2016 IMF Financial report on Iran

[Arminkh]

A good read about Iran's economy after the sanctions were partially removed:

Highlights:

Economic growth rebounded over the course of 2016/17 on the back of higher oil production. Real GDP grew by 7.4 percent in the first half 2016/17, rebounding from recession in 2015/16. However, growth in the non-oil sector averaged 0.9 percent, despite the pick-up registered in the second quarter, reflecting continued difficulties in access to finance and domestic financial sector and structural weaknesses. Inflation declined to single digits and has hovered in the 9.5 percent range, year-on-year, since mid-2016. The foreign exchange market stabilized although it experienced some volatility towards end-2016 before recovering in January 2017. The spread between the official and the market rate has narrowed to about 15 percent.
Growth is projected to stabilize at 4.5 percent over the medium-term as the recovery broadens. Real GDP growth is expected to reach 6.6 percent in 2016/17 and to ease to 3.3 percent in 2017/18 as oil production remains at the OPEC target. Thereafter, higher FDI and a gradual improvement in domestic financial conditions drive investment and stronger non-oil sector growth. The current account is forecast to remain in surplus as higher exports offset the pick-up in imports related to investment. Inflation is expected to temporarily rise to 11.9 percent (year-on-year) by end-2017/18 reflecting recent liquidity growth and pass-through from exchange rate depreciation, but to return to single digits on the back of prudent fiscal and monetary policies. The pace of job creation lags that needed to absorb the large number of new entrants to the labor market and unemployment remains high.

You can find the full report here:

http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-44707

 

[AmirPatriot]

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/imf-reports-7-4-growth-in-iranian-economy.480663/

 

[Arminkh]

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/imf-reports-7-4-growth-in-iranian-economy.480663/

Sorry missed this one.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

I now realise for the first time that Armin(kh) and Amir(Patriot) are two different persons.

 

[AUz]

Lol, so 99% of growth came from oil sector? Very pathetic Iran.

You need to do better than this.

 

[AmirPatriot]

I know realise for the first time that Armin(kh) and Amir(Patriot) are two different persons.

Lol, so 99% of growth came from oil sector? Very pathetic Iran.

You need to do better than this.

88%.

The main reason for this is that the sanctions had reduced Iran's oil output from around 4 million barrels a day to about 3 million. The growth was in effect just the oil sector returning to normal operation of about 4 million barrels.

 

[mohsen]

Lol, so 99% of growth came from oil sector? Very pathetic Iran.

You need to do better than this.

well, it's even more pathetic cause the oil money doesn't come to Iran (thanks to Mr Zarif and the deal that now Mr Trump doesn't want to scrap), and the f@cked up government has to import foreign goods and services instead, which means it will only lead to more unemployment and destruction of domestic industries;
so the actual GDP growth (fall) is : -5.6%

 

[haman10]

Lol, so 99% of growth came from oil sector? Very pathetic Iran.

You need to do better than this.

Our non-oil exports is much more than our neighbors (except turkey), brother.
this is despite 30 years of sanctions.

not so much pathetic.

 

[Arminkh]

I now realise for the first time that Armin(kh) and Amir(Patriot) are two different persons.

Well I'm kind of flattered if you mixed me up with him. He is much more knowledgeable than I am.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Iran's Non-Oil Foreign Trade Turnover Tops $70b

Iran’s non-oil foreign trade during the 10 months of the current Iranian year (started March 20, 2016) stood at $70.25 billion, indicating a 5.8% increase compared with the corresponding period of last year.

According to the latest report by the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, Iran exported $35.27 billion worth of non-oil commodities during the period, registering an 8.37% rise year-on-year.

The country imported $34.98 billion worth of goods during the period, up 3.21% year-on-year.

The figures point to a $288 million surplus in Iran's international trade in the 10 months to January 19, 2017.

IRICA’s data put the weight of exports and imports at 102.04 million and 27.55 million tons respectively, registering a 33.76% and 2.87% growth respectively.

Gas condensates were Iran's main exported commodity ($6.02 billion), making up for 17.08% of the total non-oil export figure. They were followed by natural liquefied gases ($1.95 billion), light crude oil, excluding gasoline ($1.34 billion), petroleum gases and liquefied hydrocarbons ($1.06 billion) and liquefied propane ($990 million).

The imported commodities mainly included field corn ($1.16 billion), soybean ($774 million), auto parts ($666 million), motor vehicles with engine displacement of 1,500-2,000cc ($626 million), and motor vehicles with engine displacement of 2,000-2,500cc ($536 million).

China was the main customer of Iranian products in the 10-month period as Iran exported $6.54 billion worth of non-oil goods to the Asian country, 9.53% more compared with last year's similar period.

Other major export destinations included the UAE with $5.66 billion, Iraq with $5.39 billion, Turkey with $2.81 billion and South Korea with $2.56 billion worth of Iranian goods imported.

Major exporters to Iran included China ($8.4 billion), the UAE ($5.48 billion), South Korea ($2.78 billion), Turkey ($2.19 billion) and Germany ($1.96 billion). Imports from China, the UAE, South Korea and Turkey fell by 1.27%, 11.47%, 8.74% and 10.99% respectively.

However, imports from Germany experienced a 36.39% rise year-on-year.

> Rise in Customs Revenues

Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali Tayyebnia said last week that the implementation of the "Integrated Customs System" has led to a 40% increase in IRICA's revenues in the current Iranian year over last year.

“It has also helped fight smuggling through the improvement of transparency and business environment,” he said.

In the past three years, the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration has carried out major reforms to improve its services and cut red tape to increase its revenues. These changes have been collectively introduced as Integrated Customs System.

To this end, the IRICA has also replaced a number of customs documentations with electronic database to create a more efficient and modern customs environment.

Other changes include automatic authentication, automatic designation of customs officer based on rules and regulations, issuance of electronic green cards, smart weighing, issuance of electronic invoices from warehouses and online transit declaration.

> Thorn in the Side of Economy

Nevertheless, smuggling remains a thorn in the side of the Iranian economy. Around 8 trillion rials (close to $2.1 billion at market exchange rate) worth of contraband goods were confiscated during the nine months to December 20, the head of the Headquarters for Combating the Smuggling of Commodities and Foreign Exchange, Habibollah Haqiqi, said last week.

"The seized items mostly included household appliances, mobile phones and cigarettes," he was quoted as saying by IRNA.

The government has intensifies efforts to counter smuggling.

According to authorities, over 15 billion worth of commodities are smuggled per annum—mostly into Iran. The figure stood at a whopping $25 billion in 2013 when President Hassan Rouhani took office.
https://financialtribune.com/articl...irans-non-oil-foreign-trade-turnover-tops-70b

@mohsen

 

[AmirPatriot]

Well I'm kind of flattered if you mixed me up with him. He is much more knowledgeable than I am.

You are too kind brother. I respect all your posts.

 

[mohsen]

Iran's Non-Oil Foreign Trade Turnover Tops $70b

Iran’s non-oil foreign trade during the 10 months of the current Iranian year (started March 20, 2016) stood at $70.25 billion, indicating a 5.8% increase compared with the corresponding period of last year.

According to the latest report by the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, Iran exported $35.27 billion worth of non-oil commodities during the period, registering an 8.37% rise year-on-year.

The country imported $34.98 billion worth of goods during the period, up 3.21% year-on-year.

The figures point to a $288 million surplus in Iran's international trade in the 10 months to January 19, 2017.

IRICA’s data put the weight of exports and imports at 102.04 million and 27.55 million tons respectively, registering a 33.76% and 2.87% growth respectively.

Gas condensates were Iran's main exported commodity ($6.02 billion), making up for 17.08% of the total non-oil export figure. They were followed by natural liquefied gases ($1.95 billion), light crude oil, excluding gasoline ($1.34 billion), petroleum gases and liquefied hydrocarbons ($1.06 billion) and liquefied propane ($990 million).

The imported commodities mainly included field corn ($1.16 billion), soybean ($774 million), auto parts ($666 million), motor vehicles with engine displacement of 1,500-2,000cc ($626 million), and motor vehicles with engine displacement of 2,000-2,500cc ($536 million).

China was the main customer of Iranian products in the 10-month period as Iran exported $6.54 billion worth of non-oil goods to the Asian country, 9.53% more compared with last year's similar period.

Other major export destinations included the UAE with $5.66 billion, Iraq with $5.39 billion, Turkey with $2.81 billion and South Korea with $2.56 billion worth of Iranian goods imported.

Major exporters to Iran included China ($8.4 billion), the UAE ($5.48 billion), South Korea ($2.78 billion), Turkey ($2.19 billion) and Germany ($1.96 billion). Imports from China, the UAE, South Korea and Turkey fell by 1.27%, 11.47%, 8.74% and 10.99% respectively.

However, imports from Germany experienced a 36.39% rise year-on-year.

> Rise in Customs Revenues

Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali Tayyebnia said last week that the implementation of the "Integrated Customs System" has led to a 40% increase in IRICA's revenues in the current Iranian year over last year.

“It has also helped fight smuggling through the improvement of transparency and business environment,” he said.

In the past three years, the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration has carried out major reforms to improve its services and cut red tape to increase its revenues. These changes have been collectively introduced as Integrated Customs System.

To this end, the IRICA has also replaced a number of customs documentations with electronic database to create a more efficient and modern customs environment.

Other changes include automatic authentication, automatic designation of customs officer based on rules and regulations, issuance of electronic green cards, smart weighing, issuance of electronic invoices from warehouses and online transit declaration.

> Thorn in the Side of Economy

Nevertheless, smuggling remains a thorn in the side of the Iranian economy. Around 8 trillion rials (close to $2.1 billion at market exchange rate) worth of contraband goods were confiscated during the nine months to December 20, the head of the Headquarters for Combating the Smuggling of Commodities and Foreign Exchange, Habibollah Haqiqi, said last week.

"The seized items mostly included household appliances, mobile phones and cigarettes," he was quoted as saying by IRNA.

The government has intensifies efforts to counter smuggling.

According to authorities, over 15 billion worth of commodities are smuggled per annum—mostly into Iran. The figure stood at a whopping $25 billion in 2013 when President Hassan Rouhani took office.
https://financialtribune.com/articl...irans-non-oil-foreign-trade-turnover-tops-70b

@mohsen

this article and numbers are just a hoax to fool naive people.
The foreign trade rate became positive a year earlier, in this year, export and import both reduced, import with a sharper rate, the reduction wasn't in the consuming products but in the raw materials used by industry, the number of closed factories in this year was equal to past 35 years after revolution.

One of policies of Rouhani's industry (import) minister (to fabricate numbers and serve their masters) was the cancelling of IranCode, a system initiated during Ahmadinejad to controll the imports, in the absence of this system, amount of smuggling to country increases while the custom statistics shows the opposite, in the same year which I mentioned the import through smuggling was estimated around $20 billion while the import through custom was $41.5 billion, export was $42.5 billion.
So the actual numbers were $61.5 billion import vs $42.5 billion export.

The currency exchange rate showed the reality out of these propaganda, when last year we saw this:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/27/irans-rial-at-all-time-low-over-strong-dollar-other-woes.html

 

[OldTwilight]

Actual industrial growth is -3.5% ....

well, it's even more pathetic cause the oil money doesn't come to Iran (thanks to Mr Zarif and the deal that now Mr Trump doesn't want to scrap), and the f@cked up government has to import foreign goods and services instead, which means it will only lead to more unemployment and destruction of domestic industries;
so the actual GDP growth (fall) is : -5.6%

At least current Administrators become super rich ...

 

[KediKesenFare3]

this article and numbers are just a hoax to fool naive people.
The foreign trade rate became positive a year earlier, in this year, export and import both reduced, import with a sharper rate, the reduction wasn't in the consuming products but in the raw materials used by industry, the number of closed factories in this year was equal to past 35 years after revolution.

One of policies of Rouhani's industry (import) minister (to fabricate numbers and serve their masters) was the cancelling of IranCode, a system initiated during Ahmadinejad to controll the imports, in the absence of this system, amount of smuggling to country increases while the custom statistics shows the opposite, in the same year which I mentioned the import through smuggling was estimated around $20 billion while the import through custom was $41.5 billion, export was $42.5 billion.
So the actual numbers were $61.5 billion import vs $42.5 billion export.

The currency exchange rate showed the reality out of these propaganda, when last year we saw this:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/27/irans-rial-at-all-time-low-over-strong-dollar-other-woes.html

To prove you wrong I looked up the Turkish trade figures for Iran. And now I'm not so sure about the article anymore. According to TurkStat our exports to Iran skyrocketed from 3.6 billion USD 2015 to 5 billion USD in 2016 (provisional data). But the article states that Iran's imports from Turkey even declined in the same period. Somebody is lying here.