@Spectre
A very good topic for discussion. Perhaps a bit of a long post from my side. Please bear with me on this and correct me if i am wrong.
History is sometimes blamed for many decisions.. In our case also something are of historical significance and yet with changing times we have not adapted much out of it. Its timelines which decided such a force size with obvious attempts to justify the "need" for such numbers.
Historically, In the second world war time, there was a rough estimate that total army size was 2.5 Million and demobilization started to prune down the size. Field Marshal Claude Auchinleck had recommended the following force structure for the armed forces of independent India’s:
- A 200,000 strong army of some 10 divisions, devoted primarily to internal security;
- A 20 squadron air force;
- A navy of 69 capital ships. This was to be structured around two aircraft carrier forces which i had covered in one of the threads lost during March April 2016 downtime.
The situations just after the independence right from Union of India and assimilation of certain territories along with lack of financial clout, economic prosperity made us lose focus on IAF and IN big time. The J&K issue right after independence started to focus our acute vision on Indian Army and its number started to move up with time progressing. The size was justified with every new threat we met afterwards.
Jump to 1962 and post that due to the challenges we faced, it was decided that IA will be 25 divisions from 10 divisions with 8 division added to the China front and shifting of Eastern command center from Lucknow to Kolkata. This increase in size helped us in 1965 and 1971 and suddenly we figured that a larger division numbers work wonderfully for us.
Enter the 80s and we were seeing the Afghanistan scenario and India also changed a bit with 3 armored division and added rapid division for credible deterrence angle against our western neighbor. At the time of Operation Blue Star, and later, the diversion of our strategic reserves to Sri Lanka; the need had been felt for a six division sized force for internal security tasks. So we upsized again.
1989 was again a turning point.. It was the end of Afghanistan crisis and Pakistan was no more in two front wars.. It was able to deploy all towards its eastern neighbor. This was a big blow to Indian forces number as technically the deploy able numbers in border areas and at the start of any military conflict was very much comparable for both the countries. again the planners emphasised on numbers but could not do much as were facing economic issues.
Early 90s the economic revolution by MMS started and 1998 we went nuclear followed by 1999 Kargil. Post Kargil Review Military leadership and access and command changed a lot and 30 additional Battalions of RR was raised among other changes in manpower.. In a short time before a major change could come, out came a new strategy called Cold Start and it resulted in creation of the South-Western Command and a minor rejig with dividing certain divisions and allocating mobilized division to western command.
In the time that followed, People like Gen J J Singh kind of clearly showed that we are over reliant on J&K and Western border security only and over time post 1962 have neglected Eastern border. So a reorientation happened with some divisions moved out of J&K and finishing of counter insurgency ops in Mizoram, Tripura and Nagaland all towards India China Border. Also 2 additional division were raised to supplement such deployments. The realistic demand portrayed was need of 2 mountain strike corps for our Himalayan borders and out came creation of MSC.
So mota moti or in a nutshell with every grave situation we faced as a country, we increased the IA numbers and presented ourselves with a credible solution that now with more boots we are completely safe and in future the past adventures wont ever get repeated.
But the fact is our whole modernization lacks
- political will and support
- guidance
- proper planning and thus is haphazard
- strategic changes
- organisational changes
- budgetary considerations
- evolving time wise technological considerations
In reality with the real threats that we face we as a country Technological substitution for Manpower should have been considered properly.
- But this idea was not given much weight age as during Kargil it was observed that hastily planned downsizing just before Kargil caused us to be in Back foot (refer Mule and Pioneer) and we in knee jerk raised more divisions. (Refer RR expansion and new additions)
- Proxy war, Terrorism, insurgencies and extremism in certain portions of the country kept a continuous need of boots instead of technology as well.
- End result we still maintain a mammoth 1.1 Million force and we justify the need of it.
- We dont showcase that each soldier is not modernized or properly equipped as per changing times (pls refer Bullet Proof Jacket as a case in example of basic things not there) but justify we still need a large forces size.
So the point being made was equip technologically certain sections of this large armed forces / key units/formations so that they can act as specific units of excellence. This was touted a s multi tier system in forces and we can justify the million plus army size. This is irrespective of our changing /evolving global position or threat scenarios or scope of technology absorption like Israeli Solution of Border Management which may help us reduce the boots needed on the ground. We still follow our old grand schemes of yesteryears and are hampered that isues plaguing our Countries National security have not reduced thereby providing no chance of a political will to discuss such pruning with armed forces.
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In simple words History and historical events are dictating the size and we as a country still believe more from boots on the field aspect. Probably this is also supported by a growing economy which does not allow a 3%-4% kind of Military spending in terms of GDP bcz technology is always costly and manpower is cheap (of course now with salaries, training cost and One Rank One Pension may change the dimension based on outflows).
The Islands of Excellence concept where we equip very well technological advancements to certain units is a flawed concept again. Of course we justify multi tier technological absorption again due to budgetary consideration as well.
Lastly Forces all through have been a very respectable and descent form of employment for youths of our country. with a growing young population and a limited employment scope and benefit in other sections of the industry, the forces service will always be tempting (beyond patriotic point). The economic prosperity and scope of employment options are also needed to help provide alternative career options for our youths as well.
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I am tagging few more ppl who i am sure can provide interesting perspectives
@Abingdonboy @hellfire @Joe Shearer @third eye @MilSpec @anant_s @Omega007 @COLDHEARTED AVIATOR @scorpionx and others
and thanks for the tag Spectre.
In case i am wrong in some perspective, pls do bear with me and correct me on that as i tried pointing things in very very brief manner.
