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Analysis: How Russia keeps piling pressure on Turkey

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Moscow deploys its most sophisticated warplanes to Syria as relations with Ankara continue to strain.


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The confrontation with Turkey has become key to Putin's campaign to force the West to recognise Russia as a major military power [EPA]


Over the weekend, four of Russia's newest and most sophisticated military aircraft - the Su-35 "Flanker E" - arrived at the Russian airbase of Latakia in Syria.

This comes on the back of another alleged violation of Turkish airspace by a Russian Su-34 "Fullback" fighter-bomber on Friday.

Relations between Ankara and Moscow remain extremely tense since Turkish forces shot down a Russian Su-24 jet after allegedly violating Turkish airspace for under 20 seconds in November.


Although Turkey is within its legal rights to shoot down foreign military aircraft which violate its airspace and refuse to comply with warnings, Ankara deliberately took a very aggressive stand against repeated Russian violations by shooting down the plane.

This, in turn, seems to have prompted a dual response from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

For his domestic audience - still the most important factor for the Russian leader - Putin has deployed the S-400 advanced air defence system and ordered jets taking part in operations near the Turkish border armed with live air-to-air missiles for self-protection.

'Turkish agression'

Internally, such moves are likely intended as a show of defensive strength as a wronged party in the face of Turkish "aggression".

However, on the international stage, Putin is determined to re-gain the initiative from Turkey.

Brief violations of NATO airspace, particularly in the Baltic States and Turkey, have been a common Russian tactic to exert pressure in recent years.

The gamble has always been that NATO members would not risk dangerous escalation by exercising their legal rights to fire upon such intrusions.

In November, however, Turkey called the Russian bluff - and in doing so Ankara seized the initiative away from Russia on the issue of airspace.

Whatever Russian media sources spin for internal consumption, the Kremlin understands exactly what happened and that Russia is now reacting to an external escalation - not the other way around.

To that end, Friday's violation by the Su-34 - a much more formidable aircraft than the plane that Turkey shot down - and the subsequent deployment of four Su-35s is an aggressive message to Turkey and NATO that Russia is back on the offensive.

Russian message
Four Su-35s will add almost nothing to Russian air strikes in Syria, which continue to hit predominantly moderate rebel-held territory despite claims that they are aimed at the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group.

However, these are formidable air superiority machines which can significantly outmatch Turkey's own F-16C/Ds in any sudden confrontation at the border.

By continuing to violate Turkey's airspace, Russia is sending a deliberate message that it will not be intimidated and will retain control of escalation dominance in Syria and beyond.

And by sending its most lethal warplane to Syria at the same time, it is reinforcing that message with the implication that if Turkey were to dare fire upon another intrusion, the aircraft in question would likely respond and would be reinforced by jets more capable than those possessed by the Turkish Air Force.



However, the deployment of the Su-35s may further reinforce doubts about the vaunted S-400 system in Latakia.

If fully operational, the S-400's long range and advanced missiles can hold a large section of Turkey's airspace at threat - and, by implication, should deter any further shoot-downs of intruders by Turkish jets at the border for fear of immediate reprisal.

However, there has been speculation that there are only components of part of an S-400 battery in Syria at present, potentially due to a deal with Israel about not placing long range missile systems there.

This would explain why Russia feels is necessary to deploy Su-35s as well.
Whilst domestic Russian audiences may be satisfied with the response they feel S-400 represents to the shoot-down, NATO, with its advanced surveillance and detection capabilities in the area, may be aware that the presence of the air defence system is not all it appears to be - and therefore be less intimidated than Russia would like.

The Su-35, on the other hand, is held in high regard as a threat by NATO air forces, including the US one.

It is considered a good match for the most modern European fighters - the Typhoon and Rafale which are both taking part in operations in the region - and it is only really outmatched by the scarce American F-22 Raptor stealth fighter.

It is, therefore, an ideal tool for intimidating Turkey and NATO more widely.

Russia is thought to have no more than 40 Su-35 fighters in frontline service so the deployment of four aircraft with crews to Syria is also a fairly substantial undertaking for a Russian military which is struggling to modernise in the face of economic recession and very low oil prices.

It further illustrates how the confrontation with Turkey has become central to Putin's campaign to force the West to recognise Russia as one of the world's major military powers once more.

Justin Bronk is a Research Fellow in Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

Source: Al Jazeera

Analysis: How Russia keeps piling pressure on Turkey - Al Jazeera English
 
hmm perfect time to buy some 50~ F15 with the key to upgrade them later by TAI :D

also we should buy some A-10 I would say 20 of them would be fun
 
Turkey should increase its defense budget and flex its military muscle.
 
we should buy some A-10

I created once a thread named "Do we need A-10"s,

we should talk with Boeing for available refurbished and modernized.
And the US . Gov for 1 Million Uranium depleted rounds;

( estimated 150 hours per plane of engagement with 30 mm cannon = enough for 1 month battle against Russian armored divisions )

cause it has 4200 rpm per minute and our guys like overkill.


F-15 is an illusion off the shelf. A-10 available.

US Air Force to keep the ugly, deadly, and uniquely capable A-10 in the air through 2022 | ExtremeTech

A10-Thunderbolt2-640x353.jpg


Resistant like steel against BULLETS

Kim_campbell_damage_a10-640x480.jpg
 
I created once a thread named "Do we need A-10"s,

we should talk with Boeing for available refurbished and modernized.
And the US . Gov for 1 Million Uranium depleted rounds;

( estimated 150 hours per plane of engagement with 30 mm cannon = enough for 1 month battle against Russian armored divisions )

cause it has 4200 rpm per minute and our guys like overkill.


F-15 is an illusion off the shelf. A-10 available.

US Air Force to keep the ugly, deadly, and uniquely capable A-10 in the air through 2022 | ExtremeTech

A10-Thunderbolt2-640x353.jpg


Resistant like steel against BULLETS

Kim_campbell_damage_a10-640x480.jpg


I love this plane put we should not use the uranium rounds in Türkiye never :D
 
Russia - PUTIN is going on escalating and PROVOKING :

Putin : " We should cancel friendship agreement from 1921 between SU and Turkey "!

He set Russian South Forces at Black Sea and Caspian Sea in alarm status.

Rus ordusu alarma geçti!
 
Su-35 is a superior fighter alright, but this is all theory. What kind of reaction they will give if their superior fighter will be shot down by a Turkish F-16? I hope Russians will violate our air space again with their ''superior'' fighter.
 
Su-35 is a superior fighter alright, but this is all theory. What kind of reaction they will give if their superior fighter will be shot down by a Turkish F-16? I hope Russians will violate our air space again with their ''superior'' fighter.

Exactly.
I also don't understand all the S400/300 hype. I'm sure it's good but it's all on paper and regulated tests.
It's never used in battle. And there are still battle proven patriot batteries in Turkey, so wtf?
 
battle proven patriot batteries

But the trigger is not in our hands. Spanish soldiers are at the trigger and Nato Base Ramstein coordinates it,
also Kürecik Radar and ABM shield.
F-16s especially Turkish (almost all are upgraded, except some for "special missions") are one of the western worlds modern warplanes.

Here you can see F-16 in a dogfight with the most modern Eurofighter, F-16 turns sharp at almost 7 G. Much depends on pilots .
The only legend of Russians is COBRA maneuver which they copied from TOPGUN F-14.

 
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