China uses Pakistan to blunt India's NSG membership bid

[cloud4000]

Bottom line is we are getting what we want regardless. Even if there were multiple options available we would still opt for Chinese option due to its cost effectiveness.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ar-reactor-in-essex-after-hinkley-deal-appro/

Even UK is opting for Chinese option so whats next?

NSG is not really necessary for either countries, but it's an issue of prestige. It's the world accepting non-NPT nuclear weapon states as equals.

 

[Nilgiri]

So you think we tested nuclear weapons for Pakistan, but for some reason, despite having thermonuclear tech for a long time... we decided to only test fission bombs for them, not thermonuclear ones.

If you think so, go ahead with those "surgical strikes" and you'll find out soon enough.

Read the entirety of my post, and look up the sources that have talked about the CHIC-4 design in context to its yield and why its a natural fit for proliferation compared to a TN.

The testing of the CHIC-4 variant was exactly because of it being a variant (and not an original). The Pakistanis asked for it to be boosted from the original, so this had to be designed and tested by the Chinese before a final blueprint could be transferred....that Pakistan later used in its 1998 tests and also in several cold tests prior to that.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

Main bhi munnai muhajir hoon.

Jo bhi hai. Tumharai to lagta hai kahin gum ho gaye hain. Mil kar hi nahi dai rahai.

Tu sirf ek lotaa hain re.kabhi seedhe nahin khade ho sakta.doosron ka Sahara chahiye aur istemaal lotaa ka kya kaam ke liye hotaa hain yeh tum hi behtar jaano.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Read the entirety of my post, and look up the sources that have talked about the CHIC-4 design in context to its yield and why its a natural fit for proliferation compared to a TN.

The testing of the CHIC-4 variant was exactly because of it being a variant (and not an original). The Pakistanis asked for it to be boosted from the original, so this had to be designed and tested by the Chinese before a final blueprint could be transferred....that Pakistan later used in its 1998 tests and also in several cold tests prior to that.

The point is that if we TESTED nuclear warheads on Pakistan's behalf, they wouldn't need to test it themselves.

And if we did test it on their behalf, there is no way to know which ones of our large number of nuclear tests were done on Pakistan's behalf, including the many thermonuclear tests.

There would have been no need to test it themselves since these are proven designs. Pakistan's actual testing was miminal and only occured after India had tested theirs.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

The point is that if we TESTED nuclear warheads on Pakistan's behalf, they wouldn't need to test it themselves.

And if we did test it on their behalf, there is no way to know which ones of our large number of nuclear tests were done on Pakistan's behalf, including the many thermonuclear tests.

There would have been no need to test it themselves since these are proven designs. Pakistan's actual testing was miminal and only occured after India had tested theirs.

Knowing the Pakistanis , if they had a TN , they would've announced it to the whole world in 1998.If they didn't receive it then , there's no chance they have it .Besides , apart from their unverifiable claim of testing a TN in 1998 with even lesser veracity than ours, it's a no brainier .They don't have it .I pretty much doubt they have a 3 Rd gen Fission bomb too.

 

[Nilgiri]

The point is that if we TESTED nuclear warheads on Pakistan's behalf, they wouldn't need to test it themselves.

Uh yeah they would. How do you think political/military statements work? Not everyone wants to be like Israel and keep the apple intact and not bite into it.

And if we did test it on their behalf, there is no way to know which ones of our large number of nuclear tests were done on Pakistan's behalf, including the many thermonuclear tests.

Actually the tests done by China in the 80s were very specific derivatives (mostly to develop the warhead for their SLBMs and certain neutron designs etc), they were not standard run of the mill tests that were done in say the 70s. I suggest you read about them. There were very few TN tests by China in the 80s. Hence why there is very specific intel and data collated mostly by the CIA but also the KGB and Mossad regarding these...and their signatures given derivatives from miniaturisation process were of great interest.

There would have been no need to test it themselves since these are proven designs. Pakistan's actual testing was miminal and only occured after India had tested theirs.

Again read the first point. Additionally, the Pakistanis experimented with a few of their own variants (on top of the base design in the blueprint). For example they needed to verify that their tritium initiator design worked as compared to the UD3 one the Chinese used in their CHIC-4. This is important for Pakistan given they have more sustainable production of Tritium (with the intent of developing boosted fission models) compared to UD3. There was a Pakistani member I discussed this with last year I think, forgot his name.

Anyway there are several logical iterations for which China provided a full blueprint or significant component design to the Pakistanis and also tested a 1st variant for most importantly giving base calibration data for the design that the Pakistanis could then advance....among many other reasons....and why this was picked up by the CIA and others as the first major confirmation of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program (I read a few bulletins on the details but I can't be bothered to look them up again, you are welcome to search for them).

You will have to read up on medium and advanced nuclear physics, especially in weapons design to continue this conversation in any meaningful way. You seem to enjoy trolling and one liner's more anyway.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

NSG is not really necessary for either countries, but it's an issue of prestige. It's the world accepting non-NPT nuclear weapon states as equals.

Not completely right .India needs to get in to be party to all the rules of the game being framed there.Instead of being on the outside as it was till 2006.consider this , if we don't get in now & at some point of time in the future , the waiver is & can always be revoked , we'd be back at the mercy of the NSG .

Uh yeah they would. How do you think political/military statements work? Not everyone wants to be like Israel and keep the apple intact and not bite into it.


Actually the tests done by China in the 80s were very specific derivatives (mostly to develop the warhead for their SLBMs and certain neutron designs etc), they were not standard run of the mill tests that were done in say the 70s. I suggest you read about them. There were very few TN tests by China in the 80s.



Again read the first point. Additionally, the Pakistanis experimented with a few of their own variants (on top of the base design in the blueprint). For example they needed to verify that their tritium initiator design worked as compared to the UD3 one the Chinese used in their CHIC-4. This is important for Pakistan given they have more sustainable production of Tritium (with the intent of developing boosted fission models) compared to UD3. There was a Pakistani member I discussed this with last year I think, forgot his name.

Anyway there are several logical iterations for which China provided a full blueprint or significant component design to the Pakistanis and also tested a 1st variant for most importantly giving base calibration data for the design that the Pakistanis could then advance....among many other reasons....and why this was picked up by the CIA and others as the first major confirmation of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program (I read a few bulletins on the details but I can't be bothered to look them up again, you are welcome to search for them).

You will have to read up on medium and advanced nuclear physics, especially in weapons design to continue this conversation in any meaningful way. You seem to enjoy trolling and one liner's more anyway.

What in your estimate is the biggest yield for a Pak N device ? What do you estimate their inventory to be like ? In nos & yield , if it's not asking for too much .

P.S - forget @Chinese-Dragon .He's ignorant on technical matters.

 

[Nilgiri]

What in your estimate is the biggest yield for a Pak N device ? What do you estimate their inventory to be like ? In nos & yield , if it's not asking for too much .

With boosting around 30 -40 kt max per warhead. No idea how many they have boosted (it would depend on how much Tritium they have produced over time).

Highest case scenario (I feel) is around 100 - 120 warheads (from the U conversion analysis people have done) of 40kt each. They may have just kept it exact same as the 32 kt test for everything since why mess with a working proven design that has been tested....given the deterrence is effectively the same.

The actual scenario would depend on how many they have split between more strategic warheads and tactical Nasr warheads (effectively neutron bombs).

In fact the use/prevalence of larger number of tactical warheads in Pakistan's arsenal may suggest something is up regarding their Tritium design/production of Tritium and maybe something else entirely. This is a good thing for India as in a worst case total exchange there will be much less civilian casualties on our side (given less yield per mass of fissile material), especially if effective measures are taken to deal with tactical platforms from the enemy during an invasion.

Its a cat and mouse game to determine this stuff for the most part.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

With boosting around 30 -40 kt max per warhead. No idea how many they have boosted (it would depend on how much Tritium they have produced over time).

Highest case scenario (I feel) is around 100 - 120 warheads (from the U conversion analysis people have done) of 40kt each. They may have just kept it exact same as the 32 kt test for everything since why mess with a working proven design that has been tested....given the deterrence is effectively the same.

The actual scenario would depend on how many they have split between more strategic warheads and tactical Nasr warheads (effectively neutron bombs).

In fact the use/prevalence of larger number of tactical warheads in Pakistan's arsenal may suggest something is up regarding their Tritium design/production of Tritium and maybe something else entirely. This is a good thing for India as in a worst case total exchange there will be much less civilian casualties on our side (given less yield per mass of fissile material), especially if effective measures are taken to deal with tactical platforms from the enemy during an invasion.

Its a cat and mouse game to determine this stuff for the most part.

This broadly corresponds to what I've read & heard from knowledgeable sources too.Except , they expect the nos to not exceed 50-60.

Concise & brilliant analysis.Are you in anyway connected to N physics ?

 

[Nilgiri]

This broadly corresponds to what I've read & heard from knowledgeable sources too.Except , they expect the nos to not exceed 50-60.

Concise & brilliant analysis.Are you in anyway connected to N physics ?

I studied it quite extensively over many years, but not my day job (thats aerospace propulsion, general aviation field).

Physics in general is probably my favourite subject heh.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Knowing the Pakistanis , if they had a TN , they would've announced it to the whole world in 1998.If they didn't receive it then , there's no chance they have it .Besides , apart from their unverifiable claim of testing a TN in 1998 with even lesser veracity than ours, it's a no brainier .They don't have it .I pretty much doubt they have a 3 Rd gen Fission bomb too.

Is that why India keeps crying and boasting about "surgical strikes" but can't do anything?

Like I said, if China tested warheads on Pakistan's behalf, it is very likely they have full thermonuclear technology. Which means a single one of their warheads is several times more powerful than India's entire arsenal.

With boosting around 30 -40 kt max per warhead. No idea how many they have boosted (it would depend on how much Tritium they have produced over time).

If China tested warheads for Pakistan, or even straight up handed them the designs/warheads, it is extremely wishful thinking to simply "assume" we handed them the lowest possible technology.

Criminally negligent even.

 

[American Pakistani]

China's position is very simple and fair. Either accept both non NPT states or decline both.

 

[Nilgiri]

If China tested warheads for Pakistan, or even straight up handed them the designs/warheads, it is extremely wishful thinking to simply "assume" we handed them the lowest possible technology.

Criminally negligent even.

Come back when you have read up some basics on nuclear technology and the intelligence reports and analysis from the period in question.

That was not the lowest possible technology (which would technically be earlier CHIC series), it was the best you could do without attracting potentially terrible retribution in a still difficult time politically/economically (the 80s)....while still hedging effectively with a country you viewed as a good ally down the road....but not quite there (given their relationship with the US at the time).

Now you can definitely argue and debate about the level of proliferation involved....even that the test you did was not for them (but that cooperation was limited to straight component blueprint transfer) ....but you have to bring up 2 crucial points (that you would know if you have read and deeply understood what I was talking about earlier) for that....and sustain them logically. These two crucial points have absolutely nothing to do with the line of argument you have chosen....one typical of someone who knows about nuclear weapons vaguely, but nothing about their deep design, science and engineering. i.e you have to think more technically and on scientific basis rather than strictly geo-politically tinged with much bias.

China's planners are much more intelligent, pragmatic and far-seeing than you seem to think they are. They knew back then the major issues with straight TN tech transfer.

If your argument is that there was absolutely no proliferation by China, that is equally laughable....because it shows you have not looked at the seismic signature analysis of the relevant tests....and its quite likely you do not even understand the significance of this, and why, when and how it was used by the CIA to establish the technological heritage of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program.

You simply do not understand anywhere near enough whats required to back up your plain-jane biased "logic". When you have limited information and understanding envelope, "logic" becomes quite irrelevant.

Now you can correct this by reading up on the issue yourself (and that will take a long time, and I dont know how old you are or your natural acumen for Scientific reasoning)....or you can choose to keep going in circles shutting your ears, in which case I must take my departure from this conversation.

 

[phancong]

China won't veto India NSG membership as long as Pakistan join NSG as the same time, no exception to be make just for India and excluded Pakistan.

 

[MilSpec]

You mean Buddha who was born in Nepal?

A long time before India even existed?

The Western colonial creation known as "India" is so good at statecraft that they are literally on the verge of nuclear war with Pakistan as we speak, and might not even be here next week or month.

Whereas China has not a single drop of bloodshed on any of our borders. The worst that happens in the South China Sea is someone gets sprayed with a water hose.

You are a TTA and are insulting nationality and violating forum regulations. Post reported.

You know India did not even exist until the British created you guys right?

Before that, the subcontinent was filled with hundreds of independent kingdoms.

And you never won your independence with a fight, you begged for it. Same as how you begged to get back AP, and how you are now begging to get the NSG seat.

@Slav Defence @WebMaster check post.