Iraq's Nightmare Scenario; Iraq Militants Surge; Imagine a World
Aired June 13, 2014 - 14:00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST (voice-over): Tonight, is Iraq finally falling apart? Will any more cities fall for the Islamic militants? The former prime minister, Ayad Allawi, tells me that even the capital is under siege.
AYAD ALLAWI, FORMER PM, IRAQ: The belt of Baghdad is under their control and the government is unable to challenge this.
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AMANPOUR: Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the program. I'm Christiane Amanpour.
And it is Iraq's nightmare scenario. The government is battling to fend off a stunning lightning strike by ISIS, the Sunni extremist group that splintered away from Al Qaeda. Iraq's second largest city and major economic hub, Mosul, has already fallen and heavy fighting continues in
Tikrit, which is Saddam Hussein's hometown. And tonight ISIS is trying to capture the major power plant in Baiji, which supplies electricity to Baghdad and much of the country. The collapse of Mosul took the government and the U.S. government by surprise. Half a million residents fled the city and 30,000 Iraqi troops dropped their uniforms, their American-made weapons and they deserted the battlefield. Now thousands of volunteers are lining up to help prevent ISIS from marching on the capital. Iraq's foreign minister calls all of this a mortal threat, the worst since sectarian war erupted in 2006. But back then, a surge of U.S. forces defeated the extremists. Now President Obama has pulled out all U.S. forces. That happened at the end of 2011. And violence has spiraled ever since. ISIS is the Islamic State of Iraq in Syria and indeed Syria lit the fuse for the current crisis, as the British Foreign Secretary William Hague said yesterday on this program.
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WILLIAM HAGUE, FOREIGN SECRETARY OF GREAT BRITAIN: It is a very dangerous situation and, indeed, it illustrates the dangers in the entire region of the impact of the Syria conflict on neighboring states, including on Iraq.
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AMANPOUR: Now Iraq not only has to get its military house in order but its political house in order as well. The current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is accused of becoming increasingly authoritarian and sectarian. Ten years ago, though, Ayad Allawi was Iraq's first post-Saddam prime minister, and he joined me here in the studio before heading back to Baghdad in a last-ditch effort to gather a ruling council of national unity.
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AMANPOUR: Prime Minister Allawi, thank you very much for joining me.
ALLAWI: Thank you for having me.
AMANPOUR: This is about as bad as it can get, isn't it? Are we seeing the end of Iraq as we know it?
ALLAWI: Probably it depends how it's going to be handled. But I think we are moving into a Syrianization kind of situation. Unfortunately, I think what we have on our hand is an environment which have been quite supportive to forces of extreme to grow. Unfortunately, this is what have happened. And we don't have institutions that can deal with this issue, including security institutions.
AMANPOUR: Let's talk about that for a second. Some people are telling me it is hard now to avoid the reality that Iraq will be partitioned.
ALLAWI: It's very possible. It depends how things will be sorted out. But we are moving in that direction.
AMANPOUR: Moving in the direction of partition. So we're talking militants holding the west part; we're talking about Shiites (INAUDIBLE) Baghdad and down. Is this what we're talking about? Sort of partitioned, sort of around here and then Baghdad and down and then Kurdistan up?
ALLAWI: I hope -- I hope not. But this is the general situation out of --
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AMANPOUR: This is what everybody has been trying to avoid for the last decade. Can you explain to me how two divisions of Iraqi forces after 10 years of American training and equipment just laid down their arms and ran away before several hundred militants?
ALLAWI: Because they had nothing to fight for. Absolutely. You know, the -- unfortunately, the situation --
AMANPOUR: They had nothing to fight for?
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ALLAWI: No, no, no, because they have been disenfranchised. They have been oppressed. The situation had been getting out of control gradually. The forces of CM (ph) thriving in Iraq. They have been, frankly, killing 1,000 people on average a month. And the government was unable and still is unable to do anything about it.
AMANPOUR: When you say they have nothing to fight for, I know that you are a big critic of President Maliki. You have accused him of increasing sectarianism, authoritarianism and a sort of a Shiite dictatorship. Some believe that this could be a unifying, clarifying moment for him to open a different political venue to deal with this. Do you think that that's possible? Will he do it?
ALLAWI: I think it's too late for him. Nobody's going to trust him. Nobody's going to take his word. He had the opportunity in 2010, both himself and the United States. And both of them failed to grasp the opportunity and work towards a unified Iraq.
AMANPOUR: Well, that's when you got the most votes --
ALLAWI: Yes.
AMANPOUR: -- and then he was able, with U.S. help, to cobble together --
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ALLAWI: I had the most votes, number one; number two, I had all the Sunnis (ph) rallying around us, around Iraq here, undo around one another (ph). Well, we could have eased the sectarian situation and moved into a kind of reconciliation, which can unite the country. But unfortunately we have not --
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AMANPOUR: Do you feel that there's any way to be able to do that now? Or is it too late?
ALLAWI: I don't think it's too late; it is late, definitely. But it's not too late. I started -- spoke in the last three days to the senior politicians in Iraq and I told them that what we should look at now is how to convene a small meeting of the -- as a summit meeting to see the road map ahead, what can we do and to form a government of leaders, not a government of second- or third-layer people, but rather the leaders should be involved. And I think this can salvage the situation.
AMANPOUR: That means without Maliki or a parallel government?
ALLAWI: No, Maliki can be part of it. But he can't head it. He can't head this government --
AMANPOUR: Do you think there's any hope in hell that that's going to be accepted?
ALLAWI: Well, Hakim accepted this. Jaffery himself, the head of the national --
AMANPOUR: Former prime minister.
ALLAWI: -- former prime minister accepted this. Others have accepted this. I have asked Jaffery to speak to Maliki. So it -- to accept it, because if it doesn't then the only outcome is going to be dismemberment of the country.
AMANPOUR: So let's talk about the immediate threat. They haven't just taken Mosul; they are struggling now for Tikrit. They've got a hold or they're advancing on the major power plant in Baiji. And they have Ramadi and they have Fallujah.
ALLAWI: And they are running actions and terrorist activities in Basra, Karbala, Baghdad. The belt of Baghdad has fallen practically for the last three weeks and they now --
AMANPOUR: Outskirts of Baghdad?
ALLAWI: Yes.
AMANPOUR: Has fallen?
ALLAWI: For the night, it's under the control of the armed people, armed forces.
AMANPOUR: The militants?
ALLAWI: The militants.
AMANPOUR: The Sunni militants?
ALLAWI: Yes, yes.
AMANPOUR: Do you think there is any way that they can get Baghdad?
ALLAWI: Well, definitely the belt of Baghdad is under their control. And the government is unable to challenge this. The government is unable to prevent explosions inside Baghdad, even in the areas around the degree (ph) zone.
AMANPOUR: But there's a city of 7 million people, and it's mostly Shiite. They're going to resist, aren't they?
ALLAWI: The Shiites do not really -- are not respecting the government. They see that Maliki, if you take, for example, al-Sadat (ph), if you take Hakim, you can see very clearly that they reject Maliki's pressing power and Maliki is insisting on continuing power.
AMANPOUR: Who is going to intervene, do you think? Do you see Iran intervening with troops? Do you see America helping? Do you see your forces able to retake Mosul without any outside help?
ALLAWI: I am not sure whether the American intervention is going to be helpful. It will probably put oil on the fire. I don't think this is right. I think the Americans have lost their effort to and their capability to influence things in Iraq, especially after they left and departed in 2011. I think there are two players now in Iraq, two major players, Iran and for lesser, much lesser extent, is Turkey. But again, they can't use and they can't come clearly and nakedly into Iraq and try to do what they'd like to do. But I guess now as the Iraqi people and the leaders of the various factions. And they have to have open mind and they have to be able to sit down and talk, even to the armed people.
AMANPOUR: Well, I want to show you this map again, because obviously most people are incredibly worried about this connection here and this border. Mosul is not far, 100 miles or kilometers, from the Syrian border. And these ISIS people have talked about a caliphate in this whole area. Do you see that possibility?
ALLAWI: I think it's a possibility. You know what happened in Syria is definitely spilling over into Iraq. And what happened in Iraq has spilled over into Syria. My worry, really, is that throughout the greater Middle East, Al Qaeda is coming back again with various other extreme groups. They are spreading in Afghanistan. They are spreading in Pakistan. They are spreading into Somalia and Palestine. Then frankly speaking, Iraq and the Iraqi players need to sit down and need to reconcile and need to look deep and to salvage the country because if Iraq is disbanded, then this will carry on to the rest of the region and it will be quite bloody, really, as is now the case.
AMANPOUR: Former prime minister Ayad Allawi, thank you very much for joining me.
ALLAWI: Thank you. Thank you.
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