people make a statement it tends to help a lot if they can can qualify it. Like you say x and then you qualify it by giving y reasons. Makes it better all round.

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