Hafizzz
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http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/16/hugh-white-on-the-china-choice/?_r=0
Australia has always been one of the United States most loyal allies, but now that the Australian economy depends mightily on the sale of iron ore to China, attitudes are a little more blurred. So perhaps it is not surprising that a provocative thesis that the United States should share power with China in the Asia-Pacific region should come from a former Australian government defense official.
In The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power, Hugh White, the principal author of Australias 2000 Defense White Paper and now a professor of strategic studies at Australian National University, argues that by accommodating China, the United States would reduce what he sees as the escalating chance of war. Far from being appeasement, as some in Washington argue, this would be a realistic solution, in Mr. Whites view, to what many see as the overriding question of the coming decades: how China and the United States will resolve their basic differences.
If the two countries continue to compete for primacy in the Pacific, a new Cold War or worse, an open conflict will be the result, he says. Many American analysts agree that conflict between China and the United States is possible, maybe increasingly likely. But few buy the argument that the United States is losing ground to China and must consider a power-sharing arrangement to avoid war.
The strategic rivalry between the United States and China is driven by their different and incompatible roles in the region, Mr. White said during a recent visit to Beijing, where he spoke to several academic groups, including a generally favorable audience organized by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The principal aim of the United States is to preserve American primacy in Asia. China conversely wants, as a minimum objective, at least an equal role with United States. Primacy for the United States, equality for China they are inherently incompatible.
Mr. White outlines a chilling view of what could happen in the East China Sea in the territorial dispute between China and Japan over the islands known as the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan.
China is seeking to use the island dispute to demonstrate to the rest of Asia that the United States cannot support its allies in Asia in the face of Chinas growing power, Mr. White said. The willingness of China to press Japan over the islands sending close-in sea patrols, refusing to talk until Japan softens its position suggests a high level of confidence that America wont support Japan, he said.
The Chinese, he warned, are seriously underestimating Washingtons resolve to back Japan, he said.
Here is one possible scenario: Mr. White puts the risk of an exchange of fire that would result in ship being sunk or a plane shot down by either Japan or China in the East China Sea at 20 percent. That may not sound like much of a risk, but given the horrendous consequences should this happen, it is greater than it may sound, he said.
That 20 percent is a very high probability for something which has such outcomes, he said. Should such a confrontation occur, the chance of Japan seeking American support would be 90 percent, he estimates, and the chance of the United States providing that support would be 95 percent. The probability of a conflict between China and Japan then escalating into war between the United States and China is high, he said.
Mr. White is hardly a gadfly. From 1995 to 2000 he held senior positions in the Australian Department of Defense, including deputy secretary for strategy and intelligence. Because of Australias close alliance with the United States, and the high degree of shared intelligence, Mr. White was privy to Americas secrets during his time in government.
He has worked with many officials in Washington, so for that reason alone his argument has been attracting attention. The Asia Society has shortlisted The China Choice for this years Bernard Schwartz Book Award, which honors works that explain contemporary Asia or U.S.-Asia relations to general audiences. (The winner is to be announced at the end of October). His thesis, he acknowledges, falls into the category of the stimulating, rather than the popular.
I dont agree with you, but lets go and have lunch, is how he describes the reaction in Washington so far. Many American officials believe U.S. exceptionalism will prevail.
From 1985 to 1990, Mr. White worked as a private secretary to Kim Beazley, who was then minister of defense and is now the Australian ambassador to the United States. The two are good friends. Does Mr. Beazley agree with him?
He does not buy my argument, Mr. White said. He cant imagine a world where the United States doesnt have the biggest economy and the strongest military.
In Asia, though, Mr. Whites argument is gaining support and, in some quarters, direct echoes, especially in the wake of President Obamas recent absence from the Asian summit meetings in Indonesia and Brunei.
Washington will be better off negotiating new power-sharing arrangements with Beijing, instead of seeking to contain the rise of China by rounding up its allies and friends in the region, wrote Sabam Siagian and Endy M. Bayuni, two prominent Indonesian writers and former Nieman fellows at Harvard, in an opinion piece in The Jakarta Post last week. Asia would welcome a U.S. policy that will, of necessity, be vastly different from the 2011 pivot, and one that is more realistic and less gung-ho.
Sounds like Mr. White lite.
Australia has always been one of the United States most loyal allies, but now that the Australian economy depends mightily on the sale of iron ore to China, attitudes are a little more blurred. So perhaps it is not surprising that a provocative thesis that the United States should share power with China in the Asia-Pacific region should come from a former Australian government defense official.
In The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power, Hugh White, the principal author of Australias 2000 Defense White Paper and now a professor of strategic studies at Australian National University, argues that by accommodating China, the United States would reduce what he sees as the escalating chance of war. Far from being appeasement, as some in Washington argue, this would be a realistic solution, in Mr. Whites view, to what many see as the overriding question of the coming decades: how China and the United States will resolve their basic differences.
If the two countries continue to compete for primacy in the Pacific, a new Cold War or worse, an open conflict will be the result, he says. Many American analysts agree that conflict between China and the United States is possible, maybe increasingly likely. But few buy the argument that the United States is losing ground to China and must consider a power-sharing arrangement to avoid war.
The strategic rivalry between the United States and China is driven by their different and incompatible roles in the region, Mr. White said during a recent visit to Beijing, where he spoke to several academic groups, including a generally favorable audience organized by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The principal aim of the United States is to preserve American primacy in Asia. China conversely wants, as a minimum objective, at least an equal role with United States. Primacy for the United States, equality for China they are inherently incompatible.
Mr. White outlines a chilling view of what could happen in the East China Sea in the territorial dispute between China and Japan over the islands known as the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan.
China is seeking to use the island dispute to demonstrate to the rest of Asia that the United States cannot support its allies in Asia in the face of Chinas growing power, Mr. White said. The willingness of China to press Japan over the islands sending close-in sea patrols, refusing to talk until Japan softens its position suggests a high level of confidence that America wont support Japan, he said.
The Chinese, he warned, are seriously underestimating Washingtons resolve to back Japan, he said.
Here is one possible scenario: Mr. White puts the risk of an exchange of fire that would result in ship being sunk or a plane shot down by either Japan or China in the East China Sea at 20 percent. That may not sound like much of a risk, but given the horrendous consequences should this happen, it is greater than it may sound, he said.
That 20 percent is a very high probability for something which has such outcomes, he said. Should such a confrontation occur, the chance of Japan seeking American support would be 90 percent, he estimates, and the chance of the United States providing that support would be 95 percent. The probability of a conflict between China and Japan then escalating into war between the United States and China is high, he said.
Mr. White is hardly a gadfly. From 1995 to 2000 he held senior positions in the Australian Department of Defense, including deputy secretary for strategy and intelligence. Because of Australias close alliance with the United States, and the high degree of shared intelligence, Mr. White was privy to Americas secrets during his time in government.
He has worked with many officials in Washington, so for that reason alone his argument has been attracting attention. The Asia Society has shortlisted The China Choice for this years Bernard Schwartz Book Award, which honors works that explain contemporary Asia or U.S.-Asia relations to general audiences. (The winner is to be announced at the end of October). His thesis, he acknowledges, falls into the category of the stimulating, rather than the popular.
I dont agree with you, but lets go and have lunch, is how he describes the reaction in Washington so far. Many American officials believe U.S. exceptionalism will prevail.
From 1985 to 1990, Mr. White worked as a private secretary to Kim Beazley, who was then minister of defense and is now the Australian ambassador to the United States. The two are good friends. Does Mr. Beazley agree with him?
He does not buy my argument, Mr. White said. He cant imagine a world where the United States doesnt have the biggest economy and the strongest military.
In Asia, though, Mr. Whites argument is gaining support and, in some quarters, direct echoes, especially in the wake of President Obamas recent absence from the Asian summit meetings in Indonesia and Brunei.
Washington will be better off negotiating new power-sharing arrangements with Beijing, instead of seeking to contain the rise of China by rounding up its allies and friends in the region, wrote Sabam Siagian and Endy M. Bayuni, two prominent Indonesian writers and former Nieman fellows at Harvard, in an opinion piece in The Jakarta Post last week. Asia would welcome a U.S. policy that will, of necessity, be vastly different from the 2011 pivot, and one that is more realistic and less gung-ho.
Sounds like Mr. White lite.
