IS PAKISTAN INTERESTED IN THE TURKISH TFX

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Beating drums over something that is still in "papers" and ignoring something already in the air for four years, always attracted by "door k dhol"

In general you're correct, but we don't judge specific cases based on generalities.

In the case of its next-generation fighter hopes, the PAF has to weigh several considerations.

Yes, the J-31 is already flying in the air, but did you know that the PLAAF or even PLAN have not committed to the platform for their own needs? Last time AVIC spoke, it was in negotiations with those parties, but as of today, the J-31 does not have a domestic customer in China.

Why is this important?

Well, developing a next-generation fighter isn't cheap; a good design would require at least several billion dollars in R&D. In other words, when it comes to a next-gen design, you are paying for both the cost of materials and labour as well as the R&D overhead.

Equation: [Cost of Material/Labour] + [Cost of R&D].

If the R&D costs $3 billion and the cost of material and labour for each jet is $50 million, then for 50 planes you are looking at spending a total of $5.5 billion. The unit cost is $110 million.

Now if the PLAAF steps in and says, "we'll buy 100 units" then the situation changes. The R&D ($3bn) + $50m per plane for 150 planes would cost a total of $10.5bn, which is $70 million per plane.

If there aren't enough units being produced to distribute the R&D overhead, then the unit cost (on paper) of each fighter will be higher. AVIC is very openly asking for a foreign customer to share the R&D overhead as well as serve as the launch customer for the fighter. As of yet, AVIC will not promise a domestic Chinese customer (and even if it does, keep in mind that China bailed from its commitment to buy 200 JF-17s).

So ... the PAF is now left with the question of whether it can handle the R&D overhead on its own. Unlike the JF-17, the FC-31 is a much more complex and high-tech platform, and there will be issues along the developmental track. One has to anticipate delays, technical issues, etc, and if they occur, the PAF will have to pay (and in turn add that to the R&D). Hence the unit cost of each fighter will keep climbing *unless* the PAF adds more orders.

On the other hand, the Turkish TFX is ultimately for the Turkish Air Force. If the Turkish Air Force wants 200 TFX, then it will carry the R&D overhead and serve as the main launch customer. Pakistan is a non-factor to the success of the TFX program, but Pakistani support is a necessity for the FC-31.

This ends up with an interesting situation. Imagine if Pakistan just had $3 billion to spend on a next-generation fighter. It could either commit that amount to AVIC for the development of the FC-31, which could be cheaper than the TFX in the end, but run the risk of having no money afterward to actually buy that fighter. Remember, it is $3bn (for R&D) + the amount it costs to actually produce the fighters.

OR

The PAF could take that $3bn and spend on buying 20-30 TFX and at least have the fighter in the end.

This is what the PAF has to carefully examine. The entire situation could change if Beijing decides to fully invest in the FC-31 (i.e. take away with the R&D expense) for the sake of having an export fighter. But as of now, AVIC does not have that support.

 

[Signalian]

Anything coming from Turkey is not fulfilling the criteria so far.

 

[The SC]

In general you're correct, but we don't judge specific cases based on generalities.

In the case of its next-generation fighter hopes, the PAF has to weigh several considerations.

Yes, the J-31 is already flying in the air, but did you know that the PLAAF or even PLAN have not committed to the platform for their own needs? Last time AVIC spoke, it was in negotiations with those parties, but as of today, the J-31 does not have a domestic customer in China.

Why is this important?

Well, developing a next-generation fighter isn't cheap; a good design would require at least several billion dollars in R&D. In other words, when it comes to a next-gen design, you are paying for both the cost of materials and labour as well as the R&D overhead.

Equation: [Cost of Material/Labour] + [Cost of R&D].

If the R&D costs $3 billion and the cost of material and labour for each jet is $50 million, then for 50 planes you are looking at spending a total of $5.5 billion. The unit cost is $110 million.

Now if the PLAAF steps in and says, "we'll buy 100 units" then the situation changes. The R&D ($3bn) + $50m per plane for 150 planes would cost a total of $10.5bn, which is $70 million per plane.

If there aren't enough units being produced to distribute the R&D overhead, then the unit cost (on paper) of each fighter will be higher. AVIC is very openly asking for a foreign customer to share the R&D overhead as well as serve as the launch customer for the fighter. As of yet, AVIC will not promise a domestic Chinese customer (and even if it does, keep in mind that China bailed from its commitment to buy 200 JF-17s).

So ... the PAF is now left with the question of whether it can handle the R&D overhead on its own. Unlike the JF-17, the FC-31 is a much more complex and high-tech platform, and there will be issues along the developmental track. One has to anticipate delays, technical issues, etc, and if they occur, the PAF will have to pay (and in turn add that to the R&D). Hence the unit cost of each fighter will keep climbing *unless* the PAF adds more orders.

On the other hand, the Turkish TFX is ultimately for the Turkish Air Force. If the Turkish Air Force wants 200 TFX, then it will carry the R&D overhead and serve as the main launch customer. Pakistan is a non-factor to the success of the TFX program, but Pakistani support is a necessity for the FC-31.

This ends up with an interesting situation. Imagine if Pakistan just had $3 billion to spend on a next-generation fighter. It could either commit that amount to AVIC for the development of the FC-31, which could be cheaper than the TFX in the end, but run the risk of having no money afterward to actually buy that fighter. Remember, it is $3bn (for R&D) + the amount it costs to actually produce the fighters.

OR

The PAF could take that $3bn and spend on buying 20-30 TFX and at least have the fighter in the end.

This is what the PAF has to carefully examine. The entire situation could change if Beijing decides to fully invest in the FC-31 (i.e. take away with the R&D expense) for the sake of having an export fighter. But as of now, AVIC does not have that support.

How come AVIC is still working on the FC-31 v2? It has some kind of support supposedly!
Pakistan should commit a few hundred million dollars to the TFX program and send a few engineers/scientists to Turkey, because the program is going to be highly sophisticated and thus very beneficial technology wise..Even RR is getting involved for the Engine and for tank engines too! So my take is that pakistan will get a lot of benefits by participating, even if the amount of money is symbolic..

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

How come AVIC is still working on the FC-31 v2? It has some kind of support supposedly!
Pakistan should commit a few hundred million dollars to the TFX program and send a few engineers/scientists to Turkey, because the program is going to be highly sophisticated and thus very beneficial technology wise..Even RR is getting involved for the Engine and for tank engines too! So my take is that pakistan will get a lot of benefits by participating, even if the amount of money is symbolic..

AVIC is a state-owned enterprise, yes, but it still operates at relative arms-length from Beijing. Not everything it does necessarily has the backing of domestic users or the Chinese governments. That money AVIC is putting into the J-31 program at the moment, expect it and Beijing to want to make a return on the investment, somehow.

 

[The SC]

AVIC is a state-owned enterprise, yes, but it still operates at relative arms-length from Beijing. Not everything it does necessarily has the backing of domestic users or the Chinese governments. That money AVIC is putting into the J-31 program at the moment, expect it and Beijing to want to make a return on the investment, somehow.

Doesn't this mean some guarantee for the continuation of the program, since both have committed time, energy and money to it?

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Doesn't this mean some guarantee for the continuation of the program, since both have committed time, energy and money to it?

Not necessarily. AVIC itself is saying that there won't be an FC-31 without an export partner to help share R&D costs and to serve as the launch customer. In other words, the success of the FC-31 seems to be dependent (at least for now) on securing that export customer. Yes, some R&D is being footed, but not all, at least not enough to make the production ready FC-31 (which AVIC is conditioning on the availability of a partner).

The R&D work is valuable in of itself, but it doesn't appear to be at the level necessary to bring a production ready fighter - for that, AVIC is looking for an export client (who in turn would share in the development funding).

As of today, the bulk of emerging next-gen fighters seem to cost $7-10 billion in terms of development. If AVIC is covering a big chunk of the R&D requirement, then the prospective partner could just be on the hook for $3 billion U.S. Unfortunately for Pakistan, $3bn is a lot of money (and we can go back to my earlier post about costs).

The PAF is looking at two options:

1. Spending $3bn in order to make the FC-31 a reality, but be at risk of not having enough to actually buy units.

2. Spending $3bn on an off-the-shelf next-gen fighter which will be a reality, but take the risk of waiting for a horse that might get aborted.

The saving grace would be the Chinese gov't giving AVIC the necessary funding to bring the FC-31 to fruition, and in turn, enable AVIC to offer the FC-31 as an off-the-shelf fighter.

 

[The SC]

Not necessarily. AVIC itself is saying that there won't be an FC-31 without an export partner to help share R&D costs and to serve as the launch customer. In other words, the success of the FC-31 seems to be dependent (at least for now) on securing that export customer. Yes, some R&D is being footed, but not all, at least not enough to make the production ready FC-31 (which AVIC is conditioning on the availability of a partner).

The R&D work is valuable in of itself, but it doesn't appear to be at the level necessary to bring a production ready fighter - for that, AVIC is looking for an export client (who in turn would share in the development funding).

As of today, the bulk of emerging next-gen fighters seem to cost $7-10 billion in terms of development. If AVIC is covering a big chunk of the R&D requirement, then the prospective partner could just be on the hook for $3 billion U.S. Unfortunately for Pakistan, $3bn is a lot of money (and we can go back to my earlier post about costs).

The PAF is looking at two options:

1. Spending $3bn in order to make the FC-31 a reality, but be at risk of not having enough to actually buy units.

2. Spending $3bn on an off-the-shelf next-gen fighter which will be a reality, but take the risk of waiting for a horse that might get aborted.

The saving grace would be the Chinese gov't giving AVIC the necessary funding to bring the FC-31 to fruition, and in turn, enable AVIC to offer the FC-31 as an off-the-shelf fighter.

China should pour in the necessary funds, it might get it back in 10 folds due to the limited availability of the 5th generation fighters. The only one on the market for now is the US F-35, and PAK-FA is coming around 2020, so there is a niche in there and a market share for the taking..provided they come up with a potent and competitively priced 5th G fighter..

 

[dani958]

without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter

 

[salarsikander]

without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter

Bull shit.

 

[Hassan Guy]

without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter

thats true

Bull shit.

nope he's right, especially 5th gen

 

[Zain Malik]

thats true


nope he's right, especially 5th gen

In.what sense....??? He is right...

 

[salarsikander]

nope he's right, especially 5th gen

Yes Like Isreal can then ? One learn from blocks. They have quite good established Aeronautical industry

 

[Hassan Guy]

In.what sense....??? He is right...

5th gen is more complicated, Turkey doesn't even produce a 4th gen fighter.

 

[Zain Malik]

without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter

Turkey is making F-16s not a child's play..
They have funds and capability both.

5th gen is more complicated, Turkey doesn't even produce a 4th gen fighter.

And what about f_16 isn't it a 4th gen..

 

[Ultima Thule]

In.what sense....??? He is right...

i think he refers to engine