Madali
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I’ve been thinking recently how relevant the new Saudi King is to the current aggressive (or we can say “proactive” if “aggressive” has negative connotations) foreign policy. Now, before I continue, I am making this thread with the best of intentions, nothing against our Saudi posters here, so I’m not looking for a flame war.
I would also like to mention my knowledge of Saudi is far less than many more knowledgeable posters here, so I would welcome any honest comments.
(Also, the pictures are there just to make the post look nicer. They serve no real purpose)
Before we talk about the new King, I would like to remind posters here of Saudi’s unique succession policy. Most monarchies in the world are Primogeniture, meaning the eldest son is next in line. In Saudi, it is a process called the Agnatic seniority, which is from Brother to Brother, rather than Father to Son. I think that currently Saudi Arabia is the only monarchy that practices this method.
In Saudi, this process started after the crown went from King Abdulaziz to his eldest. After that, it has been brother to brother. So far, this method has worked for the ruling family. The worth of any ruling system is in its survivability.
However, things might be getting more complicated now. Initially, it seemed every King was relatively young. Here are the Brother Kings after Ibn Saud & their ages when they became King:
Saud: 52
Faisal: 58
Khalid: 62
Fahd: 61
Abdullah: 81
Salman: 79
As you can see, the ages of the Kings upon the crown is going up. This will have many implications. Now the succession itself seems to have more details than just brother to brother, because the mother matters, I think, plus internal politics. For example, Mishaal is older than Salman, but he wasn’t given the crown.
Anyway, all these long background is to get closer to my real point. As being the King of Al Saud is a big deal, political maneuverings become more and more important. Brothers are getting older, and once it passes over you, then you have no chance to be King.
Now, King Salman is not young. What’s going to happen after King Salman? Brothers are getting less & less remaining, and who is remaining are generally all old. The youngest brother out of ELEVEN remaining is 70 years old.
King Salman has been trying to strengthen his and his family’s position in the monarchy. A very interesting information about all this is King Salman placing his son as Minister of Defense. Why is this interesting? Because Prince Mohammad is only 30 years old, the youngest Minister of Defense in the world!
Okay, so now let’s bring all this to current events. Salman became King on 23rd of January 2015. Prince Mohammad became the Minister of Defense the same day. It’s not three months father & son have been in office, and they have started attacking Yemen, a very new development from Saudi’s usually guarded foreign policy.
New leaders & managers generally do something big to make a big impact in their new role. Is King Salman & son doing that? If Yemen is successful for them, then King has received a huge victory for his position in the first few months in office. Is it possible that King Salman was concerned that, without doing anything big, his position would be weakened, and due to his age, would not be able to place his sons firmly in important positions?
But there is also another thing to consider. Is it possible that Yemen crisis was actually a trap set for King Salman and his son by other players in the family to discredit Salman? If the King and his son fail with Yemen, this could possibly weaken the King, specially his young son. If Yemen turns into a quagmire, then the son might be used as a scapegoat internally and if pushed out, Salman won’t have any strong assets left.
Something else we should not forget. The Minister of Defense seems to be a very important position in Saudi Arabia in terms of rising power. Salman himself was Minister of Defense from 2011 to 2015. Before that it was Sultan, who was the Crown Prince (to be the next King) and died in 2011. So, Sultan who was Minister of Defense was supposed to be King, King Salman who was Minister of Defense became King, therefore, does it not mean that Prince Mohammad is being groomed to be the next King? If so, then I will repeat my previous point, could Yemen be a trap to discredit the Young Prince to prevent that from happening?
Oof, I wrote all that while referring to Wikipedia and other sites, so hopefully information is not wrong. In short, my take away point from all this is to ask ourselves, how much is Yemen due to internal political maneuverings?
I would enjoy getting comments on this, especially from our Saudi posters. If I’m completely wrong, it would not be a big surprise, since I am obviously not a political scientist nor am that well versed in Saudi Arabia political system.
I would also like to mention my knowledge of Saudi is far less than many more knowledgeable posters here, so I would welcome any honest comments.
(Also, the pictures are there just to make the post look nicer. They serve no real purpose)
Before we talk about the new King, I would like to remind posters here of Saudi’s unique succession policy. Most monarchies in the world are Primogeniture, meaning the eldest son is next in line. In Saudi, it is a process called the Agnatic seniority, which is from Brother to Brother, rather than Father to Son. I think that currently Saudi Arabia is the only monarchy that practices this method.
In Saudi, this process started after the crown went from King Abdulaziz to his eldest. After that, it has been brother to brother. So far, this method has worked for the ruling family. The worth of any ruling system is in its survivability.
However, things might be getting more complicated now. Initially, it seemed every King was relatively young. Here are the Brother Kings after Ibn Saud & their ages when they became King:
Saud: 52
Faisal: 58
Khalid: 62
Fahd: 61
Abdullah: 81
Salman: 79
As you can see, the ages of the Kings upon the crown is going up. This will have many implications. Now the succession itself seems to have more details than just brother to brother, because the mother matters, I think, plus internal politics. For example, Mishaal is older than Salman, but he wasn’t given the crown.
Anyway, all these long background is to get closer to my real point. As being the King of Al Saud is a big deal, political maneuverings become more and more important. Brothers are getting older, and once it passes over you, then you have no chance to be King.
Now, King Salman is not young. What’s going to happen after King Salman? Brothers are getting less & less remaining, and who is remaining are generally all old. The youngest brother out of ELEVEN remaining is 70 years old.
King Salman has been trying to strengthen his and his family’s position in the monarchy. A very interesting information about all this is King Salman placing his son as Minister of Defense. Why is this interesting? Because Prince Mohammad is only 30 years old, the youngest Minister of Defense in the world!
Okay, so now let’s bring all this to current events. Salman became King on 23rd of January 2015. Prince Mohammad became the Minister of Defense the same day. It’s not three months father & son have been in office, and they have started attacking Yemen, a very new development from Saudi’s usually guarded foreign policy.
New leaders & managers generally do something big to make a big impact in their new role. Is King Salman & son doing that? If Yemen is successful for them, then King has received a huge victory for his position in the first few months in office. Is it possible that King Salman was concerned that, without doing anything big, his position would be weakened, and due to his age, would not be able to place his sons firmly in important positions?
But there is also another thing to consider. Is it possible that Yemen crisis was actually a trap set for King Salman and his son by other players in the family to discredit Salman? If the King and his son fail with Yemen, this could possibly weaken the King, specially his young son. If Yemen turns into a quagmire, then the son might be used as a scapegoat internally and if pushed out, Salman won’t have any strong assets left.
Something else we should not forget. The Minister of Defense seems to be a very important position in Saudi Arabia in terms of rising power. Salman himself was Minister of Defense from 2011 to 2015. Before that it was Sultan, who was the Crown Prince (to be the next King) and died in 2011. So, Sultan who was Minister of Defense was supposed to be King, King Salman who was Minister of Defense became King, therefore, does it not mean that Prince Mohammad is being groomed to be the next King? If so, then I will repeat my previous point, could Yemen be a trap to discredit the Young Prince to prevent that from happening?
Oof, I wrote all that while referring to Wikipedia and other sites, so hopefully information is not wrong. In short, my take away point from all this is to ask ourselves, how much is Yemen due to internal political maneuverings?
I would enjoy getting comments on this, especially from our Saudi posters. If I’m completely wrong, it would not be a big surprise, since I am obviously not a political scientist nor am that well versed in Saudi Arabia political system.
